Tagesarchiv für den 11.08.2009

Querschuss
11.08.2009

“China’s Exporte mit -23% im Juli”

Chinas Exporte befinden sich auch im Juli 2009 im negativen Bereich und dies bereits den neunten Monat in Folge. Die Exporte sanken um die dritthöchste monatliche Rate im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat seit Beginn der Datenerhebung durch die chinesischen Zollbehörden, General Administration of Customs (GAC) im Jahr 1995!

Die Exporte brachen um saisonbereinigte -23% zum Vorjahresmonat weg, auf ein Volumen von 105,42 Mrd. Dollar, nach dem Exporthoch von 136,7 Mrd. Dollar im Juli 2008! Im Vergleich zum Vormonat stiegen die Exporte allerdings um +10,5% an! Dies erklärt sich aber damit, dass der Juli ein starker Monat für Exporte ist. Im Jahr 2008 stiegen im Juli die Exporte ebenfalls, um +12,8% zum Vormonat.

> Die prozentuale Veränderung des Exportvolumens im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat. Seit November 2008 geht es mit den Exportraten abwärts. Damit endete eine 7 Jahre andauernde Expansion im Export auf Monatsbasis. Im Mai 2009 wurde der vorläufige Tiefpunkt bei der Schrumpfung des Exportvolumens mit -26,4% markiert. Quelle Daten: Mofcom.gov.cn <

> Betrachtet man den Chart mit dem Exportvolumen in Mrd. Dollar, könnte man allerdings beinahe eine V-förmige Erholung erkennen. Das Hoch beim Exportvolumen wurde im Juli 2008 mit 136,6 Mrd. Dollar markiert! Das Tief im Februar 2009 mit 65 Mrd. Dollar. <

Die Exporte in die USA schrumpften im Juli um -16,1% im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat, die in die EU um -20,7%, nach Deutschland um -14,8% und in die ASEAN-Staaten um -22,4%.

Die Importe stiegen um +8,7% zum Vormonat, auf 94,791 Mrd. Dollar, nach 87,16 Mrd. Dollar im Juni 2009. Im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat fallen die Importe noch um -14,9%!

Der Handelsbilanzüberschuss steigt auf 10,63 Mrd. Dollar, nach dem geringsten Überschuss seit 2 Jahren im Juni mit 8,25 Mrd. Dollar.

Bei einigen Rohstoffen zog das Importvolumen auch im Juli weiter an. Die Eisenerzimporte stiegen im Juli um +5% auf 58,1 Mio. Tonnen gegenüber dem Vormonat und +31,8% zum Vorjahresmonat. Rohölimporte stiegen sogar um +18% zum Vormonat auf 19,63 Millionen metrische Tonnen (4,6 Mio. Barrel täglich). Insgesamt kaufte China im Juli an den Weltmärkten Rohstoffe im Wert von 13,8 Mrd. Dollar ein. Ob der Verbrauch wirklich so stark steigt oder man einfach wertlose Dollar in werthaltige reale Rohstoffe tauscht und damit gleichzeitig die Lager füllt bleibt auch weiterhin die Frage.

Das chinesische staatliche Konjunkturpaket in Höhe von 4 Billionen Yuan bzw. 585 Mrd. Dollar fließt direkt in die reale Wirtschaft vor allem in die Infrastruktur und nicht in die Stützung des Finanzsystems! Dies belegen u.a. auch die Daten der Investitionen in Sachanlagen, wie etwa Fabriken und Immobilien im städtischen Bereich, welche in den ersten 7 Monaten 2009 gegenüber dem Vorjahreszeitraum um +32,9% stiegen. Die Industrieproduktion stieg im Juli um +10,8% im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat! Allerdings fließen Teile der Kredite in die Spekulation mit Immobilien, Aktien und Rohstoffen!

Neben dem Konjunkturpaket ist der zweite Pfeiler, der die Krise in China bisher abpufferte, die exzessive Kreditvergabe. Hier jedoch wurde im Juli ordentlich auf die Bremse getreten. Um -76,74% schrumpften die vergebenen Kredite zum Vormonat. Dies dürfte sich deutlich negativ auf die künftige Entwicklung der Wirtschaft auswirken!

> Die Kreditvergabe der Banken sinkt im Juli auf 355,9 Mrd. Yuan, nach 1530,4 Mrd. Yuan im Vormonat. <

In den ersten 7 Monaten kumulieren sich die neu vergebenen Kredite auf fulminante 7,7226 Billionen Yuan (1,135 Billionen Dollar)! Dies ist immer noch das 2,7-fache der Kreditvergabe aus dem Vorjahreszeitraum mit 2,827 Billionen Yuan (415 Mrd. Dollar)!

Die Bremsung scheint auch dringend notwendig, denn die bisherige exzessive Kreditvergabe und Geldpolitik feuert nicht nur die reale Wirtschaft an, sondern auch eine Spekulationsblasenbildung am Immobilien- und Aktienmarkt. In den ersten 7 Monaten 2009 stiegen die Immobilienverkäufe in China um +60% zum Vorjahreszeitraum. Der chinesische Aktienmarkt explodierte regelrecht, der Shanghai Composite Index liegt heute mit 3264,7 Punkten um +79,2% über seinem Tief am 31.12.2008 mit 1820,81 Punkten! Die Chinesen versuchen nun mit der Eindämmung der Kreditvergabe auch den rapide steigenden Anteil an faulen Krediten zu verhindern.

Man darf gespannt sein, welche Bremsspuren die verringerte Kreditvergabe an den Konjunkturdaten der nächsten Monate hinterlässt.

Querschuesse-Forum

Kontakt: info.querschuss@yahoo.de

Gary
11.08.2009

Dilemma


We have quite the quandary developing. Everything from Dow Theory to the Coppock curve to the cross of the 50 day EMA above the 200 EMA is suggesting that we've entered a new cyclical bull market (within the context of a much larger secular bear market).

However that means that March would either have marked the single longest 4 year cycle in history at almost 7 years or we just saw a one year 4 year cycle. Neither one of those has very high odds of occurring since neither one of them has ever occurred.

Now you see why I have no desire to trade this secular bear market. This thing is going to throw every curve ball it can at investors. Any one who can make money in that kind of environment is just plain lucky. And counting on luck probably isn't a very dependable way to make money.

So the question is, did we just see the longest 4 year cycle in history and the trend is now up, or did the 4 year cycle bottom in Jan./Mar. of 08 and this is the single greatest, most deceptive bear market rally ever?
Guy M. Lerner
11.08.2009

On The Line: Credibility

The equity markets are at another one of those "critical" junctures.

I use the quotations because the markets are always at another one of those "critical" junctures, and I just laugh to myself as I wonder at how critical can "critical" be. But maybe this juncture is more critical than others because after multiple bubbles and tremendous wealth destruction, analysts are once again pounding the table that the "mother of all bull markets" lies ahead, and investors, who have been burned for 10 years running, are being asked to come to the party. Again!

But this party is fraught with all sorts of problems, and the least of which is the big disconnect between the fundamentals, which are improving, and the 50% rally from the March, 2009 bottom. The point here isn't to argue that such a move is justified or not, but to suggest that most investors remain wary of Wall Street and all it represents. After 10 years of losses, Wall Street doesn't work for most people. Like the bailouts, Wall Street has become and is seen for the privileged few.

But what is really at stake here is credibility, and this is the "critical". The pundits need to get this "call" right, and that is going to be hard to do. Why? Because historically, the consensus rarely gets it right.

Simply put, Wall Street isn't trusted. And why should Main Street trust Wall Street? After all, it isn't like their interests are actually aligned. After years of losses, why would the retail investor trust Wall Street? After being unable to foresee the largest financial disaster of our generation, why would the retail investor trust Wall Street? Wall Street is being blamed for the crisis, yet Wall Street was the first to benefit from government handouts. Once again, why should Main Street trust Wall Street to get it right?

So the rally that started in March, 2009 is at a "critical" juncture. It isn't critical because somehow another 10-20% tacked onto the S&P500 is suddenly going to make Main Street believe in Wall Street. Main Street will still be underwater and by the way, Main Street is too busy building a fortress around itself to worry any longer what happens in the Dow Jones Industrials. Yes, we would all like to see our 401K's and IRA's grow, but if it is one thing we have learned over the past 10 years it is that the riches of Wall Street can be rather fleeting. Main Street has already lost too much in the values of their homes and the values in their retirement accounts for any of this to make a difference. In a way, I suspect Main Street has become indifferent.

However, this rally and its continuation is more critical for the punditry. Their credibility, which is rightfully very low, is at stake like never before.
Rob Hanna
11.08.2009

A Long-Term Look At Put/Call Ratios

In June of 2008 I posted a discussion on the importance of normalizing put/call ratios when considering whether their readings were significant. In that post I showed that the average put/call ratio had risen steadily and substantially from 2000 into mid-2008 when the post was done. I included a “starry night” graph where weekly closing levels of the CBOE Put/Call Ratio were seen as dots and the 40-week moving average was drawn with a line. I’ve reproduced that chart below updated through 8/7/09.

(click to enlarge)


What you’ll notice is that right around the time of the original post the put/call ratio began to decline. In fact the average put/call ratio is now about 20% lower than it was at its peak in ’08. A few thoughts on this:

1) A drop in the average put/call is not something you would expect during the worst bear market 70+ years. The 2000 – 2002 bear market is when the ratio began its 8-year ascension. Did traders actually become more complacent as the market cratered? The VIX action last year would suggest this was not the case. So why the drop in the put/call ratio? I suspect it has much to do with the emerging popularity of inverse ETF’s. With a new hedging tool at traders’ disposal, the demand for puts has waned.
2) “Why” really isn’t a big concern for me. What is important is that my analysis takes this information into account. Normalization remains just as important on the way down as it was on the way up. If last year you were viewing readings of 0.8 or 0.75 as possible complacence, then you need to realize that this year those readings aren’t much below average. And if the pace keeps up they’ll be average by the end of the year. Meanwhile readings that were just slightly above average last year are now fairly extreme.

Normalization can be done a number of different ways. Moving average envelopes around long-term moving averages is one simple way to do it. Another would be to use Bollinger Bands. The exact method is not what’s vital. What’s vital is that your strategies and analysis account for the fact that – like the market – the put/call ratio (and many other gauges) evolves over time.
Guy M. Lerner
11.08.2009

Who Is Left To Buy?

By now you should know that one of my favorite aspects of the Rydex data is the amount of assets in the bullish and leveraged funds versus the amount of assets in the leveraged and bearish funds. Not only do we get to see what direction these market timers think the market will go, but we also get to see how much conviction (i.e., leverage) they have in their beliefs. See figure 1 a daily graph of the S&P500 (symbol: $INX) with the Rydex leveraged bulls (green line) versus the leveraged bears (red line) in the lower panel. Typically, we want to bet against the Rydex market timer even though they only represent a small sample of the overall market.

Figure 1. Rydex Bullish and Leveraged v. Rydex Bearish and Leveraged/ daily

As of yesterday's close, the amount of assets in the bullish and leveraged funds was 2.53 times that in the bearish and leveraged funds, and this represents the highest value since November, 2004.

Figures 2 through 8 are daily charts of the S&P500. The indicator in the lower panel is the ratio of bullish and leveraged assets to the bearish and leveraged assets. The horizontal pink line (over the indicator) is set to a level of 2. Figure 2 runs from October, 2001 to October, 2002; figure 3 runs from October, 2002 to December, 2003; figure 4 runs from December, 2003 to December, 2004; figure 5 runs from December, 2004 to December, 2005; figure 6 runs from December, 2005 to December, 2006; figure 7 runs from December, 2006 to December, 2007; figure 8 is December, 2007 to the present. The gray vertical lines identify those times when the ratio is greater than 2 or above the horizontal pink line.

Figure 2. October, 2001 to October, 2002

Figure 3. October, 2002 to December, 2003

Figure 4. December, 2003 to December, 2004

Figure 5. December, 2004 to December, 2005

Figure 6. December, 2005 to December, 2006

Figure 7. December, 2006 to December, 2007

Figure 8. December, 2007 to Present

I look at this data and many other pieces of data and I ask: where do we go from here? Even if we go higher and even if the sentiment data is wrong, I am convinced I will have a better -more risk adjusted opportunity - ahead of me. That's my story for now!
Bull Bear Trader
11.08.2009

In Case You Missed Them - Some Links of Interest (8/11/09)

Below are some links of interest, just in case you missed them. Some have already been posted to Twitter, and a number are weekend holdovers (a little too long today).
  • Investors are pouring back into ETFs (Financial Times). From April 2008 to the end of last year, the value of global ETFs fell to $711 billion from $805 billion, but now assets invested globally in ETFs have increased to $862 billion. In flows account for roughly half of the rebound, with assets on track to reach $1 trillion by the end of the year.
  • Is it too late for emerging market ETFs (ETF Trends)?
  • Equity funds worldwide posted record weekly inflows, but most of the recent inflows went to developed markets (Asian Investor).
  • No added stimulus from bonus-rich Goldman employees as they are told by their CEO to lay low and not make ostentatious purchases (Here Is The City).
  • While small firms may not have the bonus power of Goldman, they are grabbing up talent as the larger Wall Street firms shed employees (WSJ).
  • It appears that Morgan Stanley has better options traders (The Business Insider- Clusterstock). While taxpayers got 98 cents on the dollar from Goldman Sachs when it bought back its warrants, and 107 cents on the dollar from American Express, Morgan Stanley paid just 68 cents. This saved the company some $400 million (and when we say saved, we mean short changed the taxpayer).
  • Ban on flash equity orders? No problem, just leverage the flash by moving to options (Zero Hedge).
  • A visual of the history of bailouts, 1970-2008 edition (Financial Infographics, HT Barry Ritholtz).
  • Oil prices have risen lately, causing Goldman to warn that as the economy rebounds, crude oil prices are likely to spike again given that the fundamental problems with the commodity markets still exist (The Business Insider - Green Sheet). Goldman went on to say that "Although the financial crisis has been addressed, the commodity crisis has not." (Financial Times) Elizabeth Warren discusses whether the toxic debt problem has really gone away (Clusterstock).
  • Soon, maybe you can buy a new car on eBay (WSJ, Financial Times). Just don't expect a fuel efficient vehicle. Dealers are having a problem keeping cars on the lot (WSJ).
  • Strong sales of coffee helped stimulate McDonald's earnings (Financial Times).
  • The hotel industry is showing some improvement (Calculated Risk).
  • They're back. Hedge fund investors, that is, but they are being selective where they allocate new money (WSJ). Like equities, hedge funds are also up for the year, with convertible arbitrage continuing to work (Bull Bear Trader). Managed futures continue to lag and under-perform.
  • Nonetheless, while hedge fund gained in July, they still underperformed stocks as a whole, with funds up 3.4% on average, while the DJIA, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 varied between 7.4-8.6% (WSJ).
  • Where else are hedge funds investing? Distressed debt. Deals on the rise as investors get aggressive using loan to own strategies (WSJ).
  • But not all funds are still excited, as Tutor Investments is calling the recent move a bear-market rally, and believes that equity markets could decline later this year, creating yet another buying opportunity (Bloomberg). Slowing growth in China, and weak household income growth could create a drag on the global economy and the U.S. market.
  • Is it time to get bearish on Wells Fargo again (hedgetracker.com). Goldman Sachs, Chanos, and Einhorn think so. Although he owns a boat load of Wells Fargo, Buffett's attention may be elsewhere as he appears to be increasing his holdings of foreign government bonds, as opposed to equities (The Telegraph).
  • Speaking of Buffett, today he may feel that derivatives are not that bad after all. As it turns out, derivatives added $2.36 billion to earnings for Berkshire Hathaway, compared with $689 million a year earlier (Bloomberg).
  • How is derivative trading going? Good if you are the ICE. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is extending its lead in CDS clearing, clearing a notional value of more than $1.7 trillion since March as the joint venture between the CME group and Citadel hedge fund has yet to launch (Financial Times).
  • While trading is up, understanding may be down as credit derivative models get more complex (Reuters - Felix Salmon).
  • As for the U.S. market, volume is, well, anemic to say the least, as the SPY volume hits a low for 2009 (Zerohedge). I guess it is time to turn the machines back on. Then again, it is August (ETF Digest).
  • The last two reporting periods have been the best for the markets over the last 8 years (Bespoke Investment Group). Does this signal the beginning of a bull market, as in 2002?
  • Maybe we need a new useless index. Will learning proper etiquette be the new hemline index (Financial Armageddon)?
  • Lowry Research's has reversed its position and is issuing an intermediate trend buy signal (Trader's Narrative).
  • The VIX is signaling an S&P 500 swoon as September approaches as traders bet the VIX would increase 13% over the next five weeks - with the market moving in the opposite direction, 81% of the time (Bloomberg). But is this the correct analysis? (Daily Options Report)
  • A look at the state of short-term mean reversion (MarketSci Blog).
  • Now that we finally got a Dow Theory by signal, it is probably time to sell (Raymond James - Jeff Saut). HT Pragmatic Capitalist.
  • Michael Steinhardt, Leon Cooperman, and David Gerstenhaber go on CNBC and discuss the state of the hedge fund industry (CNBC Video, The Big Picture, Zerohedge). Steinhardt mentions that "No one is long-term bullish."


Jeff
11.08.2009

Bond Talk With a Veteran Credit Trader

Just a quick note.


I wanted to share a conversation I had today with a veteran bond trader who has been on the street for decades. Let's take a look at the bond auctions today:


My Take:

As you can see above, the first auction was pretty ugly. The Primary Dealers were forced to buy up about 65% of the auctions. The bid to covers were respectable on both auctions.

Now lets get into my discussion with a my veteran bond trading source. He believes that the PD's aren't exactly being forced to buy these auctions. In fact, they most likely want to own of these bonds in the current trading environment.

Why?

He explained an classic old school Wall St bond game to me that's been going on for decades:

Basically, the bond market will often sell off treasuries for several days before an auction so that they can pick up the treasuries on the cheap at the auctions. They then turn around and make a nice spread on them when the auctions get done because treasuries usually rise once the auctions are closed out and the BTC is acceptable.

The bond traders make a nice spread once the treasuries rise post auction because they can sell what they bought at a higher price.

He explained that this is one of the reasons why Wall St trading profits have been so astronomical recently. He added that the major players in this game like Goldman are thriving in this environment, and they are also benefiting from less competition with Bear Stearns and Lehman out of the mix. Lehman was a major player in bonds.

As a result, with less competition and high volatility in bonds, Wall St is thriving(for now) as they participate in these auctions.

If you look at what yields did last week heading into the auctions today, it appears my source is dead right. Treasuries sold off hard as the 10-year yield soared to almost 3.9% by Friday. This allowed the PD to gobble up treasuries on the cheap at today's auctions. They then simpply turn around and sell them at a tidy profit as treasuries rose and yields dropped during the day.

A case could be made that high PD participation in these auctions could actually be bullish in the near term because the primary dealers are able to trade them so effectively. Remember folks, there is still a ton of demand for treasuries by people like us. Many want no part of the stock market right now so the Primary Dealers have plenty of cutomers to sell to.

Don't get me wrong, I believe the world is backing away from our debt. However, its not happening in droves yet, and this sets up a highly volatile trading environment in bonds where good bond traders can make a fortune.

This trade(for now) is working most of the time unless the BTC is awful(which is rare).

The Bottom Line:

Wall St is a mighty smart bunch of thieves, and they are finding ways to make money in this market. I still believe that the bond market will eventually collapse as a result of the massive deficits that we are running.

For now however, Wall St is laughing all the way to the bank as they use your taxpayer dollars to make billions in stocks and bonds.