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A few weeks ago we noted that we had just received a big delivery of an item we had made. Without further ado, behold Collapse! -- The Commemorative Game of the Financial Crisis. Collapse! is a commemorative game that takes a light hearted approach to the very serious events of the financial crisis. The game allows players to relive the...

After a nice run for nearly 3 years on Typepad, we've decided to move Think B.I.G. to a Squarespace platform. From here on out, all of our posts will be at www.bespokeinvest.com. If you have this site bookmarked in your favorites or on RSS feed, please be sure to switch over. There is a new RSS feed button at www.bespokeinvest.com....

During the financial crisis, we created an index that tracks credit default swap prices for the major banks and brokers across the world. This essentially measures default risk for the financial sector. After declining significantly for the past 9 months, the index has spiked in recent weeks to its highest level since last September. As shown below, the downtrend line...

We broke the S&P 500 into deciles (10 groups of 50 stocks) based on stock performance in 2009 to see if the big winners from last year are the ones getting hit the hardest on the recent pullback. As shown below, they definitely are. The 50 best performing S&P 500 stocks in 2009 have averaged a decline of 9.5% since...

After trading up nearly 1% in the morning, the major markets have tumbled in afternoon trading. This type of action, when the market trades sharply down even though economic reports and earnings reports both beat estimates handily, is not good. There's simply no way to sugercoat it. Since the start of the pullback, earnings and economic numbers have remained strong,...

Below we highlight the breakdown of contributions to the 5.7% Real GDP Growth in Q4 (YoY). Consumption and inventories were big contributors to growth, along with exports due to the weak dollar. One area that didn't contribute to the 5.7% GDP growth was government. In fact, government's contribution to Q4 GDP actually acted as a drag, as the marginal contribution...

The current earnings per share "beat" rate this earnings season is 73% for all US stocks. Below we highlight the percentage of companies in each sector that have beaten estimates. As shown, only three sectors have a higher beat rate than the overall market -- Materials (76.7%), Consumer Discretionary (83.7%), and Technology (87%). Two of the three sectors that are...

While the ultimate pace of the economic rebound continues to be debated, GDP in the fourth quarter rose 5.7% (expectations were for growth of 4.6%), which was the fastest pace in six years. Granted, this growth follows an even bigger decline of 6.4% in the first quarter of 2009, but at least it's a start. Judging by the performance of...

As shown below, the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages in the S&P 500 has dropped to 35%. This is the lowest level seen since mid-2009. Clearly breadth has gotten weak on this pullback. No sectors have more than 50% of stocks above their 50-days, and Consumer Discretionary has the highest reading at 48%. Materials is the weakest...

Bespoke's Paul Hickey will appear on Fox Business Network today (1/28) at 2:30 PM ET to discuss our current market outlook.

The 10-Day A/D Line for the S&P 500 Materials sector is currently more oversold than at any other point since October 2008. It is also currently showing the eleventh most oversold reading since 1990. In the chart below, we highlight each of those occurrences (all occurred after 2000) with a red dot. In the week following the prior ten most...

As shown in the chart below, the Dow has just broken below its support level at the 10,100 mark. This support was formed by the peak in the index in mid-October. Some commentators have been blaming the drop on more tax proposals in Obama's State of the Union speech last night. But even if you think this is the cause...

It's been a great earnings season from a numbers standpoint, but it has been a pretty bad earnings season in terms of stock performance. But some stocks have done well. Below we highlight the 25 companies that have gone up the most on their report days this earnings season. As shown, TSCM has had the best earnings-day peformance with a...

While Ford (F) was typically considered among the most dysfunctional automakers less than three years ago, look who's laughing now. As major players like GM and Toyota can't get out of their own way, both operationally and in terms of their stock prices, their losses have been Ford's gain. Subscribe to Bespoke Premium to receive more in-depth research from Bespoke.

Two big asset-classes had major long-term trend reversals today. When a stock or index is trading above its 200-day moving average, it is considered to be in a long-term uptrend. When the price is trading below the 200-day, it is considered to be in a long-term downtrend. Today, the US Dollar index closed above its 200-day for the first time...

Below we highlight a list of S&P 500 stocks with the highest ratio of open put interest to open call interest. Companies with high put option open interest compared to call option open interest have more bearish than bullish bets. It's similar to a company with high short interest, and some investors view this as bullish or bearish. Investors who...

A few minutes ago on CNBC, Erin Burnett asked her panel of guests if they would consider buying Apple's (AAPL) new iPad tablet computer. The only panelist who raised their hand was Steve Liesman. One of the panelists on the show who didn't raise his hand, however, was Ken Heebner, who manages the CGM Focus Fund. As of its most...

Two days ago we asked Bespoke readers if they thought Bernanke would be confirmed for a second-term by the Senate. As shown below, 88% responded 'yes' and 12% responded 'no'. Over at Intrade, the odds are now all the way up to 98%. Subscribe to Bespoke Premium to receive more in-depth research from Bespoke.

Who said a stock split wasn't good for your stock? Last week's 50-1 split of shares in Berkshire Hathaways' class B stock (BRK/b) helped set the stage for last night's announcement that S&P would add the stock to the S&P 500. As a result, the stock is trading up 5% in early trading. Factoring in today's advance, Berkshire Hathaway now...

The earnings picture continues to look impressive. Heading into the close yesterday, the earnings beat rate (% of companies beating EPS estimates) stood at 71%, which is high in its own right. Last night and this morning, another 64 companies reported earnings, taking the total number of US companies that have reported since earnings season began up to 223. As...

As shown below, 42% of stocks in the S&P 500 are currently trading below their 50-day moving averages. This is just below the 43% reading seen at the bottom back in October, so things don't currently look great from a breadth perspective. Tomorrow is one of those days that we see maybe 4 or 5 times a year where the...

On a closing basis, the S&P 500 stopped going down right at the 1,091 level, which has acted as key support four times now since last November. Now that the index has found support in the short-term, traders will focus on the 50-day moving average as the next level of resistance, which is about 13 points above the index's current...

Just like the earnings beat rate this quarter, the percentage of companies raising guidance versus lowering guidance is also strong. As shown below, 12.6% of companies that have reported earnings this season have raised guidance, while just 2% have lowered guidance. In the prior two quarters, we saw positive guidance outnumber negative guidance, but the current spread this quarter would...

Worries over the confirmation of Ben Bernanke eased somewhat today as the administration reiterated its support for the current Fed Chairman and polling of Senators showed that he's at least on track to get the 60 votes needed. Traders at Intrade currently have the odds of confirmation for a second term at 90%. We are wondering if Bespoke readers, whom...

Apple (AAPL) had a nice day today, closing up $5.32 to $203.08. The stock had a strong earnings report after the close, and it closed the after-hours session up another $1.52 to $204.60. While this is a small gain for Apple compared to what it does sometimes after earnings reports, it is a significant gain because it has put the...

Right or wrong, there's no denying the fact that many Americans think that people who work on Wall Street are paid too much. While this view was certainly present before the bailouts, it has bubbled up to the forefront of popular opinion since then. Those of the view that bonuses should be capped or restricted argue that even banks who...

Only 150 companies have reported earnings since Alcoa kicked off earnings season earlier this month, and 70% of them have beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share. The earnings beat rate was 68% in the prior two quarters, so beating that number was going to be tough. But so far, companies have delivered. With the market struggling, it appears as...

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