Die verstaatlichte größte US-Hypothekenbank Fannie Mae berichtet in ihrem Quartalsbericht zum 2. Quartal 2009 von einem Verlust von -14,78 Mrd. Dollar, nach -23,185 Mrd. Dollar Verlust in Q1 2009! Dies ist das achte Quartal in Folge mit einem Verlust! Die Verluste kumulieren sich in acht Quartalen auf gigantische -101,63 Mrd. Dollar!
> Die Quartalsgewinne/Verluste seit 1999. Selbst seit 1999 belaufen sich die kumulierten Verluste auf -57,1 Mrd. Dollar. <
Fannie Mae und die verstaatlichte Schwester Freddie Mac haben Hypotheken in einem Volumen von 5,4 Billionen Dollar vergeben. Ohne diese Zombies und ihrer aggressiven Kreditvergabe hätte es die US-Immobilienblase nie gegeben.
Fannie Mae hat Ende Juni 2009 ein ausstehendes Hypothekenkreditvolumen von 3,19 Billionen Dollar! 2,582 Billionen Dollar an Hypothekenkredite sind verbrieft und garantiert! 144,2 Mrd. Dollar der von Fannie Mae verbrieften Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) waren Ende Juni 2009 notleidend! 26,3 Mrd. Dollar an notleidenden Krediten sind direkt in der Bilanz von Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae nahm in Q2 2009 weitere 18,8 Mrd. Dollar an Rückstellungen zur Abdeckung von Kreditrisiken vor!
Es ist noch lange kein Ende bei der Abwicklung der US-Immobilienblase in Sicht. Im 1. Quartal 2009 standen 26% bzw. 14 Millionen Hypotheken in den USA unter Wasser. Unter Wasser steht dafür, dass der Wert der Immobilien unter dem der aufgenommenen Hypothek steht. Die Deutsche Bank geht in einer aktuellen Studie davon aus, dass bis 2011 gewaltige 48% aller US-Hypotheken unter Wasser stehen. Dies wären immerhin 25 Millionen Haushalte und somit noch eine Menge Lehrgeld für die exzessiven Hypothekenkreditevergeber wie Fannie Mae.
Über das staatliche GSE Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements (PSPA)-Programm hängt der Staat mit je 100 Mrd. Dollar in Vorzugsaktien bei Fannie Mae und Freddie Mac voll mit drin. Die FED wiederum hat bereits Mortgage Backed Securities in Höhe von bis zu 200 Mrd. Dollar aufgekauft und garantiert MBS-Papiere aller Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) zu denen auch Fannie Mae gehört, in Höhe von maximal 1,25 Billionen Dollar, wobei Garantien von 467 Mrd. Dollar bereits abgerufen wurden!
Der Hypothekenmoloch wird noch etliche Milliarden Dollar an Steuergelder verschlingen!
Since the markets were quiet today, I figured it would be a good time share this excellent documentary around inflation.
Make sure you watch the Zimbabwe section in part 2 if you don't have time to watch all of this.
Part 3 paints a frightening picture of what the future may look like based on historical hyperinflation comparisons.
What's also interesting is how real estate did not keep pace with the cost of living during Germany's bout with hyperinflation. Apparantly back then they realized it's more important to eat versus spending your money on a McMansion:)
AGRICULTURE(STOCKS AND FOOD), GOLD, AND SILVER are very important holdings at this point.
Production rates have to pick-up, and not because final demand is picking-up, but because inventory levels are so low.
Earnings are a function of production. Top-line growth will pick-up. This will cause the second half GDP to be higher.
Cost controls were not a one quarter phenomenon, but will provide even more operating leverage to the upside going forward.
Worries of lower consumer spending hurting GDP are overblown. Over the last 30 years nearly all of the growth of consumer spending as a percent of GDP has come from health care expenditures. It is an illusion that we have always had isolated increased spending. When spending did increase, so did wealth. Debt increased $6 trillion, but assets increase $24 trillion over the same time frame.
While we will see sales growth this year (which is counter to conventional wisdom), 2010 estimates that are calling for a 22% gain in earnings might be a little high.
Finally, while there is a possibility of a market correction later in the year, an overshoot to 1,100 on the S&P 500 is very plausible. Positive moves in the market will be supported by the strength of Q2 earnings and the probability of second half earnings power.
Mark Axelowitz, director of wealth management at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, and adviser to very high net worth individuals, was recently on CNBC's Fast Money program discussing trends that he has noticed among ultra high net worth individuals (see CNBC article).
Just as many investors are jumping back into stocks, essentially afraid that they may have missed the recent rising market, ultra high new worth individuals are more cautious, and appear to be worried about inflation, the dollar, and of course, taxes. This macro-economic perspective has kept the rich from chasing the recent rally, and instead has them investing heavily in fixed income instead of equities as they shy away from diving into the market with both feet. The rich stay rich for a reason. Maybe it is time to pay attention.
Two days of sideways action has left me little to say this morning. One notable from yesterday was the very low CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio. In June I published a study that triggered again last night and was noted by the Quantifinder both intraday and after the close yesterday. Below is a link to that study.
Also this morning I added CSS Analytics to the blogroll. Rarely do I add brand new blogs to the blogroll but David has been publishing some very interesting work on some indicators he devleloped. If you haven't already, it's well worth checking out.
> Die Quartalsgewinne/Verluste seit 1999. Selbst seit 1999 belaufen sich die kumulierten Verluste auf -57,1 Mrd. Dollar. <
