Tagesarchiv für den 12.10.2009

I wanted to share a great article from Business Week. The future for the current generation of young workers is looking increasingly grim as the first depression since the 1930's continues to wreak havoc on our economy.
The numbers are grim:

Let me share a few statistics from the piece:

"Affected are a range of young people, from high school dropouts, to college grads, to newly minted lawyers and MBAs across the developed world from Britain to Japan. One indication: In the U.S., the unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds has climbed to more than 18%, from 13% a year ago."

"What's more, the baby boom generation is counting on a productive young workforce to help fund retirement and health care. Instead, young people risk getting tracked into jobs that don't pay as well, says Lisa B. Kahn of the Yale School of Management. That would mean lower tax payments for Social Security and Medicare.

Only 46% of people aged 16-24 had jobs in September, the lowest since the government began counting in 1948. The crisis is even hitting recent college graduates. "I've applied for a whole lot of restaurant jobs, but even those, nobody calls me back," says Dan Schmitz, 25, a University of Wisconsin graduate with a bachelor's degree in English who lives in Brooklyn, N.Y. "Every morning I wake up thinking today's going to be the day I get a job. I've not had a job for months, and it's getting really frustrating."ANXIETY AND FEAR"

"The sense of stasis in many Western countries is reminiscent of Japan, where talk of a lost generation has been around since as long ago as 1995. Some 3.1 million Japanese aged 25 to 34 work as temps or contract employees—up from 2 million 10 years ago, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs."

My Take:

This article was quite eye opening to me. I hadn't really taken time to think about the impact that our depression will have on young workers over the long term.

The fact that 46% of workers aged 16-24 are jobless is flat out frightening. How will these kids ever get ahead? How will they ever be able to earn enough money for a stable retirement if they lose a decade before the economy recovers? Even then, who is to say that the economy sharply recovers within 10 years?

Japan still hasn't recovered from its post bubble malaise and it happened over 20 years ago! America wasn't able to recover from the depression in the '30's despite the government trying everything under the sun to stimulate it. WWII finally got the economy kick started again towards the end of the decade.

You need to ask yourself: After a euphoric 25 year bull run, could we not see a 20 year bear now after such prolonged prosperity?

Another thought here is how in the hell are we ever going to pay off our trillions in debts without young prosperous workers from which to tax from? Also, who is going to fund the massive medicare and social security programs that will be dramatically drained as our baby boomers retire?

The Bottom Line:

I'll tell ya folks. The more I think about the future the more frightened I become. I see no way out of this fiasco without years and years of pain. NONE!

As I watch the dollar fall on an almost daily basis I can't help but think: Is it time to buy guns and gold and move up into the mountains? It's starting to look like this might be the best alternative.

The economy and our currency are both in a free fall and the elites in the ivory towers simply don't seem to care.

When is America going to rise up and say Enough?

I'm waiting.

Paul Hickey

New Bull Market Closing High

The S&P 500 was able to make a new bull market closing high today by taking out its prior high of 1071.66. At a price of 1076.19, the index is now about 5 points below its intraday high of 1080.15. From a technical perspective, this new closing high means we should see a continuation of the S&P 500's uptrend. Today...


Tim Knight

Decade Flashback

As a good contrarian, I like to keep magazines which capture the zeitgeist of their day. Here are a couple from a decade ago, at the peak of the Internet bubble:

1012-fortune

One of the articles in Money magazine, whose cover is above on the right, is The Sensible Internet Portfolio. It lists six stocks that aren't so nutty as their peers. They are:

1012-sensible

Of the six above, four of them are delisted. I don't want to dig through bankruptcy proceedings or merger deals, but I think we can all safely agree that the four that have vanished had a substantial decline in value. As for the two you can still chart - ARBA and VRSN - I have put graphs here and here (no need to gobbling up your screen space with these things).

Am I suggesting the market is like early 2000 right now? No; the dot-gov bubble's lunacies are confined only to certain places. We're nowhere near the insanity of those days, although I do thing the systemic troubles are far worse.

My point is that it helps to keep perspective. One week from now we're going to know a whole lot more about the direction of the market than we do now. Because, frustrating as it has been, the push higher makes total sense from a charting perspective. However, if we continue to blow higher, right past the 1120 level, there are going to be a lot of confounded, frustrated, and much-poorer bears. If the balance of the week brings market action that slices us right through those lofty levels, we've all got some serious rethinking to do.


Inquiring minds are noting that Foreclosures Grow in Housing Market's Top Tiers.
About 30% of foreclosures in June involved homes in the top third of local housing values, up from 16% when the foreclosure crisis began three years ago, according to new data from real-estate Web site Zillow.com. The bottom one-third of housing markets, by home value, now account for 35% of foreclosures, down from 55% in 2006.

The Zillow research compared homes against the median values for their local market and broke each market into three tiers by value. Zillow then looked at the share of monthly foreclosures in each tier over the past decade.

Default rates are particularly high and expected to rise on option adjustable-rate mortgages, which allow borrowers to make minimum payments that may not cover the interest due. Monthly payments can increase to sharply higher levels after five years or when the outstanding balance reaches a certain level. A study by Fitch Ratings found that 46% of option ARMs were 30 days past due last month, even though just 12% of such loans have reset to higher monthly payments.

Zillow estimated that nearly one in four homes with mortgages was worth less than the value of the property at the end of June. Mr. Humphries said he didn't expect to see foreclosure volumes level off until later in 2010.
Mad Scramble To Avoid Foreclosure Begins

Not only are foreclosures increasing, the value at risk is rising because of the shift to more expensive homes. The big hit comes when Pay Option ARM holders simply decide to walk away.

The Washington Post notes that Bank of America Scrambles to Modify Loans Ahead of Government Deadline. Please consider Racing the Clock to Avoid Foreclosures.

Bank of America employees are reminded every day of how far they still have to go. Just outside the elevators of their vast third-floor command center, attached to the wall, is a cardboard thermometer that shows them inching toward their goal of signing up 125,000 struggling borrowers for a federal program to modify their mortgages.

The company faces many of the same challenges as other major lenders addressing the foreclosure crisis. But with weeks remaining to meet the November deadline set by the Obama administration, Bank of America is trailing well behind the other large banks, according to Treasury Department data.

The company's effort has been hamstrung by a staff shortage and by adapting its computer systems and even fax machines to the scale of the program, which began in March. The company was also slow out of the box because it initially took a more conservative approach than some other banks, requiring that borrowers document their income and complete other paperwork before granting preliminary approval for a modification. In August, Bank of America softened the requirement and began authorizing some modifications without getting all the documents first.

Adding to borrowers' difficulties was a letter sent this summer by Bank of America that mistakenly informed some of them that they did not qualify for the administration's foreclosure-prevention program because their loans were not backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, the government-controlled mortgage giants. "Bank of America is not actively participating in this program," the bank wrote to some borrowers, according to a copy of the letter obtained by The Washington Post.

Under the Making Home Affordable program, lenders are paid with taxpayer funds to reduce borrowers' mortgage payments by lowering their interest rates, for example, or by extending the terms of their loans

A progress report released last week by the Treasury Department showed that only 11 percent (about 95,000) of Bank of America's delinquent borrowers who were potentially eligible for the program had been given a loan modification. That compares with 27 percent, or 117,000, for J.P. Morgan Chase, and 33 percent, or 68,000, at Citigroup, the Treasury reported. The figure for Saxon Mortgage Services, which is owned by Morgan Stanley, is 41 percent, or 32,000.

Many of the 62 other mortgage lenders participating in the government program have also ramped up, industry officials said. Wells Fargo reported that call volume tripled after the program was announced in February, prompting the company to hire an additional 5,800 employees to address loan modifications this year. Citigroup increased its loss-mitigation department from 450 employees in early 2008 to more than 4,000. J.P. Morgan Chase switched from a paper fax system to an electronic one to handle the volume of documents being submitted by borrowers.

Even after top Treasury officials called in industry leaders for a series of meetings on the program in July, chastising them for their poor progress, the foreclosure crisis continues to worsen. Borrowers are becoming delinquent on their mortgages at record rates, and rising unemployment rates are exacerbating the problem, economists say. Already, 4.4 million borrowers have lost their home since the mortgage crisis began in 2007, and another 2 million will this year, according to Moody's Economy.com.

Bank of America and other lenders have a lot riding on the foreclosure prevention program. The company stands to collect about $6 billion -- some of which will be passed on to investors -- of the $75 billion the administration has set aside for the Making Home Affordable program.

At the same time, the banking industry faces a threat from senior Democrats in Congress who may revive legislation allowing bankruptcy judges to modify mortgages if more is not done to help borrowers. Last week, Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) introduced a bill allowing a borrower to fight a foreclosure in court by arguing that the lender did not offer a loan modification.
Hopeless Mess

There's much more in the article including examples of people turned down for modifications for various reasons. Those examples show just how hopeless this mess is. For those mods that do go through, I expect the work-outs to be temporary and for problems to resurface.

Two Key Problems

  • Without jobs, many of the modification participants cannot afford to make any payment.
  • Of those who can afford payments are a class of people whose best interest is to walk away regardless.

Here's the deal. These modifications schemes are attempting to make the payments affordable whereas the real problem is the huge positive incentive for those underwater on their homes to simply walk away. Restructuring payments cannot possibly fix a problem of debt levels being too high. Nor can restructuring payments help anyone out of a job, unable to afford any payment.

Those on the upper end of the economic scale are more apt to understand the situation than those on the lower end of the economic scale. High end foreclosures can be expected to increase for this reason, even for those with a good paying job.

At the low end of the economic scale, only those with a job can benefit. Yet, even then the odds are most program participants would be better off walking away than becoming debt slaves to an overvalued residence. Some will eventually figure this out. Others will find that even a lower rate is not enough to keep them in their house. Still other will lose their job in the next 1-2 years and be forced out of their homes.

Huge numbers of modifications are in the works. Just don't expect any miracles. None are coming.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Barry Ritholtz

Plummeting Dollars

Some amusing dollar cartoons from the past few years . . .

dollar_submerged

actial_size

falling_dollar

shrinking_dollar

humpty_dumpty_dollar

by george thats bad

wouldyou

Stonefoxcapital

Poll of the Day: Is the Recession Over?

This is a pretty stunning result from a CNBC poll. While Stone Fox Capital has been claiming that the recession was likely over in the June/July time frame, this poll suggests that only 20% of the people on CNBC think the recession is over 3 months later. On a purely technical basis, the recession is clearly over as Q2 GDP will likely grow at a 3-4% level.I'd guess that the respondents to this


The big news of the day is obviously the weak dollar.

As the headline of a must-read article in Bloomberg states: "Dollar Reaches Breaking Point as [Central] Banks Shift Reserves [Away from the Dollar]".

AFP points out that - whether or not the report from the Independent that many countries will price oil against a basket of currencies and gold in the future is true (see this and this) - confidence in the dollar is so weak that investors and banks are using it as an excuse to get out of the dollar.

Business insider notes that the S&P has fallen back to 1996 levels in dollar-adjusted terms.

Obviously, the trend line for the dollar is going down in the medium to long-term.

And yet there are strong arguments for a short-term dollar rally the next time the market crashes.

The key question is whether the dollar will behave the same way it did in the 2008 crash. The currency chief at HSBC - David Bloom- doesn't think so:

The dollar rallied last year because we had a global liquidity crisis, but we think the rules have changed and that it will be very different this time [if there is another market sell-off].
But the dollar wasn't the basis for a carry trade last year. If the markets crash, the dollar trade may unwind, pushing the dollar higher.

Moreover, does the fact that many top economists say that it was not really a liquidity crisis but an insolvency crisis undermine Bloom's argument?

It is vital for investors and financial analysts to figure out whether or not Bloom is right. If he's wrong, then getting out of the dollar to soon would be counterproductive. If he's right, getting out too late would be suicidal.

Marc Faber actually argues that it is the other way around: when the dollar rallies, then the markets will tank, as investors will suck money out of the markets to buy the dollar.

From Larry Gonick's The Cartoon History of the Modern World, Part 2, on page 248 ... (ht TDM)

Click on cartoon for larger image in new window.

Posted with permission from Larry Gonick. Thanks!

For more on Tanta, see the menu bar above ...
Molecool

Maddening Manic Monday!

Anna here again gang

Well this was a classic run up to 52 week high, then the bulls (finally) grabbed some profits. I do expect some kind of consolidation tomorrow as the tape is short term way over bought, but that will more than likely be the pause that refreshes  before hitting new highs. My target short term is 1121.  Just for the record I am not a bull, but it’s Halloween and am wearing a synthetic bull costume ;-D

Zero and the light were spot on today with the signals, shows the gap up then the gap fill,  such a great tool to have on hand.

Geronimo stats 1 alert -2.25


Molecool

Maddening Manic Monday!

Anna here again gang

Well this was a classic run up to 52 week high, then the bulls (finally) grabbed some profits. I do expect some kind of consolidation tomorrow as the tape is short term way over bought, but that will more than likely be the pause that refreshes  before hitting new highs. My target short term is 1121.  Just for the record I am not a bull, but it’s Halloween and am wearing a synthetic bull costume ;-D

Zero and the light were spot on today with the signals, shows the gap up then the gap fill,  such a great tool to have on hand.

Geronimo stats 1 alert -2.25


With everyone lately focused on China's foreign reserve position, analysts have forgotten that America also has an International Reserve account consisting of foreign currency positions, as well as gold reserves and equivalents. And while the total combined holdings as of the most recently reported period are a joke compared to China's $2+ trillion, the most recent number of $133.6 billion does raise red flags, particularly when one traces this number's level throughout the year. We present a graphic representation of the US International Reserve Position over the past year: The big question mark at the end of August is when the U.S. International Reserve Position increased by almost 50%. The reason for this: a near quintupling of S.D.R. holdings on the U.S. balance sheet in the span of one week - from August 21 to August 28. Note the SDR position as disclosed on August 21: And here is the comparable reserve asset balance on August 28: The SDR balance increased by 500% practically overnight and has stayed that way ever since. Now as many readers are aware SDRs have been the IMF's way to provide a super-reserve currency, formed in the post-Bretton Woods world. As the IMF itself discloses, the SDR value is determined based on a basket of currencies:
The value of the SDR was initially defined as equivalent to 0.888671 grams of fine gold—which, at the time, was also equivalent to one U.S. dollar. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, however, the SDR was redefined as a basket of currencies, today consisting of the euro, Japanese yen, pound sterling, and U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar-value of the SDR is posted daily on the IMF’s website. It is calculated as the sum of specific amounts of the four currencies valued in U.S. dollars, on the basis of exchange rates quoted at noon each day in the London market. The basket composition is reviewed every five years by the Executive Board to ensure that it reflects the relative importance of currencies in the world’s trading and financial systems. In the most recent review (in November 2005), the weights of the currencies in the SDR basket were revised based on the value of the exports of goods and services and the amount of reserves denominated in the respective currencies which were held by other members of the IMF. These changes became effective on January 1, 2006. The next review will take place in late 2010.
By purchasing $40 billion in SDRs virtually overnight, what the Fed has done is to increase the value of the entire basket pro-rata, while in the process reducing the actual value of the dollar (which is a weighted constituent of the SDR basket). This was an operation to reduce the dollar's value: pure and simple. In many ways it explains why the DXY has continued its straight one way decline since the beginning of September, when many pundits assumed the market was finally going to tank on profit taking after Labor day. By performing this dollar adverse transaction, the Fed sent a loud and clear signal what the Fed was going to do going forward vis-a-vis the i) dollar and ii) its derivative, the stock market. And what is worse, this is not a roundabout or circuitous way of devaluing the dollar: this is head on intervention. It is one thing to print trillions of MBS and Agencies and to monetize Treasuries, where one could say Tim Geithner's claim that the U.S. is for a strong dollar, and the dollar is only weak as a function of supporting housing prices. That could potentially fly as an explanation. However, when the Fed is actively and purposefully destroying the dollar's worth via transactions such as material SDR purchases, then it truly demonstrates Geithner's statement as a bold faced lie to the American public. When will Mr. Geithner be finally taken to task for his repeated fabrications of reality and intent? Update: The action seems to have been a portion of a global reallocation of SDR's by the IMF which made the SDR outstandings to increase by a massive amount: "With a general SDR allocation taking effect on August 28 and a special allocation on September 9, 2009, the amount of SDRs will increase from SDR 21.4 billion to SDR 204.1 billion (currently equivalent to about $317 billion)." And here is the explanation for the justification of the SDR expansion:
Q.
Why was the 2009 general SDR allocation necessary?
  A. The general allocation of US$250 billion implemented on August 28, 2009 was the response to the call by the G-20 Heads of State and the IMF's International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) at their respective meetings in April 2009. • It is a prime example of a cooperative monetary response to the global financial crisis: by providing significant unconditional financial resources to liquidity constrained countries, it will smooth the need for adjustment and add to the scope for expansionary policies, where needed in the face of deflation risks. • This is particularly important for emerging market and low-income countries that have been hit hard by the current global economic crisis. Over the longer term, the allocation could also reduce the need for pursuing destabilizing and costly reserve accumulation policies that could contribute to global imbalances.
And some speculation on what this action will do to the global economy:
Q. Will the SDR allocation be inflationary?
  A. Not likely. • The size of the allocation is small relative to global GDP (? of 1 percent), trade (less than 1 percent), and reserves (3 percent). • With a global output gap projected to persist through 2014—by which point any expansionary impact of early spending of the SDR allocation should have dissipated—the allocation is unlikely to generate significant inflationary pressure.
Last but not least, the US was of course expected to bear the brunt of this reallocation, responsible for purchasing three times as much (SDR30 billion) as the second largest quota allocated country: Japan (SDR11 billion). China is far in the distance at SDR 6 billion. In essence: the monetary community increased its global liquidity position, by assuming that the U.S. is still the defacto reserve currency, and forcing it to take the majority of the devaluation hit relative to all other IMF constituents. Well done, Ben.

Peter Boockvar

2nd quietest volume day of the year

While the market has come off its intraday highs, it didn’t take much as volume is running at the slowest pace since Jan 2nd, the Friday after New Years Day. With earnings reports upon us in earnest beginning tomorrow, the stock market becomes a different place in that it more discriminates between those that deliver and those that don’t and the game of ‘US$ down, buy stocks’ may not be as simple.

Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.

Update RE: Divergences

This is a quick follow up to my earlier post on divergences. Note that the new bull highs in the S&P 500 Index (ES futures) today were not confirmed by the NASDAQ or Russell 2000 Indexes. We also did not see new bull highs in the XLB, XLI, XLV, XLF, and XLK sector ETFs. I also show us as having made a little over 1400 20-day highs across the NYSE, NASDAQ, and ASE--well down from the levels of mid-September. I continue to see this as part of a topping process in stocks.
.
"Given the Fed's extremely easy policies, runaway government spending and shortages of many commodities, inflation pressures are building and destined to get much worse.The Federal Reserve has laid the groundwork for some serious inflation down the road by printing all this money. So have many other central banks.

Although the U.S. government lies about inflation in its official data, inflationary pressures are already evident in nearly everything, excluding energy. Inflation is going to continue, going to accelerate. We're going to be paying more for just about everything down the road."

Asked if he foresees a 1970s-style stagflation period ahead, Rogers chuckled and gave an ominous reply: "I hope it's that good. It might be much, much worse."

in TechTicker

Gefunden bei bazonline.ch (Hervorhebungen von mir hinzugefügt):

Kunden stürmen Bank – Zentralbank muss einschreiten

Aktualisiert am 12.10.2009

Nach Spekulationen über einen bevorstehenden Zusammenbruch der niederländischen DSB Bank hat die Zentralbank das Geldinstitut übernommen.

Die Spekulationen hatten einen Ansturm von Anlegern auf ihre Konten ausgelöst. De Nederlandsche Bank erklärte am Montag, sie habe das Amsterdamer Bezirksgericht gebeten, die DSB Bank unter ihre Aufsicht zu stellen. Grund sei ein hoher Liquiditätsabfluss, der die Existenz der DSB kurzfristig gefährdet habe.

Alle Einlagen seien bis zu einer Höhe von jeweils 100′000 Euro garantiert, teilte die niederländische Zentralbank mit. Die Kunden kommen bei der Bank selber nicht mehr an ihr Geld, können aber über andere Banken bis Mittwoch um Mitternacht mit ihren DSB-Kontokarten Bargeld abheben.

Schillernde Figur

Zuvor seien mehrere Versuche fehlgeschlagen, die DSB des Finanzunternehmers und Fussballmäzens Dirk Scheringa durch ein Konsortium von fünf Banken aufzufangen, erklärte die DNB am Montag. Dazu gehörten ABN Amro, ING, Fortis Nederland, Rabobank und SNS Reaal. Ein Gericht in Amsterdam regelte die vorläufige Übernahme der DSB durch die Zentralbank mit einer Notverordnung.

Die DSB ist mit Aktiva von rund acht Milliarden Euro eine der kleineren europäischen Privatbanken, verfügt aber in den Niederlanden über einen beachtlichen Kundenkreis im Segment zinsgünstiger Hypotheken.

Quergeschäfte

Beschwerden von Kunden hatten vor einigen Wochen die akute Krise der Bank ausgelöst. Die Kunden fühlten sich durch Quergeschäfte wie der obligatorischen Verbindung ihrer Hausbaukredite mit ihrer Meinung nach zu teuren Lebensversicherungen übervorteilt.

Die Übernahme der DSB durch die Zentralbank erfolgte rund ein Jahr, nachdem der niederländische Staat Milliarden in den einheimischen Bankensektor gepumpt hatte, um dessen Kollaps zu verhindern. (cpm/ap/sda)

Erstellt: 12.10.2009, 14:11 Uhr

Tim Knight

One Fluffy Dog+Barbie=Double Amputee

1012-barbie


Barry Ritholtz

Monday Reading

A quick set for a holiday Monday:

Foreclosures Grow in Housing Market’s Top Tiers (WSJ)

Dollar Reaches Breaking Point as Banks Shift Reserves (Bloomberg)

October Crashes I Have Known But Not Loved (Barrons’s)

Kass: Four Stages of Market Turning Points (The Street.com)

Markets Aren’t Everything: Parsing the Economics Nobel (Forbes)

• Computing Stock Data in Real Time (Wolfram)

TARP deadbeats (Reuters)

Apple and the Future of Publishing — Part Two (Cringely)

Nikon Small World Gallery

What are you reading ?

"I don't see any adequate supply situation in any commodity market over the next decade or two. The commodities boom is not over and the bull market has several years to go. Commodities are the best place to be, if you ask me, based on supply and demand."

"Oil could reach between 150 and 200 dollars per barrel, as known reserves begin to decline. Unless something happens, crude oil will run out in 15 to 20 years."

"The supply of everything continues to decline. If the world economy recovers, commodities will do the best, because supply is being restricted. If the world economy does not recover, commodities will still be the best place to be, because governments are printing huge amounts of money."

In Telegraph UK
Michael Shedlock

Is the Stock Market a Leading Indicator?

Inquiring minds are pondering the question "Is the Stock Market a Leading Indicator?"

Please consider the following two charts.

S&P Monthly Chart 1980-1992



click on chart for sharper image

Vertical bars on the chart show when recessions began. There were three recession isn this period, starting January 1980, July 1981, and July 1990 according to NBER Business Cycle Expansion and Contraction Data. The NBER is the official determinant of recessions.

Looking at a chart of the S&P it is difficult to suggest the Stock Market is a leading indicator, coincident perhaps but certainly not leading.

Moreover, the biggest decline during the period was a 35.9% drop in 1987, a period in which there was no recession. Furthermore, I circled four areas with very similar patterns in the 1980-1992 timeframe that were recessions following essentially sideways corrections in the S&P 500. Two of them were recessions, two were not.

For the 1981 recession and the 1990 recession, one could only tell there was a recession coming in hindsight. Finally the January 1980 recession vs. the S&P 500 looks like noise. The stock market actually rose at the start of the recession.

S&P Monthly Chart 1998-2009



click on chart for sharper image

There were two recessions in the 1998 - 2009 timeframe. The clearest case that the stock market is leading came in the recession that began in March 2001. However, the recession ended in November 2001 yet the stock market made a substantial new low mid-2002 with a double bottom test in Spring of 2003.

The stock market declined 34% after the recession was over. Is that a leading indicator? Of what?

For the recession that began in December 2007, the S&P 500 was down only a few percent from its all time high. Is that a leading indicator?

Clearly the answer is no. The S&P 500 was a coincident indicator for the entire recession. The NBER has not yet declared the end of the recession but it will do so and it will be backdated, most likely to Spring of 2009.

If so, the market will have proven to have been a coincident indicator, known only in hindsight.

Conclusion

The stock market is at best a coincident indicator, known only well after the fact. Furthermore, even as a coincident indicator, the stock market gives many false signals, making it totally useless for all practical purposes.

The theory that the stock market is a reliable leading indicator is a myth easily shattered by simple observation of the facts.

For further discussion of leading indicators, please see Can We Really Trust The Leading Economic Indicators?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Tyler Durden

The Eight [Worst/Best] Stocks Of 2009?

Zero Hedge has compiled a list of the 8 worst/best [take your pick] stocks of 2009. The selection criteria include Russell 2000 stocks which have returned over 1,000% from their 52 week low, and which have a 10% or higher short interest. The last criteria is a function of our ongoing belief that this entire rally has been built on the backs of forced short covering action, in which those experiencing a squeeze are happy to lift any offers as long as they can get respective repo desks/margin call repo men off their backs. Another interesting observation is the 1 year growth in revenue and EBITDA. We use the term growth loosely as the median growth Year over Year for the universe of 8 has been -20% and -25% respectively: not exactly the stuff 1,000%+ rallies are made of. Lastly, of the eight companies, four have negative unlevered LTM free cash flows, which in this day and age of Fed sponsored moral hazard may in fact be a good thing.

For those who are [brave/stupid/risk tolerant/addicted to gambling] enough, one possible way to approach this grouping is to buy medium/long-term straddles on these names as there is likely no way in the world these 8 companies are priced to perfection assuming such a unique confluence of favorable technicals and adverse fundamentals. At some point, one of the two will win, and these stocks will either plummet or skyrocket (they still have substantial short interest). Buyer, of course, beware.

Source: CapIQ

Bloomberg quantifies the consensus analyst rating for a stock on a scale of 1 (worst) to 5 (best). Stocks with a 5 rating have 100% buy ratings. We recently calculated the historical consensus ratings for all S&P 500 stocks and found the average daily consensus rating for the entire index going back a year. As shown below, the consensus analyst...


By George Washington of Washington’s Blog.

The battle to reform the American banking system needs to include reimposing the barrier between investment banking and depository banking (Glass-Steagall), pay incentives based on what is best for Americans and not just the top executives, the end of too big to fail, and other changes which are frequently discussed by financial writers. These are vital issues.

But there is more to the battle for reform than you might know.

New York Versus the Rest of the Country

If you are happy with the banking system, and don’t think it needs to be reformed, then you probably work for one of the banks headquartered in New York.

Indeed, the banks outside of New York have acted much more conservatively, used more conservative capital ratios and less leverage and gotten less involved in credit derivatives and other speculative investments.

Buy a banker in the Midwest a drink, and he will probably rail against the giant New York banks for causing the financial crisis, costing the smaller, better run banks a lot of money and huge fees, and driving many smaller banks out of business.

And even within the Federal Reserve, what the New York Fed and Bernanke are saying is wholly different from what the heads of the regional Fed banks are saying. The Fed banks in Philadelphia and Kansas City and Dallas and elsewhere disagree with what the New York Fed and Fed’s Open Market Committee are doing. See this and this.

So the battle isn’t between bankers versus outsiders. It is between the giant New York money-centered banks and the rest of the country.

Reserve Requirements

Congresswoman Kaptur said last week:

We used to have capital ratios. We need to get back to them. Ten to one. For every dollar in your bank, you can lend ten. You know what J.P. Morgan did? A hundred to one. And then with derivatives, who knows how much?

Remember, Milton Friedman – the monetary economist worshipped as the guy with all of the answers in the latter part of the 20th century – advocated for 100% reserves.

Friedman has been deified as the economist to follow. But his views on reserve requirements have been completely ignored.

Goldman Using Taxpayer Dollars to Buy Stock in China?

As everyone knows, Goldman became a “bank holding company” in September, to be able to access funds from the Fed at essentially zero percent interest.

But in a new interview with Bill Moyers, Simon Johnson noted that in August of 2009, Goldman switched again – to a “financial holding company”.

What’s the difference?

Johnson says that being a financial holding company means that Goldman can borrow money from the Fed at essentially no cost, and then invest it in any thing it wants. For example, Johnson says that Goldman has bought a large share of the stock of a Chinese automaker. Johnson says that if the investment succeeds, Goldman will reap the profits; but if it fails, the taxpayers are on the hook.

Banks Have the Power to Create Money

Congresswoman Kaptur also said last week:

Banks have the power to create money. And decide how much that is worth.

What is Kaptur talking about?

Here Comes the Judge

Well, in First National Bank v. Daly (often referred to as the “Credit River” case) the court found that the bank created money without having the reserves:

[The president of the First National Bank of Montgomery] admitted that all of the money or credit which was used as a consideration [for the mortgage loan given to the defendant] was created upon their books, that this was standard banking practice exercised by their bank in combination with the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneaopolis, another private bank, further that he knew of no United States statute or law that gave the Plaintiff [bank] the authority to do this.

The court also held:

The money and credit first came into existence when they [the bank] created it.

(Here’s the case file).

Nobel Economists, Congressmen, the Fed and Treasury Agree

Still confused?

Well, let’s hear from some top economists.

As PhD economist Steve Keen pointed out recently, 2 Nobel-prize winning economists have shown that the assumption that reserves are created from excess deposits is not true:

The model of money creation that Obama’s economic advisers have sold him was shown to be empirically false over three decades ago.

The first economist to establish this was the American Post Keynesian economist Basil Moore, but similar results were found by two of the staunchest neoclassical economists, Nobel Prize winners Kydland and Prescott in a 1990 paper Real Facts and a Monetary Myth.

Looking at the timing of economic variables, they found that credit money was created about 4 periods before government money. However, the “money multiplier” model argues that government money is created first to bolster bank reserves, and then credit money is created afterwards by the process of banks lending out their increased reserves.

Kydland and Prescott observed at the end of their paper that:

Introducing money and credit into growth theory in a way that accounts for the cyclical behavior of monetary as well as real aggregates is an important open problem in economics.

In other words, if the conventional view that excess reserves (stemming either from customer deposits or government infusions of money) lead to increased lending were correct, then Kydland and Prescott would have found that credit is extended by the banks (i.e. loaned out to customers) after the banks received infusions of money from the government. Instead, they found that the extension of credit preceded the receipt of government monies.

Keen explained in an interview Friday that 25 years of research shows that creation of debt by banks precedes creation of government money, and that debt money is created first and precedes creation of credit money.

As Mish has previously noted:

Conventional wisdom regarding the money multiplier is wrong. Australian economist Steve Keen notes that in a debt based society, expansion of credit comes first and reserves come later.

This angle of the banking system has actually been discussed for many years by leading experts:

“[Banks] do not really pay out loans from the money they receive as deposits. If they did this, no additional money would be created. What they do when they make loans is to accept promissory notes in exchange for credits to the borrowers’ transaction accounts.”
- 1960s Chicago Federal Reserve Bank booklet entitled “Modern Money Mechanics”

“The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled.”
- Economist John Kenneth Galbraith

[W]hen a bank makes a loan, it simply adds to the borrower’s deposit account in the bank by the amount of the loan. The money is not taken from anyone else’s deposit; it was not previously paid in to the bank by anyone. It’s new money, created by the bank for the use of the borrower.
- Robert B. Anderson, Secretary of the Treasury under Eisenhower, in an interview reported in the August 31, 1959 issue of U.S. News and World Report

“Do private banks issue money today? Yes. Although banks no longer have the right to issue bank notes, they can create money in the form of bank deposits when they lend money to businesses, or buy securities. . . . The important thing to remember is that when banks lend money they don’t necessarily take it from anyone else to lend. Thus they ‘create’ it.”
-Congressman Wright Patman, Money Facts (House Committee on Banking and Currency, 1964)

The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented.
- Sir Josiah Stamp, president of the Bank of England and the second richest man in Britain in the 1920s.

Banks create money. That is what they are for. . . . The manufacturing process to make money consists of making an entry in a book. That is all. . . . Each and every time a Bank makes a loan . . . new Bank credit is created — brand new money.
- Graham Towers, Governor of the Bank of Canada from 1935 to 1955

Monetary reformers argue that the government should take the power of money creation back from the private banks and the Federal Reserve system.

Indeed, PhD economist and candidate for Florida governor Farid Khavari wants to create a Bank of the State of Florida, to create credit without burdening the state and its citizens with high interest charges by private banks.

The state of North Dakota already has such a bank.

The bottom line is that monetary reformers argue that letting banks create credit and money and then charge high interest rates creates massive levels of debt for states and taxpayers. They argue that the power to create money should be reclaimed by the government and taken away from the private banks.

Personally, I agree with the monetary reformers. But even for those who think this is too radical a proposition, the question is whether a system where debt has to constantly and continually expand to keep the economy afloat is sustainable.

The Ever-Expanding Bubble

In a hearing held on September 30, 1941 in the House Committee on Banking and Currency, then-Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Mariner S. Eccles) said:

That is what our money system is. If there were no debts in our money system, there wouldn’t be any money.

Indeed, Robert H. Hemphill, Credit Manager of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said:

If all the bank loans were paid, no one could have a bank deposit, and there would not be a dollar of coin or currency in circulation. This is a staggering thought. We are completely dependent on the commercial Banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the Banks create ample synthetic money we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system. When one gets a complete grasp of the picture, the tragic absurdity of our hopeless position is almost incredible, but there it is. It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon.

America’s banking system needs to be fundamentally reformed.

Tim Knight

More Crumb


CalculatedRisk

Mortgage Modifications and BofA

Renae Merle at the WaPo writes about Bank of America's struggles to ramp-up their mortgage modification department: Racing the Clock to Avoid Foreclosures

The following section probably requires more explanation:
The company was also slow out of the box because it initially took a more conservative approach than some other banks, requiring that borrowers document their income and complete other paperwork before granting preliminary approval for a modification. In August, Bank of America softened the requirement and began authorizing some modifications without getting all the documents first.
Read mort_fin notes:
"What the article doesn't make clear is that what was changed was the timing of the income documentation, not the level. It used to be the case that bofa required full documentation of income before they would even run the numbers to tell a borrower that they qualified. Now they will give an answer over the phone and start a trial mod, giving the borrower a month or 2 to provide the docs. No docs, no permanent mod. A borrower who can't document their claims gets a month or two of reduced payments before getting kicked out."
This is why it will be important to watch the number of permanent modifications over the next few months. The Treasury announced last week that 500,000 modifications have been started, but the Obama plan had produced only 1,711 permanent loan modifications as of Sept. 1. That number should increase sharply soon.
Paul Hickey

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Debt: Life in Oregon after the bubble

In this watch-the-paint-dry market day, I thought I'd jot down some of the bigger earnings announcements this week, which are sure to rev things up. They are:

Tuesday: INTC, ABT, JNJ

Wednesday: C, GS, JPM

Thursday: BAC, GE, GOOG, IBM


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