Tagesarchiv für den 04.08.2009

Ben Bittrolff

Tax Dollars Wasted: GMAC Looses Billions

FN: Your tax dollars being wasted as quickly as humanly possible! To properly calculate the true cost of bailing out GM and Chrylser you'd have to include the costs of bailing out GMAC and that awful "cash for clunkers" program.

It will take a long time and a lot of taxes to recoup these vas sums. Our poor children. (Poor, as in they won't have any money.)

GMAC Posts Wider Quarterly Loss as Loan Defaults Rise (Update1): "GMAC Inc., the lender that received $13.5 billion in government bailout funds, reported a $3.9 billion second-quarter loss tied to rising loan defaults and said it may sell part of its insurance operations.

The loss, GMAC’s seventh in the past eight quarters, rose from $2.48 billion a year earlier. Results included a $1.2 billion tax charge caused by converting to a corporation, the Detroit-based company said today in a statement. The auto- finance unit’s loss increased to $727 million from $717 million, while the deficit from mortgage operations shrank to $1.84 billion from $1.9 billion, GMAC said. Excluding one-time charges, GMAC’s quarterly loss was about $400 million.

GMAC said the recession drove up defaults on home and auto loans, and the company will trim operations to save $1 billion annually by 2010. The U.S. took a 35 percent stake earlier this year, enabling GMAC to keep lending to customers of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Group LLC after the automakers entered bankruptcy. While government incentives boosted car sales and GMAC’s revenue, losses on older loans are hobbling profit."
I almost showed a bullish study this morning for all the bulls who've been screaming for one. But when an indicator like T21112 hits a new all time high, it deserves a mention. T2112 measures the percent of stocks that are trading at least 2 standard deviations above their 40-day moving average. It set an all time-high in May and I noted it then. It went on to peak 2 days later (May 6th). After that the market experienced a 3-day pullback and a bit of a consolidation.

Monday it barely broke the old record. To provide some perspective as to how extended this indicator is I've shown below the full history going back to 1986.

(click to enlarge)








Spikes anywhere near what we are seeing now have been unsustainable in the past. This would seem to suggest a pullback is likely. (Of course, as the bulls will point out - there have been a lot of things suggesting that lately and the market has ignored most all of them.)

P.S. I also noticed T2112 got a mention from Cobra in his last commentary.
Ben Bittrolff

GDP and Stocks

FN: The post Further On GDP and Stocks over at Sudden Debt breaks down the components of GDP and explains their effect on the economy putting real hard numbers on the points I argued in my two posts, Employment: Not a Lagging Indicator at these Levels and Watch the Divergence Between Earnings and Revenues.

U.S. Incomes Fall 1.3%, Biggest Drop in Four Years (Update1): " U.S. personal incomes tumbled 1.3 percent in June, more than forecast and the biggest drop in four years, signaling that consumer spending will take time to recover."

FN: This ain't gonna be pretty. The deflationary feedback loop is in full force now and almost certainly cannot be broken. The ammunition has already been spent.
According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report, the TIM Sentiment Index (TSI) fell into bearish territory as it decreased 2.4% week over week to 49.84 on July 30th, from 51.06 on July 23rd (see last week's post, and previous post and the youDevise website for additional information on the TIM report). Nonetheless, the index increased 9.3% on Thursday. New short ideas as a percentage of all new ideas sent to investment managers increased from 28.26% a week ago to 46.92% on Tuesday, then back to 33.19%. Shorts are 36.72% of ideas in July and 40.95% for the year. As result, the index is indicating that while brokers are generally bullish with their new ideas, they have increased their profit taking as the market continues to rise.

As for individual securities in the U.S. and North America, Viacom (VIAb), GSI Commerce (GSIC), and Adtran (ADTN) were stocks recommended as longs by institutional brokers, while Cymer (CYMI), Saks (SKS), and Priceline (PCLN) were recommended as shorts. The industrials, financials, and consumer staples sectors had long broker sentiment for the week, while the utility, energy, and information technology sectors had short sentiment.
"I think in the long run we will have inflation because the Federal Reserve and the academia want cash money to be worthless" Marc Faber, TV interview on July 28th

Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world. Dr. Doom also trades currencies and commodity futures like Gold and Oil.
"I'm convinced that farmland is going to be one of the best investments of our time" Jim Rogers in ContrarianProfits
Stonefoxcapital

Performance Review: Net Payout Yields

Results from Year 1 on Marketocracy.com were 6.3% better then the market.RETURNS Last Week 0.48% Last Month 8.66% Last 3 Months 16.59% Last 6 Months 28.14% Last 12 Months N/A Last 2 Years N/A Last 3 Years N/A Last 5 Years N/A Since Inception -14.23% (Annualized) -14.23%