Das deutsche reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) ist laut Statistischen Bundesamt im zweiten Quartal 2009 preis-, saison- und kalenderbereinigt um 0,3 % (1. Schätzung) zum Vorquartal gestiegen. Im Vergleich zum Vorjahresquartal sank allerdings das reale BIP, die Summe aller erwirtschafteten Waren, Güter und Dienstleistungen um -7,1%. Dies ist der höchste prozentuale Einbruch, der jemals in einem Quartal ermittelt wurde! Dieses nicht ganz unwichtige Detail, fällt allerding in vielen Mainstream-Medien gleich mal komplett durch die Roste. Stattdessen prangen Überschriften wie z.B. diese: "Wie wir die Rezession besiegten"!
> Die Entwicklung des BIPs seit Q1 1995, blau die prozentuale Veränderung zum Vorquartal und rot in % zum Vorjahresquartal. <
Das nominale BIP stieg um +1,6% auf 588,80 Mrd. Euro zum Vorquartal und fiel kräftig um -5,9% zum Vorjahresquartal, von 625,60 Mrd. Euro.
Höhere Staatsausgaben und ein noch stärkerer Einbruch bei den Importen als bei den Exporten sind für dieses kleine Plus beim BIP im Vergleich zum Vorquartal verantwortlich. Denn die Differenz aus Exporten minus Importen fließt ins BIP ein, was durchaus zu der kuriosen Situation führen kann, das weniger Binnennachfrage zu einem höheren BIP führen kann, wenn im Gegenzug die Exporte weniger stark fallen.
Aus diesen Daten der ersten Schätzung zum BIP, mit eventuell noch drohenden Revisionen und einem gewaltigen Einbruch zum Vorjahresquartal ein Ende der Rezession zu definieren ist mehr als nur eine unkritische Sichtweise! Hier wird ein weiterhin sehr schwaches Quartal bewusst in ein Rezessionsende umgedeutet. Schönreden, schönfärben waren u.a. bereits feste Bestandteile eines Szenarios das zur Wirtschaft- und Finanzkrise führte, genau wie kreative Buchführung, versagende Ratingagenturen, Aufsichtsräte und Finanzaufsichten, laxe Kreditvergabe und ungezügelte Kreditexpansion, Deregulierung der Finanzmärkte und zu guter letzt die hemmungslose Gier.
I think that's what Wall St is trying to figure out right now. Stocks were flat today as the battle at S&P 1000 rages on between the bulls and the bears. This was the 12th straight day that stocks have traded in a fairly tight range around the 1000 area.
I actually made my first trade in a few months today. I bought some August TBT PUTS before the 30 year auction results at 1PM on a hunch. I figured there was no way in hell the Ponzi machine was going to let a small $15 billion 30 year bond auction get in the way of the spring rally.
The FCB's don't participate much in auctions at the long end of the curve because of their fears around inflation so it was up to the Wall St to gobble up this paper and as usual the bubble boys did not disappoint. I sold my PUTS a few hours later at a nice profit as TBT tanked as a result of the strong 2.5 BTC on the 30 year auction.
For full disclosure: I still remain short treasuries over the long term. TBT is one of the holdings in my long term portfolio.
I continue to avoid trading this market. If you want to put positions on at this point you almost have to think like a criminal and play the bull tape. I also advise getting in and out quick because the stock market has once agin become a bubble for the 3rd time in 10 years. P/E's are once again insanely overvalued. Some forecasters have P/E's at over 100x earnings at this point.
We all know what happens to market bubbles folks. They often pop when you least expect it, and the resulting drop tends to be violent and very painful. If you go long be nimble.
Deutsche Bank Economist: The Exit Strategy Will Be Painful
Deutsche's chief economist Norbert Walter thinks the exit out of this stimulus by the Fed is going to be extremely ugly. I strongly advise you to watch this video. Norbert hits a home run here as far as I am concerned:
My Take:
I loved this guys take on this. He sees a triple U shaped recovery as the economic world works through a series of ticking time bombs that are unavoidable at this point as a result of spending so much money that nobody has.
Norbert also warns of a currency crisis via the US Dollar if one or all of the BRIC's lose confidence in our ability to dig out of our deficits. I couldn't agree more. Lets face it folks:
THE FED HAS CREATED A MULTI TRILLION DOLLAR NIGHTMARE AS A RESULT OF BAILING OUT AMERICA!
How in the hell are we ever going to pay this money back? How can the Fed create an exit strategy when so many parts of our economy are insolvent or bankrupt? I PERSONALLY DON'T SEE AN EXIT STRATEGY HERE WITHOUT CREATING A DEPRESSION!
The problem here folks is if we don't have an exit strategy then the dollar is going to crash as we continue to dig ourselves deeper into debt as more and more companies need to be saved.
Norbert explained above that if the currency collapses, the government is going to be forced to raise rates in order to find buyers for our debt. This will absolutely destroy the banks and the housing market. If these two go down the crapper, the rest of the economy will most assuredly follow.
The reality here is this:
THE GOVERNMENT CAN ONLY BE THE BUYER OF LAST RESORT FOR SO LONG BEFORE IT BANKRUPTS ITSELF!
The economy must recover and the consumer must start to consume once again in order for the Fed to have a viable exit strategy. At this point, we so zero signs of this happening:
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of U.S. households on the verge of losing their homes rose 7 percent from June to July, as the escalating foreclosure crisis continued to outpace government efforts to limit the damage.
Foreclosure filings were up 32 percent from the same month last year, RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday. More than 360,000 households, or one in every 355 homes, received a foreclosure-related notice, such as a notice of default or trustee's sale. That's the highest monthly level since the foreclosure-listing firm began publishing the data more than four years ago.
Banks repossessed more than 87,000 homes in July, up from about 79,000 homes a month earlier."
"U.S. retail sales fell 0.1 percent in July, after gaining a revised 0.8 percent the prior month, the Commerce Department said in Washington. The median forecast of 76 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for an increase of 0.8 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fluctuated, swinging between a 0.7 percent gain and 0.5 percent loss."
The Bottom Line
As you can see above, the economy has not turned like the bulls expected it to. The consumer number was horrendous and I see no reason why the trend won't continue.
Jobless claims were also back up again this week as companies continue to shred jobs. This will only put more pressure on the consumer as they continue to fold like a tent.
The reality here folks is there is no exit strategy that does not result in the worst depression seen since the 1930's. My fear is it could be even worse than what was seen in the '30's because the size of the deficit is simply mine boggling compared to any other time in history.
Despite the obvious evidence that their policy is failing miserably, the Fed continues to try and reflate the debt bubble.
When are they gonna realize that bubbles don't reflate? Ben needs to pickup a history book on bubbles and then start thinking of an exit strategy that results in the least amount of economic pain that is possible.
Delaying an economic reset will only make it hurt that much more when the economy inevitably collapses.
So running through the DOL stats on the exhaustion rate for UI (the current final UI payments over the 26 week lagged initial payments), the only accessible value is a 12 month average that looked like it was experiencing some compression (barely went up this month from last month).
So I grabbed some numbers (had to copy/paste into a .csv and then bring into a spreadsheet). I expect we will see/are seeing some declines in the monthly exhaustion rate due to the huge ramp in the number of initial payments six months ago - while the monthly total of final payments continues its exponential climb. There will be lots more folks falling off the backside of continuing claims due to that bulge in initial payments starting last December...want to see continuing claims plus extended claims...
UPDATE As is indeed the case, the large influx is making the exhaustion rate go down - for the moment - but it is just putting more folks in the pipeline as potential future "exhaustees"...
Die heutigen Daten zu den Anträgen auf Zwangsversteigerungen in den USA, des Immobiliendatenanbieter RealtyTrac liefern auch für den Juli 2009 ein trostloses Bild! Die Anträge auf Zwangsversteigerungen (Foreclosure), stiegen laut dem U.S. Foreclosure Market Report auf ein neues Rekordhoch mit 360'149 Zwangsversteigerungen, um +7,1% zum Vormonat und um +32,32% zum Vorjahresmonat!
> Die Entwicklung der monatlichen Anträge auf Zwangsversteigerungen seit Juli 2005. Quelle Daten: Realtytrac.com <
Trotz aller bisherigen Unsummen für die Rettung des Finanzsystems befinden sich die Foreclosures für Hypothekennehmer auf einem neuen Höchststand! Jeder 355-igste Haushalt der USA war im Juli 2009 von Zwangsversteigerung betroffen. Besonders dramatisch geht es im Bundesstaat Nevada zu. Jeder 56. Haushalt stand dort zur Zwangsversteigerung, mehr als sechsmal so viel wie im Durchschnitt der USA, ein Plus von 94,18% zum Juli 2008.
Allein in Kalifornien wurden 108,104 Anträge auf Zwangsversteigerung im Juli gestellt. Jeder 123-igste Haushalt war betroffen, ein Anstieg von +49,55% zum Vorjahresmonat.
In den ersten 7 Monaten des Jahres 2009 kumulieren sich 2,265872 Millionen Anträge auf Zwangsversteigerungen in den USA.
2008/3,157806 Millionen Anträgen auf Zwangsversteigerungen, 2007/ 2,203295 Millionen Anträge, 2006/ 1,259118 Millionen Anträge, 2005/ 0,885 Millionen Anträge auf Zwangsversteigerungen!
Man sieht, die Dynamik ist ungebrochen und es ist noch kein Ende in Sicht! Denn mehr als 14 Millionen US-Immobilienbesitzer waren im 1. Quartal 2009 "unter Wasser", dass heißt der Wert der Immobilie liegt unter der noch ausstehenden Hypothek! Bis 2011 könnte die Anzahl der Hypotheken, die unter Wasser stehen auf gewaltige 48% aller US-Hypotheken anschwellen. Dies wären immerhin 25 Millionen Haushalte und die Folge wären noch massenhafte Zwangsversteigerungen.
87'258 Immobilien sind nur im Juli 2009 in den Besitz der Banken gelandet (REO, Bank repossessions). Nach Angaben von RealtyTrac gelangten bis Juli 2009 insgesamt 474'058 Immobilien in die Hand der Banken. Im Gesamtjahr 2008 waren es 870'930 Immobilien, 2007 waren es 445‘000 und in 2006 waren es 224‘000 Immobilien. Banken bieten mittlerweile mehr als ein Drittel der in den USA zum Verkauf stehenden Immobilien an!
Die Hauptursache für die weiter hohe Anzahl von Anträgen auf Zwangsversteigerungen ist die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit. Der Stellenabbau in den USA kumulierte sich in den letzten 19 Monaten auf unfassbare 6,664 Millionen verlorene Jobs!
Verlorene Jobs und Immobilien ruinieren die betroffenen US-Verbraucher nachhaltig. Dies wird tiefgreifende Auswirkungen auf ihr Konsumverhalten verursachen. Der Konsum jedoch ist die Hauptantriebsfeder des Bruttoinlandsprodukts, denn die privaten Konsumenten sind für knapp über 70% des BIPs der USA verantwortlich und für knapp 17% des Welt-BIPs. Dieser u.a. durch ungezügelte Kreditvergabe angekurbelte Konsum der Amerikaner ist in dieser Dimension nicht zu ersetzen.
Rule #1: Liquidity will eventually flow into undervalued assets.
This one is the simple reason why we see these long cycles of commodity and paper asset bull markets. At some point, because of human nature, one asset class will become extremely overvalued. We saw this extreme overvaluation in paper assets reach it's peak in 2000.
At that point smart money started leaking out of the stock market and looking for undervalued sectors. Areas with greater profit potential.
That sector was of course the commodity markets.
Now we are facing the consequences of the Fed's attempts to keep the paper markets elevated, a collapse in the financial system.
The Fed's response; pump more money into the banking system. We've already stood by and watched as they spent trillions of taxpayer money to keep the banks solvent. I dare say they've come to far to quit now.
Now I'm not one for conspiracy theories and I don't believe the PPT can rescue the markets even if there was such a thing. What I do wonder about is if the government, the same government that has pissed away trillions on failed banks, is going to allow the BKX to collapse again. You can see we just got a breakout above 44 and it appears to be holding. I have to wonder if this is going to be "allowed" to drop below that level again. The market is very sensitive to what happens to the financials.
I have to wonder if this is the reason John Paulson took a large position in BAC. It certainly wasn't because the fundamentals for financials are improving.
Now let me tie in the theme of this post to what I really want to point out. Let's say the Fed is pumping a constant stream of cash into the banking system. Rule number one is still going to apply, that cash is eventually going to make it's way out of the insolvent banks and go looking for undervalued assets.
Take a guess at what the single most undervalued asset is in inflation adjusted terms since 1980.
In keeping with yesterday's theme of Wall Street v. Main Street, which seem to rankle some readers, I present a video of Marc Faber of the Gloom Boom Doom Report.
The video starts out with Faber's macro economic forecast, and there really is nothing new here. But listen closely and you will hear a sprinkling of some of the issues I mentioned in yesterday's article, "On The Line: Credibility". Specifically: 1) the growing disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street (i.e., their interests aren't aligned); 2) Wall Street causing the crisis and reaping the benefits of the bailout; 3) the lost decade of investing.
Thanks to Trader Mark at FundMyMutualFund for bringing this video to my attention.
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FN: Of the 14.462 million people that officially count as unemployed (UNEMPLOY) 4.965 or 34% have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks (UEMP27OV).
The previous record of about 2.900 million unemployed for more than 27 weeks was reached in the early 1980's during a nasty economic period of stagflation.
The reason being unemployed for 27 weeks is so important is because normal unemployment benefits last 26 weeks (United States Department of Labor). After 26 weeks, the benefits stop.
As more and more people approached the cut off, the government implemented an Extended Benefits program, adding 13 additional weeks that can be topped off by individual states with an additional 7. (United States Department of Labor - Extended Benefits)
The unemployment data released today, showed a 'surprise' increase in Initial Claims from last week to 558 000. While initial claims are still trending in the wrong direction, more important is the number of unemployed on Extended Benefits and those claiming Emergency Unemployment Compensation:
"States reported 2,785,372 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending July 25, an increase of 30,981 from the prior week. There were 747,707 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity."
So it would appear that of the 4.965 million who have been unemployed for longer than 27 weeks, only 2.785 million have been able to qualify for EUC extended benefits, or 56%. That leaves 2.18 million with absolutely ZERO income of any kind from anywhere.
FN: The economy has been weak for far longer than you might think. Things went wrong a quite a long time ago and nobody really noticed. The Average Duration of Unemployment (UEMPMEAN) was a quiet, unseen warning beacon that all was not well.
From the 1950's through to the 1970's, it could take you as little as 7.5 weeks to find a new job during the 'boom' periods of an economic cycle. Then something snapped somewhere in the system. From the 1970's onwards it began to take longer and longer to find a new job and a new rising trend was put in place. From recession to recession (grey bars) life became quite a bit tougher.
Between the first (1) and second (2) recessions in the 1970's the time it took to find a job increased a serious 33% from 7.5 weeks to 10 weeks during the BEST OF TIMES. By the time the first recession in the 1980's (3) hit, the average duration of unemployment had jumped about 10% from 10 weeks to about 11 weeks. Here the amplitude of each cycle high and low exploded, maxing out at an astonishing 20 weeks. Almost 10 years later, just prior to the 1990's recession (4) it took about 12 weeks to find a job, a 9% increase. Then by the time the Tech Bubble finally burst in early 2000, it took over 12.5 weeks to find a job.
However, the worst was yet to come.
During the credit and real estate bubble years that followed it took about 17.5 weeks to find a job during the best of times (6), a massive increase of 40%.
When the easy credit bubble finally burst the 20 week average duration that had held for 30 years was breached and a new record high was set of at least 25 weeks.
Now in a jobless world expecting a jobless recovery, new records in unemployment duration will be set even from these levels.
The economy was structurally unsound long before the financial crisis hit. The warning signs were papered over with easy money by the Federal Reserve Bank under Alan "The Maestro" Greenspan and a complicit Wallstreet that extended cheap credit in amounts that grew exponentially.
The credit bubble has irrevocably burst and that is bad enough. Worse still is the timing. A veritable demographic tsunami is rapidly approaching the economic shore. Over leveraged and aging Baby Boomers are just about to realize they've gambled away their entire retirements in a high stakes game of consumer consumption and real estate leverage.
Each crisis on its own is a serious enough challenge to the system. Together, simultaneously like this, there is no feasible solution but time... and a long long time it will be. Almost certainly several lost decades.
Below are some links of interest for 8/13/09, just in case you missed them. Some have already been posted toTwitter.
Imports were up in June, in part due to a spike in oil prices. Exports were also up in June. On a year-over-year basis, exports are off 22% and imports are off 31% (Calculated Risk).
The duration of unemployment chart is getting scary, and at record levels (Trader's Narrative). Can you say jobless recovery?
Statistics indicate a recovery with no jobs, no pay increases, and therefore no increases in tax receipts for struggling state and local governments (Washington Post).
As of April, less than 13% of the largest 1,100 hedge funds had reached their high water mark, while more than 18% were more than 30% off their peaks (WSJ). Even after the recent market run, more then 70% of hedge funds have not recovered from 2008 losses, making it difficult for firms to generate extra fees, pay bonuses, and retain talent.
Natural gas hedges that locked into higher prices helped a number of companies report better than expected earnings, but this could be harder in the future if speculators have a more difficult time participating in the market going forward (WSJ). This is certain to affect "cash-flow certainty" for companies, affecting not only their ability to manage risk, but their ability to provide some level of stability to consumer energy prices.
Even if the efficient market hypothesis does not get in your way, it is not that simple to technically and fundamentally trade your way to being "really" rich, ......., but "merely" rich is possible (Abnormal Returns).
If revenue growth is to have a V-shaped recovery, shouldn't CapEx spending increase? Zero Hedge looked at the data. Not only is CapEx spending not increasing, it is continuing to fall.
The Baltic Dry Index has been down nine of the last ten trading days (The Financial Ninja). There is suspicion that China has pretty much completed their commodity restocking.
World stock market capitalization is up another $4 trillion in July (Carpe Diem).
Are option flash orders the next big thing to worry about (WSJ)? Maybe not (Daily Options Report, here and here).
Has the no volume bear market rally finally ended? The Pragmatic Capitalist believes so, and lays out the case why. The 50% move in the S&P 500 is somewhat typical for a secular bear market rally - declining volume, low quality asset gains, little leadership, and the move has been swift. With no volume confirmation, negative seasonal trends, no real catalysts in view, and extreme bullish sentiment, the market may be ready for a correction.
Don Fishback ran some numbers and found that the average return of the S&P 500 during earnings season was -0.11% (Don Fishback's Market Update, HT marketsci tweet). So why are stocks and index options more expensive going into earnings season? It could be explained by how far each period's returns deviate from the average. In fact, market returns during earnings season do not really resemble a bell curve.
During the second half of July, the NYSE experienced a 10.27% decline in short-selling positions not closed out, while the Nasdaq had a more than a 5% fall in short interest (WSJ).
In a challenge to iShares, Vanguard has filed a registration statement with the SEC to offer seven bond index ETFs, illustrating in part current trends, and how investors are looking more towards corporate bonds (Bull Bear Trader). While some investors are simply chasing returns, others are looking for new ways to diversify away from equities.
The natural gas ETF, UNG, has decided to not issue new units on worries of new stringent CFTC rules (WSJ). The shortage of shares may continue to cause the fund's value and price to diverge.
Actively managed quantitative strategies currently account for 9% of all U.S. equity AUM, as automation is becoming a competitive necessity (FINalternatives).
A forthcoming academic paper from SUNY professors Greg Gregoriou and Razvan Pascalau suggests that the optimal number of underlying hedge funds within a fund of hedge fund portfolio may actually be as low as 6-10 (All About Alpha). Among other conclusions, the paper demonstrates empirically that the number of hedge funds included in a FoF has a negative and significant impact on the volatility of returns, while having less of an impact on actual returns.
Bob Prechter of Elliott Wave International is quite sure the next wave down will be bigger and the March lows will break (The Big Picture).
After calling the bottom in March, Doug Kass is bearish again (TheStreet.com) since cost cuts and fiscal stimulus are limited, cost cuts threaten the consumer, the net worth of individuals has been damaged, the credit shock will continue, the outcome of the Fed monetarist experiment is uncertain, a housing recover will be muted - there are no other drivers right now, commercial real estate is just now entering its downturn, municipalities may not provide the necessary economic stability, and taxes will be rising, along with health and energy bills, further hurting the consumer.
Money managers collectively have 18.5% of the long portfolios in the Financial sector, 16.8% in Technology (Bespoke Investment Group). Utilities and Telecommunications round out the bottom at 3.0% and 2.9% respectively.
S&P 500 YTD returns by sector (Value Expectations). Technology, Consumer Durables, and Basic Materials are leading the way with 39.73%, 36.77%, and 32.82% average returns, respectively, while the Financial and Utility sectors are bringing up the rear at average returns of 10.81% and 5.87%, respectively. The Applied Finance Group's Value Expectations (VE) interface provides sector expectations for the S&P 500 (Value Expectations).
From the latest update of the four bear recovery comparison (check out the chart at dshort.com), it appears that the S&P 500 lows in 1974 and 2002 market sustained recoveries. The Dow low in 1929 failed 11 months later. The current market is now 47% above the March 9 low, and has outperformed the 1974 and 2002 rebounds over the same period. Doug Short ask: Will the rally continue to show resilience? That is the question.
New Morningstar 5-star stocks include Cisco Systems (CSCO), ExxonMobil (XOM), and Regions Financial (RF).
American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey results (as of Aug 6): Bullish 50% (rose above long-term average of 38.9%), Neutral 14.84%, Bearish 35.16% (rose above long-term average of 30.0%). It looks as if investors are jumping off the fence.
Even though the Dow Theory is giving bullish signals - since both the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports are moving above previous significant highs, signaling that the primary trend is bullish and stock price are likely to move higher - the signal may not have occurred since the corrections that followed the May and June highs failed to retrace even one-third of the rise since the March lows. As mentioned Monday, Jeff Saut just thinks it is a contrarian indicator.
Points taken from the battle of the Dr. Doom's (Bull Bear Trader) and the recent Nassim Taleb interview on CNBC (Bull Bear Trader).
Seit März werden Regierungs- resp. Wallstreet-hörige Analysten und Medien nicht müde, dem Volk einzuhämmern, mit der Wirtschaft gehe es wieder aufwärts, ja sogar, die Rezession sei vorbei. In diese Propaganda reihte sich gestern das begeisterte Mediengezwitscher nach Veröffentlichung der "Arbeitsproduktivität im Nonfarm Sector" für Q2/09 durch das Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ein. Dieses meldete nämlich einen grandiosen annualisierten und saisonbereinigten Produktivitätsanstieg von 6,4 % gegenüber dem Vorquartal (Konsensschätzung: plus 5,5 %).
Der "Produktivitätsindex" ist jedoch ein Janus-köpfiger Wirtschaftsindikator. Er reflektiert die Arbeitsleistung (Output) aller Beschäftigten in Relation zu den geleisteten Wochenarbeitsstunden. Im Folgenden zeige ich einige Charts mit Stand Q2/09, die die Begeisterung über diesen Anstieg in einem sehr fragwürdigen Licht erscheinen lassen.
> Dieser Chart lässt erkennen, dass beim Output des Business Sector ein sehr langfristiger hyperbolischer Trend gebrochen wurde. Ein deutliches Warnzeichen! <
> Noch deutlicher fällt dieses Warnzeichen beim Output des produzierenden Gewerbes aus. <
> Im Indexchart der im Manufacturing Sector geleisteten Arbeitsstunden. Der entsprechende Chart des produzierenden Gewerbes bedarf es wohl keines Kommentars. Dieser ist "hammerhart"! <
Und nun zu ein paar weiteren Aspekten, die den "dornigen Weg", der den USA mE noch bevorstehen dürfte, apostrophieren:
Regierungsausgaben im Rahmen der diversen "Bail-Out-Maßnahmen bzw. Rettungs- und Ankurbelungsprogramme" incl. Ausgaben außerhalb des regulären Haushalts (z.B. im Rahmen von Fed- und FDIC-"Rettungsmaßnahmen", wobei ich bzgl. der Fed ausdrücklich auf deren "Stützungskäufe" von US-Treasuries, Federal Agencies Securities und Mortgage-Backed Securities abhebe - die beiden letzteren Positionen beziehen sich fast ausschließlich auf Bonds von Fannie Mae und Freddie Mac und machen z.Z. etwa die Hälfte des FED-"Vermögens" (System Open Market Account/SOMA) aus. Das FED-"Vermögen" besteht ausschließlich aus Schuldtiteln - "DER KAISER IST NACKT!", wie es in dem Märchen "Des Kaisers neue Kleider" heißt.
“Sugar is certainly going to go much, much higher during the course of the bull market. Sugar is still 70% below its all-time high, and not many things in life are 70% below what they were in 1974. Sugar has a wonderful future.”
> Die Entwicklung des BIPs seit Q1 1995, blau die prozentuale Veränderung zum Vorquartal und rot in % zum Vorjahresquartal. <
> Die Entwicklung der monatlichen Anträge auf Zwangsversteigerungen seit Juli 2005. Quelle Daten: 
> Noch deutlicher fällt dieses Warnzeichen beim Output des produzierenden Gewerbes aus. < 
