Archiv für das Tag 'Goldman Sachs'

Tyler Durden

Frontrunning: March 15

  • Ah, the benefits of monopolies: Goldman Sachs Demands Derivatives Collateral It Won’t Dish Out (Bloomberg)
  • FASB hypocricy: banks face mark-to-market hypocricy (WSJ)
  • Rising money market rates hint Treasury losses amid Fed exit (Bloomberg)
  • EU to discuss Greek aid, Germany skeptical (Reuters)
  • Stocks decline in China economy concern; pound, euro weaken (Bloomberg)
  • Paul Murphy: The truth about speculators - they are doing God's work (FT)
  • Could Lehman be E&Y's Enron (Reuters)
  • China talks tough on US currency (WSJ)
  • Loan squeeze thwarts small-business revival (WSJ)
  • Greece's crisis, Germany's gain (LA Times)
  • Politics, shaky economy create no rush to restructure Fannie and Freddie (WaPo)
  • In connection with last week's near €300 billion liquidity withdrawal, Liquidity measure withdrawal not surprising markets (Market News)
  • Deficits and the decade ahead (Fundmastery)
  • Dodd's financial reform won't fix the banks (RCM)
Tyler Durden

On The Stupidity Of Sell-Side Analysts

We have often noted our confusion at the seemingly impossible: a sellside analyst, coming to work each and every day, even though this process tends to be preceded by the monumentally difficult process of tying one's shoes. But don't take our word for it - the Valukas gift that keeps on giving, has summarized some of the more relevant analyst quotes disseminated by the sell-side to their clients, in the days and months before the firm filed for bankruptcy. (Stunningly, Dick Bove's Buy call on Lehman days before the firm blew up did not make the list). Instead of actually digging into the numbers, (hint - if Einhorn did it, it can be done] every single analyst was perfectly happy to accept the "reality" that was presented to them (with remarkably few exceptions) and spin it in to some sort of positive case, just so the firm's sales and trading operation could milk a few extra dollars in commissions from LEH shares. Let's dig in:

In addition to documents demonstrating that Lehman, internally, continued to focus in 2008 on reducing its firm?wide leverage, analysts and the market similarly continued their focus on the firm’s leverage. A few illustrative examples of analyst comments follow:

  • “The modest silver lining is that LEH was able to reduce gross assets by $130 billion, including large reductions in mortgage related (15%?20%) and leveraged loan (35%) exposures.” - Sandler O’Neill & Partners Report, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (June 9, 2008), at p. 1
  • “Leverage is down a lot (and even more post capital raise) . . . illiquid positions are down 15%?20% . . . .” UBS Investment Research, First Read: Lehman Brothers (June 9, 2008), at p. 1
  • “While LEH reduced gross leverage from 32x to 25x, increased their liquidity pool from $34B to $45B, and drove reductions across most troubled asset classes (and reduced total assets by $130B or 17%), we await more details on total remaining troubled assets in aggregate as well as a L?III or illiquid asset update to help answer the question of whether $6B in incremental capital raise is sufficient.” Bank of America Equity Research Report, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (June 9, 2008), at p. 1
  • “[T]he firm aggressively de?leveraged in the quarter as total balance sheet assets declined by $130 bn and net assets declined by about $60 bn, bringing gross leverage to 25.0x from 31.7x and net leverage to 12.5x from 15.4x. This broad based selling likely exacerbated the write?downs the firm took this quarter. As part of its de?leveraging, Lehman reduced RMBS and CMBS exposure by 15?20%, leveraged loans by 35% and high yield by 20%. While Lehman is clearly not out of the woods just yet, we believe today’s
    announced capital raise will reduce investors’ fears and help promote a better liquidation of assets should LEH want to continue to reduce its leverage." Goldman Sachs Report, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (June 9, 2008), at p. 1
  • “Despite the negative results this quarter, there were some positive takeaways: Balance sheet and leverage reduced . . . . Riskier assets cut . . . .” Buckingham Research Report, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (June 9, 2008), at p. 2
  • “Overall, we believe the company’s moves to de?leverage the balance sheet are positive factors from a ratings perspective." CreditSights Report, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (June 9, 2008), at p. 4
  • “LEH reduced its balance sheet by $130bn (or 17%) and reduced net assets by $60bn. Even despite the large loss, this drove net leverage down to 12.5x and gross leverage below 25x. After the announced capital raise of $4bn in common equity and $2bn in mandatory convertible preferred, we expect gross leverage on a pro forma basis to fall to close to 20x and net leverage to fall to 10x – by far the lowest in the industry (25% – 35% lower than peers) . . . . [M]anagement noted that much of the sell down was focused on the riskier and less liquid assets, rather than the high grade and more liquid securities.” Buckingham Research Report, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (June 9, 2008), at p. 2
  • “The company’s gross leverage ratio improved to 24.3x (vs. 31.7x in 1Q08 ) and its net leverage ratio decreased to 12.0x, down from 15.4x in the prior quarter. The improvement in the leverage ratios were driven by lower asset levels, partially offset by a drop in equity as the firm delevered its balance sheet. Lehman noted that it had finished the balance sheet de?leveraging it wanted to achieve, but it had not achieved the balance sheet mix that it wanted. So, we sense the company will continue to opportunistically dispose of mortgage?related exposures and leveraged lending.” CreditSights Report, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (June 16, 2008), at p. 2

Oddly enough, none of these analysts highlighted the main risk, which was, oh, I don't know, BANKRUPTCY?

As expected, banks begin denying any involvement in Repo 105s. The first one out of the gate - Goldman Sachs. MarketWatch reports just that: "Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Friday that it has never used a transaction known as Repo 105. Goldman Sachs has never used this transaction," a spokesman for the investment bank said in an email to MarketWatch." We are confident that finding perpetrators will increasingly mean focusing off-shore, especially in Britain (here's looking at your Barclays and RBS). As the Examiner points out, quoting an email from Mike O'Meara, then Lehman's CRO (risk, not restructuring officer - they wouldn't get one of those until a few month later) to Ryan Traversari (Senior VP of External Reporting):

Citigroup and JPMorgan “likely do not do Repo 105 and Repo 108 which are UK?based specific transactions.

It may be time for Barclays to issue a denial as well?

Here comes the first municipal Hail Mary: Detroit is attempting to sell $250 million in debt, while disclosing in the associated prospectus of the possibility of filing for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection. The kicker as Bloomberg News reports - no recent financial statements are available. In fact, Detroit is providing investors with a a financial statement from June 30, 2008, with a fiscal 2009 report "expected" to be complete by May 31. To say that a lot has changed in the past two years for the city whose unemployment some say is in the double digits with a 3 handle, would be an understatment. Yet we are confident that having no access to actual financials will not stop investors who in their feverish quest of Return On Capital are completely forgetting about the Return Of Capital concept.

“This issue is not for the faint of heart,” said Richard Ciccarone, chief research officer of Oak Brook, Illinois-based McDonnell Investment Management, which oversees $6.8 billion of municipal debt. “It certainly raises eyebrows.”

Detroit will provide backing by payments of state aid from sales taxes to the general obligation issue, which enabled the issue to maintain investment grade. Michigan’s state treasurer can pay the aid directly to the trustee for the bonds, bypassing the city to ensure the debt is serviced, according to offering documents. The treasurer also agreed not to withhold payments when the city is late filing financial statements, as it has in the past.

And just who is the bank that is confident it can pull the wool in front of its clients' eyes? Why Goldman Sachs of course.

Detroit is selling $250 million of bonds through investment banks led by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to help cover budget deficits expected to total $280 million this year. The deal will probably appeal to investors seeking high-yield municipal debt, predicted Ciccarone, precluding the city from a market with tax- exempt yields near three-month lows.

Not too surprisingly, Detroit will end up paying a spread evern greater than Greece

Detroit general obligations maturing in 2024 traded yesterday at a yield of 7.56 percent, according to Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board data. That compares with yields of 3.36 percent to 3.5 percent for top-rated 14-year municipal debt yesterday, according to Municipal Market Advisors Inc.

This is the lunacy of CDOs all over again, when every Tom, Dick and Harry would park their capital into whatever was being pitched to them by Goldman persistent , having no idea about the actual investment, with Goldman most certainly buying up CDS on Detroit just after the closing of the auction, for "hedging purposes" (and no, that in itself will not push Detroit into bankruptcy: at best it will make the imminent solvency crisis come faster and be more painless).

Detroit is not alone as munis slowly but surely become the next subprime. On deck as offerings by Florida, California, Massachussettes, and variety of other municipal issues.

America's labor unions are finally waking up from their deep slumber and noticing the vast schism in American society between the haves and the have nots. The catalyst: Wall Street's $16.2 billion bonus pay day. As a result Richard Trumka, head of the AFL-CIO, the nation's largest union organization, and a firm supporter of the transaction tax which was proposed in late 2009 and then promptly buried after some serious lobbying by Wall Street, will announce today "two weeks of protests aimed at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the most profitable securities firm in U.S. history, and the country’s five other largest banks. The AFL-CIO says it plans 200 events covering all 50 states, starting March 15." Summarizing the mood of increasing populist aggression across the nation against Wall Street's uber-wealthy is labor professor at UC Berkley Harley Shaiken: “Wall Street has become a symbol of greed run amok, and what labor is doing here is seeking to demonstrate that it is speaking for working families generally, union member or non- union member.” Strikes in Greece have already paralyzed the country. Will America soon follow?

More from Bloomberg:

At the “Make Wall Street Pay” rallies, which the AFL-CIO plans to announce today, union members will push for a transaction tax on securities trading to help pay for the $900 billion they want the government to spend on creating new jobs. That’s 60 times the $15 billion approved by the Senate last month. The House of Representatives last week passed an $18 billion measure.

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner has said he opposes the transaction tax, though Trumka says it has support in the White House. He declined to say who the backers are.

Lucas van Praag, a spokesman for Goldman Sachs in New York, declined to comment.

San Francisco-based Wells Fargo & Co. “recognizes Americans are demanding more from their financial institutions during these difficult economic times” and is “committed to serving the financial needs of businesses and individuals, keeping credit flowing, and working to help those in financial distress find solutions,” spokeswoman Julia Tunis Bernard said.

Labor unions have been furious that their traditional political allies, the Democrats, have essentially morphed into Republicans when it comes to treatment of social classes, with Wall Street getting top priority in all dealings, and everyone else a distant second. So far the only major concession that the presidency has presented to labor unions has been the preferential treatment in the automotive bankruptcies. Ironically, the Congressional Oversight Panel has come out with a scathing report noting that the Treasury's decision to bail out GMAC has been in fact counterproductive:

The U.S. Treasury's decision against a bankruptcy restructuring for GMAC may have increased taxpayer bailout costs for the auto finance company and made it less viable. "The panel remains unconvinced that bankruptcy was not a viable option in 2008," it said in the report. "In connection with the Chrysler and General Motors bankruptcies, Treasury might have been able to orchestrate a strategic bankruptcy for GMAC."

As a result, this will only make the pain more acute for labor when zombie organizations populated predominantly by labor, inevitably end up in liquidation due to their "reduced viability." And labor is fully aware of the increasing loss of its political clout.

By targeting banks, unions are trying to bring energy to a labor movement that has seen its ranks dwindle. Union membership in the private sector declined in 2009 to a record low of 7.2 percent of all workers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unions represented about 35 percent of the private- sector workers in the mid-1950s, and 17 percent as recently as 1983.

“Unions don’t have the clout they used to, so they need to get the general public involved, maybe even people who are not normally union supporters, and remind them they are getting the short end of the stick,” said Charles Craver, a labor professor at George Washington University in Washington.

The rallies are similar to efforts by the Service Employees International Union, which has been targeting big banks for years. In November, SEIU president Andy Stern staged a rally outside Goldman Sachs’s Washington office, calling for the bank to cancel its bonuses. The SEIU, with 2.2 million members, is the nation’s largest union.

“SEIU believes that big banks played a central role in crashing the economy,” said Stephen Lerner, who directs the union’s financial reform project. “We are calling on them to be part of the solution instead of increasing their own pay while making problems worse for the rest of the country.”

So far Wall Street has laughed in the general direction of labor, knowing too well where the balance of power rests. However, should labor succeed in generating a grass roots movement on the coattails of the populist, and well deserved, anger at Wall Street, and throws in a few strikes for good measure, and things may change rapidly. After all just look at Greece, where the entire economy is now shut down as people say no to the draconian measures imposed on society by a government which for over a decade was drunk with providing entitlements courtesy of fraudulent economic representation. With austerity sooner or later sure to come to the US, the question of strikes is now not a question of if but simply when. And the primary target of all social activity is and continues to be the symbol of all that is wrong with the current system - Goldman Sachs.

We have now reached a point when a Senator has to write a well-intentioned letter to the very administration he serves, (whose sworn duty is to preserve the wealth of all of its constituents, not just Goldman Sachs), with a cautionary tale that continued lying to the general population combined with a culture of opacity and persistent fraud, will lead to a disastrous effect to the economy and to the very fabric of American society. Alas, in a society in which those being lied to extract a satisfaction as great, if not greater, from this process, than those doing the actual lying, this is not too surprising. Sticking our collective heads in the sand has traditionally worked miracles for resolving the bulk of this nation's problems. And with the public sector now demonstrating a preferential treatment for the financial space, at the expense of 99% of the remaining population, it has become obvious US citizens can no longer rely on the US government for procuring the truth. Furthermore, with China now a vassal owner of America via its undisputed creditor status, we may soon lose the protection the government is entrusted with affording its citizens in other realms, from enemies certainly domestic (mostly located in south Manhattan), and very possibly foreign. Yet, another voice of caution that has recently emerged, and whose message is critical to all, is that of Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian. The Pimco executive has written another very relevant Op-Ed in the Financial Times, "How to handle the sovereign debt explosion" which does not so much disclose new things, as capture the essence of the groundbreaking transformation that is currently occurring within the entire "developed" world, and more specifically, the denial that the vast majority of "experts" are exhibiting when faced with a previously unseen process of unprecedented significance.

While we recommend reading the entire article, the following section is of particular note:

We should expect (rather than be surprised by) damaging recognition lags in both the public and private sectors. Playbooks are not readily available when it comes to new systemic themes. This leads many to revert to backward-looking analytical models, the thrust of which is essentially to assume away the relevance of the new systemic phenomena.


There is a further complication. Timely recognition is necessary but not sufficient. It must be followed by the correct response. Here, history suggests that it is not easy for companies and governments to overcome the tyranny of backward-looking internal commitments.


Where does all this leave us? Our sense is that the importance of the shock to public finances in advanced economies is not yet sufficiently appreciated and understood. Yet, with time, it will prove to be highly consequential. The sooner this is recognised, the greater the probability of being able to stay ahead of the disruptions rather than be hurt by them.

Precisely the same argument can be brought against Ben Bernanke who in numerous public appearances saw no threat of the bubble bursting in 2005-6, and who, unfathomably, sees no threat of a massive-liquidity bubble explosion currently.

The question we need to ask is shy are we getting this critical insight from a member of the private sector? Why is nobody in government addressing this critical issue and bringing the population's attention to this most material of systemic patterns. Instead we bicker over the end of civilization as we know it should Goldman collapse (it won't: it will simply mean that Goldman's 23,500 staffers will finally have to do an honest day's work for once in their lives if they want to get paid), or how many quadrillion it will cost for the government to nationalize healthcare, and every other industry. Yes- we should be getting this warning from the Federal Reserve, and from those who hope to become the Fed's new members - a position which once upon a time was considered an admirable accomplishment yet now puts you roughly in line with the lepers, hookers, wifebeaters and prison rats in the social hierarchy. We should but we don't - all we get from this government is silence. Instead we get a daily barrage from government bought cheerleaders who preach that all is well, and that precisely the warnings of El-Erian and so many others are to be ignored. And the crowning glory of how far our society has fallen is that the vast majority among us chose to believe these lies, and gladly hand over money to buy another share of Lehman brothers which is in liquidation yet still trades.

And somehow Bernie Madoff is in jail for doing just what the government does to us every single day.

Former Bridgewater-ite (which we hear is not doing that hot lately) Rick Bookstaber, who was recently appointed at the SEC in some risk management capacity, comes out with a truly amusing rant on why gold is in a bubble, and, not just that, but that "we all know gold is in a bubble." Ignore the fact that all multi-billionaire hedge fund managers have been loading up, all relevant and semi-relevant pundits have been claiming that gold is gradually becoming the one alternative to fiat debasement which has recently become a global phenomenon, and ignore that even with the dollar going up, gold has defended its 1,100 an ounce price quite successfully. Bookstaber compiles vivid imagery upon even more vivid imagery, and goes as far as comparing the quest for gold with the pursuit of hookers "Even if a guy is just after sex, he at least has the decency to act like there is some substance behind his interest. But with gold, no one seems even to care about giving a justification, other than “gold has been a store of value throughout 5,000 years of monetary history”. No one? Dear Mr. Bookstaber, feel free to peruse the following thoughts by Eric Sprott, Dylan Grice, Hugh Hendry, David Rosenberg, Fred Hickey, Jim Grant, David Einhorn and last but not least, Goldman Sachs, on some contrarian opinions to your prevailing dogma. And speaking of unconflicted advance warning vis-a-vis ponzi bubbles, where was your current employer cautioning the general population about the dot com bubble? Or the housing/credit bubble? Or the Madoff ponzi? Or the current Great Currency Deflation Bubble? Perhaps you can expend your time and energy on the real source of soon-to-be unparalleled wealth loss instead of focusing on the fringe "tin foil"-hatted gold community which nobody takes seriously anyway (except India of course which just incidentally bought 200 tons of gold north of $1,000).

From the SEC-member's blog:


The Gold Bubble

This represents my personal opinion, not the views of the SEC or its staff.

I am not going to spend time here talking about how the price of gold is off-the-wall, that it is not just a bubble in the making, but a bubble waiting to burst. I don’t want to waste your time on that point.We all know it is a bubble.


George Soros has said “The ultimate asset bubble is gold”. Many of the top asset managers, such as Tudor and Paulson, are piling on; Paul Tudor Jones recently said gold “has its time and place, and now is that time.” The banks are echoing this view with their research. Goldman has a research piece that looks for gold to approach $1,400 in the next year. The more ebullient Charles Morris of HSBC has said, “I absolutely believe it’s heading into a bubble, but that’s why you buy it. ” He, along with a number of other professional and otherwise rational managers, looks for gold to move as high as $5,000 an ounce.


More interesting than this almost universal agreement is what that agreement tells us about the dynamics of the market.

The Naked Bubble

Usually the markets have the courtesy of giving cover for bubbles. We adorn the bubbles with some justification. Even if a guy is just after sex, he at least has the decency to act like there is some substance behind his interest. For the Internet bubble, it was that fundamental analysis based on the brick and mortar world did not bear relevance in the New Paradigm. For the Nikkei bubble, it was that the crazy P/E ratios were not considering one subtlety or another in the Japanese accounting system.

But with gold, no one seems even to care about giving a justification, other than “gold has been a store of value throughout 5,000 years of monetary history”. Which is fine as far as it goes, but that doesn’t say anything about what the price of that store of value should be.

Pump and Dump

Given that “hedge fund” and “highly secretive” are usually said in the same breath, don’t you get suspicious when so many of the top managers are so vocally out there about their gold investments? And when their positions are structured in a way that make them open to view? Paulson and Soros have huge positions in gold ETFs. We know that, because if you buy ETFs, they show up in your 13-F filing. Granted, with an equity investment you can’t help putting that information out into the market, but with an asset there are plenty of ways to take the position without signaling it.

That they are taking a highly visible route to their positions suggests the game that is being played is one of leading the herd. The 13-F reports positions with a big lag, so no one will notice if they quietly slip out the side door while the party is still hopping. And how about when the view is backed up by none other than Goldman Sachs? Will they let everyone know when they think it has gone too far before they get out. Or before they go short? Maybe they already have.

Herds, crowds, mobs, and the Top Ten

And yet, we follow the herd, as we have countless times in the past. Herding is a timeless and universal market behavior, but one that seems less than rational. It is broader than markets; think of the Top Ten phenomenon. We feel better if a lot of other people think that our favorite artist or actor is The Best. We like a song better if we know a lot of other people are liking it as well. Thus our love affair with lists. Magazines featuring the Ten Sexiest, the Five Best, the 100 Whatever are all best sellers, even if the list is the product of a story meeting between an editor and five reporters.

Herding can be explained as an artifact of what was rational behavior in earlier times, when we were running around as hunter gatherers. Back then, mob and herding behavior made sense. Mob behavior if attacking a competitive group or killing a large animal; herding behavior if protecting against predators or uprooting to a new location. Whatever it was that got started, you could be pretty sure there was safety in having a crowd on hand to finish it.

The very notion of mobs and herds evokes a certain spontaneity.
But with the gold bubble, we are moving on to a concept of herding by appointment. Everyone seems to be happy in agreeing that this is a bubble, and we are all going to participate in this bubble in a rational, genteel way. We have all decided that this is going to be a number one hit, a Top Ten. Though we might want to ask who is leading this herd, because my bet is they will be stepping aside and cheering us over the cliff.

Two months ago we first presented a very gloomy outlook on Japan by Dylan Grice, one of the more erudite skeptics currently out there. Dylan's thesis was simple, and was subsequently taken up by a variety of other pundits to express comparable concerns about developed countries with burgeoning debt levels, namely that an aging population, now actively engaged in asset sales, will have less of an ability to participate in its traditional role of purchasing JGBs. Dylan takes this opportunity to rebuff critics, and to point out that no matter how the data is sliced, when adjusted for the ever so prevalent "recency bias", and when confronted with a topic near and dear to Zero Hedge, namely record rolls of increasing shorter-duration debt, coupled with an open admission by the biggest holderof JGBs, the Government Pension Investment Fund has "zero money to invest", the recently awakend bond vigilantes (with or without the evil CDS speculator cousins) will very soon migrate away from the Eurozone periphery and focus on where the material problems really are focused. Unfortunately no amount of postruing by Merkel or Sarkozy can do much to change the fact that the imminent funding crisis for the world's 2nd 3rd largest economy is becoming all too real.

Here is how Dylan himself summarizies his view:

The thesis I outlined back in January was that since Japanese households ? the biggest effective drivers of JGB demand ? are set to dis-save in coming years as they retire (left-hand chart below) there will soon be no one left to finance the government?s nosebleed deficits at current yields. Indeed, the chart below suggests households are already running down assets. And because the interest rates which might attract international investors will inevitably blow up the budget (debt service is already 35% of government revenues at existing yields) there is a very clear and present danger that the government reverts to the well-established historical precedent for cash-strapped governments of currency debasement.


The most common argument I received on why I was wrong to worry was along the lines that Japan has had rising debt ratios and huge deficits for many years now. Not only have yields fallen, but the economy has struggled with deflation, not inflation.


To me this feels like "?recency?" bias at work, which is a type of "?availability?" bias by which we overweight events we find easy to imagine relative to those we don?t. Japanese debt markets have been stable for such a long time it?s difficult to imagine anything different, so we don?t imagine anything different and predict that the future will look like the past. Now, Japan?s debt markets may well remain very stable in the future and I?m very open to the strong possibility that I?m barking up the wrong tree. But ?logic? like that outlined above is lazy indeed. It echoes Bernanke?s now infamous 2005 conclusion that nationwide housing collapse in the US wouldn?t happen because it hadn?t happened before. More thoughtful critics argued that I was ignoring the Japanese government?s significant financial assets. Taking this into account shows a net debt position of closer to 100% of GDP (chart below), considerably more manageable than the 200% gross debt-to-GDP ratio and more in line with other OECD economies such as Italy and Belgium (great!).



But I'?m not so convinced by this argument, or to be more accurate, I?m not so convinced the numbers underlying this argument are correct. For a start, around 40% of the assets recorded on the asset side of the Japanese government?s balance sheet don?t actually belong to the Japanese government. They belong to Social Security and therefore to the  Japanese public. That the vehicle which owns the assets happens to be publicly owned doesn?t change the fact that it is a very real liability owed to individuals who must be either paid or defaulted on. It doesn?t just cancel out.

And just in case you thought our concerns about central bank insolvency could be limited to the US, it should come as no surprise that Japan has very much the same issues when it comes to the asset side of its balance sheet.

And who on earth knows what the other assets are worth anyway? The central government, for example, has funded projects deemed "?socially useful?" and which private markets wouldn?t finance. These loans, made via direct ?investments? in public sector organisations (called Fiscal Investment and Loan Program [FILP] agencies), are recorded as assets on the government balance sheet worth around 10% of GDP. Yet we know from decades of banking problems and bank recapitalisations that even the loans that markets did finance soured pretty spectacularly, so one wouldn?t imagine the FILP agency loans to be of particularly high quality. Indeed, a few years ago two economists at the NBER reckoned that nearly half of the FILP agencies were insolvent. Maybe those assets are being provisioned for correctly on the government?s books, but ? and call me a cynic if you like ? I really doubt it.


But even if we assume those numbers are a fair reflection of asset value there is also the implicit assumption that the Japanese government can monetise them. But I don?t think they can. Shares and equity stakes are marked at around 20% of GDP, mainly reflecting Japan Post Bank - the "?jewel in the crown?" - with $2.5 trillion in deposits. But last year, plans for its long-awaited privatisation were shelved, apparently for fear that on a purely private sector calculus, many small and medium-sized companies wouldn?t qualify for the funding they need to stay afloat. Keeping it in public sector hands was the only way to ensure their life-support credit lines weren?t cut. Of course, I may just be being cynical again, but I note that Post Bank is also a huge buyer of JGBs and doubt it was just the SMEs life support the government was worried about?

Grice brings up a relevant counterpoint: is the demand calculus in Japan merely shifting away from traditional buyers of JGBs in favor of a just as yield "ravenous" corporate sector? Bear in mind this is much less of an issue for the US, where traditionally low household saving rates have meant at best a rotation out of one asset into another, and never a de facto new and/or persistent demand interest. After all we had the Chinese doing that for us, with the receipt of the cash of all those trinkets that Americans just had to have over the past 10 years. Regardless, when it comes to China

This leads nicely to the other argument worth thinking about, which runs like this: the household sector may well be retiring and less able to absorb new JGB issuance, but the corporate sector is expanding thanks to a vibrant export sector. Since corporate sector savings are as large as households? isn?t it reasonable to expect them to take over as the primary source for government funding? The honest truth is that I don?t know. Maybe, I guess. But my gut feeling is pretty definitively no. For one, the corporate sector doesn’t actually have as large a pool of savings as the household sector.

For another, the corporate sector ? even in Japan ? doesn?t have anywhere near the same propensity to hoard cash (see chart above). Open the papers today, for example, and you read about Astellas Pharma going hostile on OSI, where it thinks it can buy its way out of Japanese stagnation. When companies have money, they need to spend ? sorry "?invest?" ? it (occasionally they even need to return it to shareholders). Anyway, it looks unlikely to me that companies are going to take over from households in financing the government?s deficit.

So in summary, refutations of the funding crisis are still lacking (Grice welcomes all input on where he may be wrong). In the meantime, it appears that the facts are in his favor, especially when one considers that the two primary traditional sources of demand are fallling by the wayside.

So I still worry. Households are retiring and running down their wealth; non-financial corporates don?t hold as much cash. So the non-financial sector (i.e. households plus nonfinancial corporates) just isn?t going to be in a position to provide the financial sector with the deposits it needs to recycle into JGBs.


That leaves the foreign sector as the only candidate to fund the government?s ever increasing structural deficits and explains the increased frequency of JGB roadshows we?re seeing around the globe. But is it realistic to expect foreign investors to fund a likely insolvent government at 1.5% (if this week?s Greek financings are a fair gauge, investors want closer to 6% to fund insolvent governments)? Anyway, debt service already accounts for 35% of the Japanese budget! Any reasonable interest rate will expose Japan?s budget for the mess it is.


But why take my word for it? Why listen to the rantings of some supposed ?perma-bear?; a deranged strategist working on a cold rainy island on the other side of the Eurasian continent from Tokyo, and with no great insight into the workings the JGB market or much else for that matter? Well, you shouldn?t. But you might want to take Takahiro Kawase, head of Japan?'s $1.2tr Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) and the largest owner of JGBs on the planet, more seriously. He said last summer, "?The big change this year for us is that there is zero new money to invest, so we may need to be a seller in the market to meet the pension benefits … our bond allocations are overweight, so we may need to reduce those a bit to raise cash.” Not to worry, though, because he doesn?t think it will have much effect on the market. “… the sales are not expected to be big, as we can cover the shortfall from maturing bonds.

Ah: maturing bonds - the dreaded roll problem. We have recently demonstrated the major concern that rolling near-term debt is for Europe (here and here), here is what it looks like for Japan - the total amounts to a whopping 45% of GDP!

It sure does look a little scary. More from Dylan:

How significant a problem is this? In last week?s FT, Gillian Tett pointed to the importance of debt maturity in assessing fiscal breathing space. UK debt maturity, at 14 years, is one of the longest, while the US, at 5 years, is one of the shortest. In Japan, based on the Bloomberg data on the front page chart, the number is around 6, and ¥213 trillion matures in 2010.


To spell that out: we are going into a year in which the government has ¥213 trillion of bonds to roll over (chart below), and the biggest holder of JGBs is openly admitting he has no new inflows of money. I suspect he?s not as confident as he?s making out that this won?t be a problem, and I suspect the Japanese authorities aren?t either. Otherwise, they wouldn?t be scrambling to arrange a new borrowing facility for the GPIF so that it doesn?t have to sell JGBs to fund its pension obligations.?


Is Grice right? Time will tell. When a new, countertrend idea emerges, it needs a critical mass to gain traction. Are we going to see "idea dinners" in which selling JGBs (or, gasp, buying Japan CDS) is discussed? Unlikely. Especially not with Goldman Sachs as organizer. Yet the facts speak for themselves. We are on the cusp of a secular shift between traditional supply and demand mechanics, both in Japan and everywhere else, as the prevailing population gets older. Of course, the ramifications of all these observations are just as critical for America as they are for Japan. As we have been discussing extensively in the past, the real crisis is not Greece, not the UK, and not even Japan so much (and as for China who knows - if real, unmanipulated Chinese debt/GDP is at almost 100% as some economists have claimed recently, it will get quite interesting), but in our own country, whose only generic fall back is "we print the dollar." One critical, and as yet unanswered, question is just how long can this particular excuse be reapplied over and over.

First China comes through on its threat of disposing US securities, now Europe is rapidly isolating Wall Street from participating in European sovereign bond offerings. The Guardian reports that "for the first time in five years, no big US investment bank appears among the top nine sovereign bond bookrunners in Europe, according to Dealogic data compiled for the Guardian." Curiously, just the one bank which has recently found itself out of favor with domestic investors, Morgan Stanley, has a notable presence in Euro sovereign league tables (at number 10). The biggest loser - the dynamic duo of vampire squid and Fed Jr. "Goldman Sachs doesn't make the table. Goldman made it to number five last year and in 2006, and number eight in 2007, the data shows. JP Morgan was in the top ten last year and in 2007 and 2006 but doesn't appear this year." European leaders are funny - first they use Goldman for everything; now that they have been caught red-handed, they avoid Goldman like the plague.

And while the lost corp fin revenue stream is likely not huge (for now), should domestic issuers follow in Europe's footsteps, it may get a little tricky. We wonder when the Huffington Post will start a "move your money" campaign for capital raisers: urge companies to go to small and boutique banks instead of the bulge bracket behemoths... When dying from a thousand cuts, each little one counts.

As the Guardian puts it:

"Governments do not have the confidence that the excessive risk-taking culture of the big Wall Street banks has changed and they still cannot be trusted to put the stability of the financial system before profit;" said Arlene McCarthy, vice chair of the European parliament's economic and monetary affairs committee. "It is no surprise therefore that governments are reluctant to do business with banks that have failed to learn the lesson of the crisis. The banks need to acknowledge the mistakes that were made and behave in an ethical way to regain the trust and confidence of governments... Britain, Spain, Ireland and Belgium have not used Wall Street firms in the largest 10 deals of the year, according to Dealogic."

What about Greece, whose head credit decision-maker is a former Goldmanite? Surely they must have used Goldman in some capacity even after the whole swap-gate:

The National Bank of Greece featured in the top 10 for the first time in at least five years, according to Dealogic. Greece left Goldman and Morgan Stanley out of its most recent bond sale, and also dropped hedge funds from its list. Petros Christodoulou, the head of Greece's debt management office, told the Guardian the bond issue had been directed to more "long-term" investors as they were seeking market stability. Greece has had tense relationships with Goldman recently after it emerged that the US bank had helped hide the real level of the country's public debt with derivatives contracts. The country also denied reports about the bank selling a stake of its debt to the Chinese government fund.

Hmm guess not. So how is Goldman taking this:

Goldman Sachs said its overall position in the European sovereign bond market had improved this quarter once US dollar denominated deals were included. It said its own data showed it ranked fourth in European sovereign bond sales this year.

But before you shed a tear for Wall Street and the 2% of annual revenues it may lose, read this:

The power accumulated is too large to wane, the author said. "I doubt this will last," he said. "The US investment banks will be back in Europe before too long because they are very powerful and they have a very big footprint in Europe."

When the very people, impacted by the phenomenon that Thomas Jefferson discussed hundreds of years ago would be the end of democracy, could not care less, it is always merely a matter of time before everything is back to normal. We would say the cycle continues, only now, with the assistance of every single central bank in the world, it is no longer a cycle, but a straight line... which goes only straight up. 

 

In a letter to the CFTC's Chairman, Gary Gensler, GATA Chairman William Murphy shares the following bombshell:

"GATA has evidence that there are enormous physical short positions in the gold and silver markets that cannot be covered."

Even as the CFTC is meeting later this month to establish position limits in the gold, silver, and other precious metals' markets, it could be none other than the CFTC's core banks, and Mr. Gensler's former Goldman bosses, that form the very core of the biggest market manipulation collusion syndicate in the history of the commodity markets.

Because of the decades-long interference with the gold market, we estimate that the free-market price of gold is multiples of the current price. Growing stress caused by burgeoning physical bullion demand is threatening to lead to a price explosion, which will restore to the market the balance that regulation has failed to maintain. In our view, the Comex paper market will become dysfunctional, with "force majeure" having to be declared as the concentrated shorts are unable to deliver on their obligations."

If GATA is not bluffing and indeed has evidence of massively uncoverable physical positions, and should this evidence be made public, the repercussions for the price of gold will be unprecedented.

Full GATA letter to ex-Goldmanite, and Brooklandville, MD resident, Gary Gensler:

March 8, 2010

Gary Gensler, Chairman
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
3 Lafayette Centre
1155 21st St. NW
Washington, DC 20581

Dear Chairman Gensler:

The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) was formed in January 1999 to expose and oppose the manipulation and suppression of the price of gold. What we have learned over the past 11 years is of great importance in regard to the CFTC’s forthcoming hearings regarding position limits in the precious metals futures markets. Our efforts to expose manipulation in the gold market parallel those of Harry Markopolos to expose the Madoff Ponzi scheme to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Initially we thought that the manipulation of the gold market was undertaken as a coordinated profit scheme by certain bullion banks, like JPMorgan, Chase Bank, and Goldman Sachs, and that it violated federal and state anti-trust laws. But we soon discerned that the bullion banks were working closely with the U.S. Treasury Department and Federal Reserve in a gold cartel, part of a broad scheme of manipulation of the currency, precious metals, and bond markets.

As an executive at Goldman Sachs in London, Robert Rubin developed an idea to borrow gold from central banks at minimal interest rates (around 1 percent), sell the bullion for cash, and use the cash to fund Goldman Sachs' operations. Rubin was confident that central banks would control the gold price with ever-more leasing or outright sales of their gold reserves and that consequently the borrowed gold could be bought back without difficulty. This was the beginning of the gold carry trade.

When Rubin became U.S. treasury secretary, he made it government policy to surreptitiously operate an identical gold carry trade but on a much larger scale. This became the principal mechanism of what was called the "strong-dollar policy." Subsequent treasury secretaries have repeated a commitment to a "strong dollar," suggesting that they were continuing to feed official gold into the market more or less clandestinely to support the dollar and suppress interest rates and precious metals prices.

Lawrence Summers, who followed Rubin as treasury secretary, was an expert in gold's influence on financial markets. Previously, as a professor at Harvard University, Summers co-authored an academic study titled "Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard," (see Footnote 1 below) which concluded that in a free market gold prices move inversely to real interest rates, and, conversely, if gold prices are "fixed," then interest rates can be maintained at lower levels than would be the case in a free market. This was the economic theory behind the "strong dollar policy."

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan understood Summers' research when he remarked at a 1993 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee:

"I was raising the question on the side with Governor Mullins of what would happen if the Treasury sold a little gold in this market. There's an interesting question here because if the gold price broke in that context, the thermometer would not be just a measuring tool. It would basically affect the underlying psychology." (See Footnote 2 below.)

GATA has collected reams of evidence that Western central bank gold has long been mobilized and surreptitiously dishoarded to rig the gold market and influence related markets and that this rigging has drawn upon the U.S. gold reserves.

President Obama has called for greater transparency in both the federal government and the financial markets. In pursuit of such transparency GATA has made Freedom of Information Act requests to the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department for a candid accounting of their involvement in the gold market, particularly in regard to gold swaps. In a reply to GATA's lawyers dated September 17, 2009, Fed Governor Kevin M. Warsh acknowledged that the Federal Reserve has gold swap agreements with foreign banks but insisted that such documents remain secret. (See Footnote 3 below.)

As a result, last December GATA sued the Federal Reserve in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, seeking access to the Federal Reserve's withheld records of gold swaps.

Understanding that the manipulation of the price of gold is profoundly important to all markets and the American public, on January 31, 2008, GATA placed a full-page color advertisement in The Wall Street Journal at a cost of $264,000. (See Footnote 4 below.) GATA's ad warned, "This manipulation has been a primary cause of the catastrophic excesses in the markets that now threaten the whole world." What GATA warned against has come to pass.

GATA has long implicated the New York Commodities Exchange (Comex) as being a mechanism by which gold and silver price suppression is implemented. The smoking gun is the excessive concentration of bullion bank positions in the gold and silver futures markets. This concentration enables market manipulation -- just as market concentration was the justification offered by the CFTC in 1980 when it acted against the Hunt Brothers in the silver market.

The weekly commitment of traders report documents the total net short position of commercial traders in the commodity markets. The monthly bank participation reports disclose the holdings of U.S. banks in various markets. In a letter to GATA dated February 19, 2009, Laura Gardy, a CFTC legal assistant, wrote, "The commission determined that where the number of banks in each reporting category is particularly small, fewer than four banks, there exists the potential to extrapolate both the identity of individual banks and the banks' positions. As a result, as of December 2009 the CFTC no longer names the number of banks when it is less than four."

The CFTC has been investigating possible manipulation of the silver market for more than a year, so this reporting change is disturbing to us, as it reduces transparency and the ability to uncover market manipulation.

The CFTC's own reports of November 2009 show that just two U.S. banks held 43 percent of the commercial net short position in gold and 68 percent of the commercial net short position in silver. In gold, these two banks were short 123,331 contracts but long only 523 contracts, and in silver they were short 41,318 contracts and long only 1,426 contracts. How improbable is it that these two banks attract most of the investors who want only to sell short? (See Footnote 5 below.)

It has been possible to extrapolate that the two banks that hold these large manipulative short positions on the Comex are JPMorgan Chase and HSBC because of their huge positions in the OTC derivatives market, whose regulator, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, does not provide anonymity when it publishes market data. 6 In the first quarter 2009 OCC derivatives report, JPMorgan Chase and HSBC held more than 95 percent of the gold and precious metals derivatives of all U.S. banks, with a combined notional value of $120 billion. This concentration dwarfs the concentration in the gold and silver futures markets and should raise great concern about the lack of position limits on the Comex.

It is also disturbing to us that HSBC is the custodian for the major gold exchange-traded fund, GLD, and that JPMorgan Chase is the custodian for the major silver exchange-traded fund, SLV. It is a significant material omission to fail to disclose to GLD and SLV investors that the custodian banks of the two exchange-traded funds have an interest in falling prices in the futures and derivatives markets.

Detailed daily monitoring of gold trading reveals these patterns:

1. In recent years gold price suppression has been apparent from the near-complete failure of the gold price to rise more than 2 percent per day on the Comex (what GATA calls the 2 Percent Rule) while there is no corresponding restriction on days when the gold price is falling.

2. At option expiry gold almost always falls to a point where a large number of call options have been written, nullifying the value of the options. Typically, the price rallies immediately after option expiration.

3. The gold price consistently falls at 3 a.m. New York time when the gold cartel’s traders report to work in London, and again following the PM gold price fix, when physical market pricing has concluded for the day, and in the access market following the Comex close.

No other market trades so repetitively.

GATA has evidence that there are enormous physical short positions in the gold and silver markets that cannot be covered. Because of the decades-long interference with the gold market, we estimate that the free-market price of gold is multiples of the current price. Growing stress caused by burgeoning physical bullion demand is threatening to lead to a price explosion, which will restore to the market the balance that regulation has failed to maintain. In our view, the Comex paper market will become dysfunctional, with "force majeure" having to be declared as the concentrated shorts are unable to deliver on their obligations.

We urge the CFTC to report fully and candidly on these markets and take appropriate action.

Sincerely,

WILLIAM J. MUPRHY III, Chairman
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

... Footnotes:

1. "Gibson's Paradox Revisited: Professor Summers Analyzes Gold Prices" by Reginald H. Howe. http://www.goldensextant.com/

2. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19930518meeting.p...

3. http://www.gata.org/files/GATAFedResponse-09-17-2009.pdf

4. http://www.gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

5. http://www.cftc.gov/dea/bank/deanov09f.htm

6. http://www.gata.org/node/7307

 

h/t Jeff

Tyler Durden

Joe Stiglitz Slaps The Invisible Hand

Love him or hate him (and based on some recent appearances, notably side by side Hugh Hendry, he hasn't left much room for amorous intentions), Joe Stiglitz once again takes center stage, this time in this appearance at the Commenwealth Club, in which he discusses various things (among which are his grading of Obama, which compared to Dubya' administration, he gives an A+, and since this is roughly in line with where the rating agencies rate the US, it should raise all sorts of red flags). One of the key topics of discussion is his claim that efficient markets are a myth, and that Adam Smith's "invisible hand" appears as such because it was never truly there. Joe's bashing of economists with their hollow goal-seeked theories is one thing we can certainly agree with, and as to the market being propped by visible hands and other means, well, that is beyond the scope of this post (unless Chairman Shalom decides to grace the comment stream with his presence).

"The theories that said that markets work perfectly were all based on very simplistic models of perfect competition and perfect information. My own work we show that the reason that when there is asymmetric information, the reason that the invisible hand often seemed invisible, was that it wasn't there. And I don't think today anybody would claim that the pursuit of self-interest by bankers, which is sometimes called greed [don't tell the screenplay writer for Wall Street] has led to the well-being of all of society. And yet this was the central notion taught in almost every graduate school in the country."

So there you have it - generations of economists brought up on flawed concepts, eagerly and blindly perpetuating the flaws with each new generation (and charging $50k a year in the process). Yet the notable issue here is, assuming one agrees with Stiglitz, that markets are imperfect, and benefit banks, precisely because banks, due to their unprecedented size and trading monopoly, now have unparalleled asymmetric information access, thereby cementing their position as the most lucrative establishments in the history of capitalism, which coupled with a government's unwillingness to touch these firms for fear of an imaginary Nuclear Holocaust, will likely persist as such until the onset of the real WWIII.

Once again we repeat what we have been saying on so many occasions before: banks, and here we envision Goldman Sachs, are now monopolistic institutions, whose existence leads to nothing less than their own incremental growth until such time as all competition is stifled and the firm iteslef implodes like a supernova. In the meantime, the management team (and equityholders if they are lucky to be repeatedly bailed out any time the firm's VaR models end up being horrendously wrong, see the following interview by Kathryn Welling with Jim Rickards) gets richer and richer, even as market participants (doomed from the beginning incipient retail and institutional competitors to the monopolist), and taxpayers (unwitting providers of bailout capital) just get poorer and poorer, until the inevitable revolution restores the status quo. As always - we request the attention of Christine Varney, and the entire anti-trust arm of the US government, in claiming that Goldman Sachs has to be dismantled forcefully (as it will not happen voluntarily) before the societal implications of Goldman's size become a destabilizing factor and potentially lead to war: civil or otherwise. In the meantime, Goldman's warehousing of, and trading on, "asymmetric" information will continue, and be a persistent ridicule to wooden economists, who are still stuck with 18th century concepts of reality.

Relevant Stiglitz clip below, and the entire hour + long program can be found here. (we recommend watching the full thing, as some rather good ideas are presented)

 

Now that the market is fully back to its usual melt-up gimmicks, when fundamentals do not matter in the least, and the only potential stock drivers are technicals, which for the market dominating algos typically reduce to such simplistic signals as stock price momentum (and reversion) and short interest as a % of share float, we present our summary of the worst of the worst. The following 40 companies are those names (among the Russell 2000) that have underperformed the market either by a little or a lot, now that the S&P is flat for the year, and which still carry a substantial short interest as a % of the total float (with a 20% of float short minimum). As the charts below demonstrate, one would be hard pressed to find worse companies out there (for pure equity stock pickers; credit analysts would be looking at a completely different set of fundamentals, but as we have repeatedly said fundamentals don't matter in this market, except the market maker number 1's Z.1, H.4.1 and H.3 statements). Which, thanks to bizarro logic, means that a portfolio constructed of these 40 companies will most certainly outperform the broader market by a large percentage. Brownie points if you pick out those companies in this list which have a Neutral or Sell rating by Goldman Sachs - you can bet your bottom FRN that Goldman's prop desk is currently accumulating that particular POS in anticipation of a honestly formulated upgrade by Goldman's sell side time, and the ensuing massive short squeeze rip.

As one can see, the average selection EV/EBITDA is nearly a clot-inducing 19x. And that's excluding the numerous companies that are NM (negative EBITDA). TEVs have a ceiling of roughly $1-2 billion, meaning the companies are small enough for hedge funds to be doing just this kind of short squeeze-in-waiting analysis. One caveat, as quite a few of the stocks have already bounced substantially from their 52 week lows (PALM being a notable exception), despite a deplorable performance YTD, the upside may be at least marginally capped on technicals.

Source: CapitalIQ

Is creating a portfolio out of these 40 names a surefire way to become a Goldmanaire in no time? Under normal circumstances one would have been crucified by the investment community when presenting short squeezes as a catalyst to upside, then again our market is one which takes "normal circumstances" and proceeds to fill it up with KY. This bears repeating: only an idiot would create a portfolio using pure technicals as catalytic events (such as the one above). Then again, keep in mind that one now competes not against human traders, but computers, which are programmed not by financially educated, fundamental-analysis trained analysts, but rather by Ph.D's who swear up and down by databases full of "highly correlating" data and nothing else. As such, positioning for a continued equity melt up will likely mean that the worst will once again become first, as the Fed continues to fornicate with any market rationale, logic and discipline. And with the US itself going all in on a Government Sponsored Fallacy, individual investors may be wise to follow suit, and just hold their collective noses and do the dumbest thing imaginable...

And, for the benefit of those who take any market analysis seriously, we urge a very close rereading of Seth Klarman's financial crisis market lessons...over and over.

The appearance of the Chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel, Elizabeth Warren, on Charlie Rose is a must watch. In addition to an in depth discussion of the the consumer protection agency, which despite all valiant attempts to the contrary, will likely end up under the Fed's jurisdiction, thereby making the world's most powerful cabal even more powerful, Warren touches on a variety of other issues, including the sovereign debt situation, commercial real estate, and the one concept at the heart of it all: the lack of impairments by stockholders (and certainly by debtholders) in what was a bankrupt financial industry. The world would not have ended had banks been forced to readjust their balance sheets: the outcome would have been far simpler - all those who had their collective net wealth associated with the balance sheets, and specifically the equity tranche, of firms like Goldman, JPM, Citi, BofA and Wells would have been wiped out. But why do that when not just they, but the entire government were willing to make it seems that a balance sheet reorganization is equivalent to liquidation. Once again, those at the top were more than happy to take advantage of the stupidity of the morts (whose great desire to be distracted by stupidity like primetime TV is well known to the financial-media complex) and in the process make themselves even richer, and more powerful. Now, we expect yet another blogger to come out with yet another book discussing this and every other deadbeaten horse issue out there. And with time amoral hazard itself will slowly become illegal, as everything, and we mean everything, succumbs to the decision making of the Federal Reserve's Politbureau. In the meantime nothing will change until democracy itself is reignited in this country.

Warren's observations on Greece and Goldman's involvement in creating Europe's Enron.

CHARLIE ROSE: We are now looking at the situation in Greece where there is risk of default on debt.  And what’s come into play  are private equity firms looking how they get engaged and also betting on  Euro, and credit default swaps have risen their presence again.

And the whole notion of bookkeeping, in effect.

CHARLIE ROSE:  Whether certain firms -- the charge is certain firms help them cover up the amount of debt they had. 

ELIZABETH WARREN:  Enron taught us a few years back, you remember, in fact that the books are dirty, that there is one set of books put out in front for everyone to see, but there are effectively off the book transactions that nobody can see that reflect the real risks that your enterprise has taken. 

And we’ve gone straight from Enron to Greece, with lots of stops in between for large financial institutions. 

But what it really goes back to is how much honesty, how much transparency are we going to insist on in the financial system?  Everyone wants to make this stuff really hard.  It’s about credit default swaps and derivative squares, and so on.  No, it really is about things like transparency and honesty. 

On Too Big To Fail:

CHARLIE ROSE:  What else do you want to see in regulatory, in a bill that’s supposedly looks at how we got where we are in the economic crises and the recession that we experienced and to make new rules and regulations that will prevent it from happening again? 

ELIZABETH WARREN:  It’s about the other end of the spectrum.  We started at families.  The other end is "too big to fail." 

Until we build a chapter 11 system, a resolution authority system, whatever we want to call this, until we build the part of the legal structure that permits us as a people to say with real credibility behind it, "credibility" is the underlying word here -- I don’t care what your business is.  I don’t care how big you are, I don’t care how intertwined you are.  If you make bad enough decisions, you can be liquidated.  It’s over. 

On wiping out shareholders in the bankrupt institutions (and yes, that includes Goldman Sachs):

ELIZABETH WARREN: There’s a key part to this on bailing out the banks.  Here’s what’s always driven me crazy about this from the beginning.  I understand financing that comes in once a business is in distress.  We call it post-petition financing in the bankruptcy world. 

The price for that is that equity gets wiped out, top management loses their jobs, and the old debt takes a hair cut of some proportion.  To come in and rescue under those circumstances, I get it, that happens.  That’s what bankruptcy’s about.  That says the participants in the old one don’t get it. 

What we did when we rescued these banks is that we left the shareholders intact, we left their top management intact, we paid their debt in full.  We came in --

CHARLIE ROSE:  So we, the U.S. government -- in your judgment -- for good motivation mostly to save the economy from collapsing, made a bad deal. 

ELIZABETH WARREN:  We were far too generous. 

CHARLIE ROSE:  That’s a bad deal, isn’t it? 

ELIZABETH WARREN:  With those who made --

CHARLIE ROSE:  So you could have saved the economy without going to the extent in making the deal you did? 

ELIZABETH WARREN:  I think you could have. 

CHARLIE ROSE:  And within the context of the crisis at the moment and working around the clock -- 

ELIZABETH WARREN:  Come on.  Bankruptcy lawyers work around the clock all the time...We do it with lots of financial institutions. 

Wiping out shareholders who were the people who invested and who had profited from all of the mistakes that these companies had made for years and years and years before that, that’s not hard.  That’s not rocket science.  That’s just a difference on who gets to sit at the table and who gets to walk away with money. 

I’m sorry.  That one is not an emergency situation. 

And on Commercial Real Estate (yes, CNBC, it has not gone away just because nobody is talking about it):

CHARLIE ROSE:  Commercial real estate, what are we looking at. 

ELIZABETH WARREN:  Oh golly -- 2,988 banks that by the terms of their own regulators are too concentrated in commercial real estate.  These are the medium size banks.  By the end of this year, half of all commercial real estate loans will be underwater, and they are coming in ‘11, ‘12 and ‘13. 

The reason this is such a bad problem anyway -- think about that, nearly 3,000 banks out of a total of 8,000 -- it’s the very banks that do  small business lending who are about to get socked in the nose on real estate, commercial real estate losses. 

CHARLIE ROSE:  So we’ll see banks going under because they’ve got too many loans out there are not being repaid? 

ELIZABETH WARREN:  We’re seeing banks that don’t want to lend because they see every dollar that comes in the door and say "I’ve got to hold on to it to try to fill my commercial real estate hole or else I will be gone." 

And lastly, on the imminence of the double dip:

CHARLIE ROSE:  Joe Stiglitz, who you know who was here last night, basically says he fears we’ll see a double dip recession, so the economy has to do with inventory and the end of the stimulus and a whole range of issues, unemployment staying where it is. 

Do you have that kind of, even though you’re a lawyer and not an economist, fear about this economy? 

ELIZABETH WARREN:  I am afraid.  I’m afraid because of what I see in the real economy.  I’m afraid because I don’t see books that are clean, balance sheets that have been cleaned up.  I’m afraid because in October of 2008, Secretary Paulson came to the American people and he said the problem is toxic assets on the books of the banks, and they’re still there. 

CHARLIE ROSE:  Although they’re worth more than they were. 

ELIZABETH WARREN:  Lucky us. 
   
I’m afraid because Secretary Paulson said there’s too much concentration in the banking industry, and there’s even more concentration today than there was --

CHARLIE ROSE:  So bigness is bad? 

ELIZABETH WARREN:  It’s not that bigness is bad, it’s that we’ve got concentrated risk and that’s what creates too big to fail, and that’s creating distortions throughout our economy. 

We haven’t yet put our feet on solid ground and begin -- begun to rebuild an economy we can believe in. 

CHARLIE ROSE:  I hear you as saying that the mindset of the people making the economic decisions in Washington, Larry Summers, Tim Geithner, Christina Romer, and others, they look at the world through the wrong experience.  You might want to include Christine not in that, but certainly Summers and Geithner. 

Do you think their experience has been too connected to the point of view that does not allow them to make the optimal decision?  I tried to make that as easy as I could. 

ELIZABETH WARREN:  I think we have different worldviews. 

CHARLIE ROSE:  You and them? 

ELIZABETH WARREN:  Yes.  I just don’t think we see the world the same way. 

CHARLIE ROSE:  And so therefore they shouldn’t be in place.

ELIZABETH WARREN:  Well, I’m going to say it differently.  I think that Summers and Geithner are smart.  I think they’re honorable.  I think they approach the economy and the world through the largest institutions.  And they see the world from a top-down perspective. 

I spent 25 years somewhere else. 

CHARLIE ROSE:  Academia? 

ELIZABETH WARREN:  No, come on.  Summers and I started in the same place. 

CHARLIE ROSE:  I know.

ELIZABETH WARREN:  I’ve spent my time and my research on economic death and rebirth.  And much of that was about what happened to America’s middle class, how we have hollowed out America’s middle class.  It will not save us if a handful of Wall Street banks prosper and the rest of America fails. 

Our focus, our energy, our heart has to be on the rest of America. 

Full Charlie Rose clip after the jump.

h/t Richard

Compliments of reader Chindit13, we present to you this religiously monetary parable on how to keep your sanity under the modern version of "efficient" markets. For full effect, we also recommend a CDS-unhedged shot of ouzo, a triple rereading of Seth Klarman's lessons promptly forgotten, and two pills of 50 mg Amoralhazardine, followed by a visit to your central banker in the morning (just to be safe).

 

 


As QE1 passes below the horizon, most assuredly QE2 is undergoing the last polishing of the brass and will be setting sail as soon as Mrs. Bernanke cracks the champagne across the bow.  Abby Joseph Cohen, your prince has come!

Actually, Ben is far more than a prince.  He is more than a king.  He is a savior!  He himself believes this, as in one of his gospels, which someday will be held in the same esteem as the Bible, Koran, Bhagavad Gita or Book of Moroni, Ben stated:  "We saved the world".  (Gods are known to refer to themselves in the plural.)

An old god told a man to build an ark to save the world.  Ben knows a helicopter does the job much faster, and if need be one can always use it to escape the infidels and apostates.

Another bearded one from long ago, a piker some people call savior, merely made a few fish and loaves appear out of nowhere.  So what's that worth?  Even with inflation probably no more than a few hundred dollars.

Ben has made at least two trillion dollars of his own, not to mention the trillions he has added to the equity market, the quadrillions he has added to Hamptons' real estate values, and the quintillions he has added to the accounts of the partners at Goldman Sachs.

Who wants smelly old fish in the desert when one can have Beluga caviar on Nantucket?

And the best various and sundry other false gods can do is make lots of footprints or drop more teeth than a great white shark, make milk drip from a statue, or father way too many kids.  Parlor tricks!

One savior forgives sins.  Ben forgives debts. We all know which one carries more value.

One savior says those who err must atone and repent.  Ben says those who err should be rewarded and are welcome to do it again.

One savior tossed the gamblers out of the house of worship.  Ben has restored the gamblers to their rightful place, at the center of the Universe.

One magic man turned straw into gold.  Ben turned gold into tungsten.

One savior says we should face Mecca five times a day.  Ben calls 85 Broad twenty times a day.  Who gets more done?

One savior asks us to take Sunday off.  Ben says Sunday night is sacred worktime, especially in the S&P futures.

One book says it is easier to pass a camel through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to get into the Kingdom of heaven.  The Beige Book says it is easier for Ron Paul to get into the Fed's archives than for a bear to get into the Hamptons.

Even the Greeks have given up their false gods of Zeus and Apollo and accepted the sacramental healing power of supplemental debt.  The faithful cheered 3x (oversubscribed) and partook of the body.

Ben, when our spirits were deflated you inflated us!  When our cups were empty you filled them to overflowing.  When we were on the verge of being contrite, you led us back unto temptation!  Show us the way to Dow 36000!

Assets to ashes or debts to dust?  Ben has chosen.


"let he who is without sin....pay for everyone else's"

 

Today, the market spiked in the last hour of trading after it was announced that total consumer credit increased for the first time in a year (not all credit, mind you, just car loans; consumers are still eagerly paying down their credit cards). And who was the source for this generosity you may ask? Why, the US Government of course. Not only that, but Non-Seasonally Adjusted Consumer credit was actually down by $4 billion. But let the government have its smoothing fun. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, consumer credit has declined by $108 billion in the past 12 months. What may be surprising, is that were one to strip away the contribution from the Federal Government of $78 billion, the decline would have been almost double, or $187 billion. Furthermore, in January, NSA consumer credit would have declined by $14 billion had it not been for the... wait for it... Federal Government, which sourced $10.4 billion in new consumer credit. So here is what happens in case you haven't figured it out already: the government takes taxpayer money, and lends it out to all sorts of destitutes at zero % interest, who have to keep up with the Joneses at all costs, and even though can not afford to put down any equity, must buy a new car every 6 months (even though they have likely not made a mortgage payment in about a year... not to worry, Uncle Sam is footing that too via the Federal Reserve and Fannie and Freddie), and when the news of the government's generosity hits the market, and the spin is that Americans are again confident enough to borrow, the few SPARC machines left trading do whatever Liberty 33 tells them to, and bump up the total capitalization of the market by about $20 billion, putting money straight into the pockets of Goldman Sachs and other recent bailoutees, who without doubt deserved a $70 billion bonus season in 2009. And now you know where your money goes to.

It's Friday after the close - time for the government to sneak one past traders, who are already on their fifth moqito. And sure enough, the bomb today comes from the Congressional Budget Office:

The CBO, in an annual analysis of the White House budget proposal, said today that under Obama’s plan deficits would never shrink below 4 percent of the economy between now and 2020. The cumulative deficits would total $9.76 trillion, and debt held by the public would amount to 90 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product by 2020, the CBO said.

And guess what: this is a huge deterioration from the previous budget deficit presented just a month ago:

Those figures are all higher than the administration estimated last month when it said its budget would cut the deficit to as low as 3.6 percent of GDP, with total shortfalls over 10 years totaling $8.5 trillion. The publicly held debt would grow to 77 percent of GDP in 2020, under the administration’s estimate.

In other words, the CBO has just confirmed that America has, at best, 10 years before it is officially bankrupt. That's about 9 years of multi-trillion bonuses for Goldman Sachs. Congratulations fellas.

Here is how the budget deficit will look like pre and post the revision.

Full letter from the CBO below, which should prompt China, Japan and the UK, to hire Akin Gump immediately create a creditor committee in advance of America's upcoming bankruptcy post haste. Luckily, neither will this happen, nor will anyone remember any of this news by Monday when the machines will be back in charge gunning the Dow to its new home, north of 36,000.

 

The following very interesting analysis from Goldman focuses on an issue long-discussed on Zero Hedge and elsewhere, namely what happens when those millions in unemployed currently collecting unemployment insurance, finally start to roll off extended and emergency benefits, as terminal benefit exhaustion sets in, even with ongoing governmental unemployment stimulus programs. Goldman's estimate: approximately 400,000 people will no longer have the backdrop of so-called  "government jobs" in which workers receive on average $1,200 a month for doing nothing. "If the rate of exhaustion continues at the current pace, this implies over 400,000 workers will exhaust their benefits in some months, even if Congress continues to extend the current, more generous, unemployment program." What this means for the economy is, obviously, nothing good: "Assuming something on the order of 400,000 exhaustions per month, at an average benefit of $1200 per month, this implies roughly $0.5 billion in lost monthly compensation compared with a scenario in which there are no exhaustions.  If the relationship between exhaustions and initial claims 16 to 17 months prior (the maximum benefit period in most states) holds constant, the pace of exhaustions is likely to stay elevated for several months, implying several billion dollars in cumulative lost compensation." Couple this with front-loaded tax refunds, also previously discussed on Zero Hedge, and the "consumer-driven" economy in next few months is sure to see a rather substantial shakedown. Absent a dramatic increase in (c)overt Obama unemployment stimulus, is the extend-and-pretend phase of the bear market rally about to end?

From Goldman Sachs:

Expanded unemployment benefits expired on Monday, after the Senate failed to enact legislation to renew them and several other programs.  These have since been reinstated, but the brief expiration may still result in a temporary cessation of benefits to roughly 250,000 unemployed this week.  We do not expect this have a significant effect on incomes, as the effect will be temporary. It should also not have an important effect on weekly jobless claims reports, as the affected benefits are not included in the regular continued claims data.

Aside from the short-term disruption, an increasing number of individuals will face an end to benefits over the next several months even with continued renewal of the current emergency benefits by Congress.  More than 400,000 jobless workers could run down their federal benefits each month over the next several months, even assuming that Congress continues to renew the expanded benefit period now in place.  It is possible that Congress could lengthen the maximum benefit period yet again, but the political climate is not as conducive to additional expansions as it had been last year.  The result is likely to be a greater share of unemployed workers not receiving unemployment compensation.

Jobless Benefits: Brief Disruption Now, Bigger Issues Ahead

Unemployment benefits were back in the news this week, after the Senate failed to come to agreement on a short term extension of the more generous benefit period Congress enacted in 2008 and expanded in 2009. The result was a short term disruption to benefits, but one that should be temporary. However, policymakers face a longer term issue, as the number of current recipients who will lose benefits over the next several months is likely to climb substantially, with benefit exhaustions potentially approaching 500,000 in some months.  In previous instances in 2008 and 2009 which the number of individuals facing benefit exhaustions has threatened to rise substantially, Congress has intervened by adding additional weeks to the maximum benefit period.  But with the maximum benefit approaching two years and waning support for additional stimulus spending in Congress, it isn’t clear whether another extension is in the cards.

The disruption to benefit payments caused by the legislative snag in the Senate will be temporary.  Something like 250,000 individuals may have temporarily lost benefits this week as a result of the expiration of expanded unemployment benefits at the end of February.  However, this is far short of what some reports had implied, namely that expanded benefits had ceased entirely. Instead, it was only those workers who had exhausted a benefit “tier” the prior week who were unable to start their next tier, and thus unable to collect additional benefits (see chart below). The effect on income should be relatively minor, at less than $100 million on a national basis, and retroactive reinstatement should make up most of that revenue in any case.  

 

 

More workers are moving from regular benefits into emergency benefits.  The chart above illustrates this process.  Workers who qualify for jobless benefits begin by receiving 26 weeks of standard unemployment benefits. They then move into the first of four tiers of emergency benefits, described at the bottom of the exhibit above. The third tier is generally available to states with an unemployment rate of more than 6%, so that most states are currently eligible. The fourth tier is available to states with an unemployment rate above 8.5%, which applies to a more limited group of states.  Once jobless workers move through the tiers for which they are eligible, they usually move to state extended benefit programs, which once again depend on the unemployment rate in a given state and last an additional 20 weeks. In all, this means a laid off employee can receive benefits for 99 weeks, or almost two years, after losing employment. The result is that total uninsurance compensation rolls have risen significantly, even while regular continued claims have fallen (see chart below; note that Tier IV has few beneficiaries and isn't visible on the chart).

 

 

Most workers in latter tiers of the benefit structure are exhausting their benefits….  The chart below illustrates the exhaustion rate in each tier, that is the number of workers who collect all of their payments without finding work, as a share of total initial claims in each segment.  Note that Tier III and Tier IV have been available for only three months, and thus have just begun to see exhaustions (there is only one data point for Tier III, shown below, and the one point for Tier IV isn’t meaningful).   However, in absolute terms the numbers are beginning to mount. For instance, over 100,000 workers exhausted their Tier III benefits last month, and for some of them this will be the end of unemployment compensation (a few will move to Tier IV benefits, and others will move onto state emergency benefits for a few months before completely exhausting their eligibility)  If the rate of exhaustion continues at the current pace, this implies over 400,000 workers will exhaust their benefits in some months, even if Congress continues to extend the current, more generous, unemployment program.

 

…Because the duration of unemployment has lengthened significantly.  The share of the unemployed who have been without a job for more than 27 weeks (i.e., roughly the duration of regular unemployment benefits) has increased significantly, and as of January stood at a record high 41.2% of the total unemployed population, as seen in the chart below. 

 

 

…Because the duration of unemployment has lengthened significantly.  The share of the unemployed who have been without a job for more than 27 weeks (i.e., roughly the duration of regular unemployment benefits) has increased significantly, and as of January stood at a record high 41.2% of the total unemployed population, as seen in the chart below. 

 

 

As benefits expire, unemployed workers will begin to seek work more aggressively….  A study by Alan B. Krueger and Andreas Muller indicates that an unemployed worker can spend as little as 20 minutes per day looking for work during the middle of the UI benefit period, but increases this to more than 70 minutes per day when the benefit is about to expire (see Krueger and Muller, “Job Search and Unemployment Insurance: New Evidence from Time Use Data,” IZA Discussion Paper No. 3667, August 2008).  Because the benefit period has been expanded three times  since 2008, this effect may be more pronounced today than during more normal periods.  For instance, another study has found that unemployment spells have an elasticity of 0.16, implying that the current policy, which has extended benefits from 26 weeks to up to 99 weeks has increased the average duration of unemployment spells by up to 12 weeks (see Lawrence F. Katz and Bruce D. Meyer, “The Impact of the Potential Duration of Unemployment Benefits on the Duration of Unemployment,” NBER Working Paper 2741, July 1990). While this is probably an extreme interpretation of their results, given that the average duration of unemployment in January was 30 weeks, it does stand to reason that generous unemployment benefits may be one factor in the rising average duration of unemployment.
 
...But the lack of benefits will cut into their incomes until they find work.    Assuming something on the order of 400,000 exhaustions per month, at an average benefit of $1200 per month, this implies roughly $0.5 billion in lost monthly compensation compared with a scenario in which there are no exhaustions.  If the relationship between exhaustions and initial claims 16 to 17 months prior (the maximum benefit period in most states) holds constant, the pace of exhaustions is likely to stay elevated for several months, implying several billion dollars in cumulative lost compensation.

Congress may come under pressure to expand the benefit period once again.   Of course, this assumes that Congress will not add additional weeks to the benefit period once more, as they did in July and November 2008, and again in November 2009.   It is certainly possible that they will extend the benefit period again, but as fiscal considerations become more important, further expansions become more difficult. That said, at a minimum we expect Congress to continue renewing the current maximum benefit period through 2012, given that previous expanded benefits have been renewed for at least a year after the unemployment rate peaks.  Indeed, we expect unemployment and related health benefits to constitute the bulk of the additional stimulus spending we expect Congress to approve.

Tyler Durden

Frontrunning: March 5

  • Fannie, Freddie may ask banks to eat $21 billion of sour loans (Bloomberg)
  • Tresuries tumble after snow posturing ends up being great strawman (Bloomberg)
  • No snow issues here - striking greek workers shut down transport, try to storm parliament (Bloomberg)
  • French debt coming under investor scrutiny (Reuters)
  • Singapore's GIC becomes UBS' biggest shareholder (Bloomberg)
  • Market forecast- confusing (Barron's)
  • How much does the national debt matter? (Forbes)
  • Democracy under attack? (Top Down Investing)
  • UK would still be in recession without 200 billion pound cash injection (Telegraph)
  • Equity firms cheer staple finance return (WSJ)
  • 2009 tax year oddities (Weathersealed)
  • A tale of two great depressions (IBD)
  • Goldman Sachs eyes servers with batteries (Data Center Knowledge)
  • Singapore planning to recreate Greenwich as it creates hedge fund park in Nepal Hill (Bloomberg)
  • Picture of the day:

 

The Federal Reserve's assets were at $2.26 trillion as of March 3, flat sequentially. 

  • Securities held outright: $1,971 billion (an increase of $60 billion MoM, resulting from $57 billion increase in MBS and $3 billion in Agency Debt), or a $6 billion decrease sequentially. 
  • The fed has completed $169.1 billion of $175 billion in the agency MBS program: there is just 3% of Agency dry powder remaining (no new purchases in the week ending March 3). The Fed has completed $1.22 trillion of its $1.25 trillion MBS debt purchase program, or 98%, through March 3 (including the $10 billion announced today). There is now just $35 billion left in Quantitative Easing capacity.
  • Net borrowings: unchanged at $103 billion from the prior fortnight.
  • Float, liquidity swaps, Maiden Lane and other assets: a $1 billion decline sequentially to $190 billion. The CPFF program was at $7.7 billion. FX liquidity swaps are now at zero. Maiden Lane I and Maiden Lane II increased and were $27.2 and $15.6 billion, while Maiden Lane III came flat at $22.4 billion.

Custody foreign securities holdings increased by $4.4 billion sequentially to $2,969 billion.

The maturity distribution change of Fed assets from the prior week is shown below. Some $6 billion in sub 15 days USTs and Reverse Repos matured, offset by some Agency rolls into this dated category. Other assets maturing up to a year increased by about $8 billion, consisting mostly of Bills rolling closer. The net decline in assets across the entire curve was $6 billion.

The roll off of Quantitative Easing for MBS/Agencies can be seen below. The Fed's ability to artificially keep mortgage rates low is almost over.

And since everyone is concerned about the impact of the end of QE, here is Goldman Sachs to soothe everyone's nerves, by hoping readers believe that as a result of the artifical floow in the MBS market being lifted, the impact will be at most 10 basis point (that's right 10 bps. At least Goldman doesn't see a tightening in rates as a result).

In this Daily Comment we present a statistical analysis suggesting that the impact of the Fed’s asset purchase on mortgage rates has come mostly via the stock of announced MBS purchases rather than the flow of actual purchases. Our estimates suggest a total effect of around 80 basis points (bp), of which 70bp is due to the announced stock of purchases and 10bp to the week-to-week flow of purchases. Taken at face value, our results imply that mortgage rates should only rise by around 10bp when the Fed stops buying MBS over the next few weeks, although the uncertainty remains significant

Many market participants worry that the end of the Federal Reserve’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchases in March will push up mortgage rates substantially.  One popular approach for gauging the likely effect is to estimate the impact of the Fed’s purchase program via the deviation of the 30-year fixed mortgage rate from its normal relationship with the 10-year Treasury yield.  As shown in the chart below, mortgage rates are currently about 70bp lower than would be expected based on the current 10-year Treasury yield.  (The 30-year mortgage rate is typically compared with the 10-year rather than 30-year Treasury yield because the embedded prepayment option reduces the duration of mortgages compared with Treasuries of equal maturity.)  Thus, some analysts have argued that mortgage rates could rise by 70bp once the Fed stops buying MBS.

 


This approach, however, ignores the distinction between the announced stock of Fed purchases and the flow of actual Fed purchases. If markets are forward-looking and therefore discount the Fed’s eventual demand for assets, rates should depend on the announced stock of purchases. This implies that the entire effect of the Fed’s purchase program should have occurred when it was announced in November 2008 and expanded in mid-March 2009. Only to the extent that markets are imperfect should the mortgage rate respond to actual Fed purchases. The distinction between stocks and flows becomes critical when the Fed stops purchasing MBS but does not change its announced MBS holdings – i.e. what we expect to happen in March.

 
To asses the outlook for mortgage rates after the Fed stops buying, we construct simple models to estimate the effect of the Fed program on the mortgage rate. It is important to note that it is difficult to be confident in the results of this exercise, as we have few observations and many other factors have affected mortgage rates at the same time. Still, we believe that our results provide a useful benchmark for what might happen to mortgage rates in coming months.

 

Our model explains the 30-year Freddie Mac primary market fixed mortgage rate (or its spread over 10-year Treasuries) using the stock of announced purchases, the weekly flow of actual MBS purchases, and a number of macroeconomic control variables. The stock of announced MBS purchaseswas initially set at $500bn on November 25, 2008 and then raised to $1.25tr on March 18, 2009. The Fed started purchasing MBS in January 2009; the purchase rate peaked in March 2009 at $33bn per week and has slowed to $11bn per week since then, averaging about $20bn per week during this period. We also include a measure of the corporate Baa yield because we want to allow for changes in overall attitudes to risk that may or may not be related to the Fed’s purchases. Furthermore, we include cyclical indicators such as the ISM manufacturing index, changes in nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. Using a weekly sample from 2007 to the present, we arrive at the following results (see table below):

* First, we consider the effect of the purchase program on the spread between 30-year fixed rate mortgages and 10-year Treasuries, controlling for overall credit spreads as measured by the Baa spread over Treasuries. We estimate that the total effect of the purchase program on the current mortgage/Treasury spread is 70bp; of this, 58bp is due to the announced stock of purchases while 12bp is due to the flow of purchases (see column 1).


* Second, we consider the effect on the level of the mortgage rate, while again controlling for credit conditions by including the Baa yield. We find a total effect of 82bps on the mortgage rate; again most of the effect due to the announced stock (72bp) with the remainder (10bp) due to the flow of purchases (see column 2).

Table: Estimated Effect of the Fed MBS Purchase Program

 

The magnitude of the total effect we uncover is broadly consistent with a December 2009 speech given by Brian Sack, the head of the New York Fed’s markets group, which implies that Fed purchases have reduced the mortgage rate by about 100bp (see “The Fed’s Expanded Balance Sheet”, 2 December 2009, Remarks at the Money Marketeers of New York University). The magnitudes Sack refers to are broadly consistent with our own previous work. We have argued that Fed asset purchases of $1tr are roughly equivalent to a cut in the federal funds rate of about 100bp or, equivalently, 35bp in financial conditions (see “The Ps and Qs of Unconventional Easing”, Daily Comment, March 18, 2009). Using the weight of the long-term interest rate in the financial conditions index (55%) this effect is equivalent to roughly a 65bp drop in long-term interest (e.g. mortgage) rates for a $1tr purchase program, broadly consistent with the estimates presented above.

While we believe that the Fed’s ultimate objective is to reduce the borrowing rate that consumers actually face – i.e. the level of the primary mortgage rate used in the foregoing analysis – we test the robustness of our findings by considering two alternative measures: (1) a secondary market mortgage rate, and (2) a mortgage rate that is adjusted for the value of the prepayment option (i.e. the fact that borrowers may refinance prior to the maturity of their mortgage). For both of these measures the above conclusion – that the announced stock is the key in pushing down the mortgage rate – continues to hold and the flow effect of the purchases weakens further (not shown in the table).

One key caveat in our analysis is that we only consider the effect of the Fed MBS purchase program on the mortgage rate. We were not able to identify separately the effects of the Fed’s agency debt and Treasury purchase programs on the mortgage rate – essentially because they were announced at the same time and, in the statistical jargon, are hence highly “collinear” with the MBS purchase program. However, to the extent that the agency debt and Treasury purchase programs – which are much smaller in magnitude – had an impact on the mortgage rate, we believe that our approach should implicitly include this effect. In other words, we view our 70-80bp estimate as a reasonable gauge of the total effect of all Fed programs on the mortgage rate. The fact that we find a larger effect on the mortgage rate than on its spread over Treasuries is consistent with a modest impact of Fed purchases not just on mortgage spreads but also on Treasury yields.

In sum, we find that the stock of announced Fed purchases has been more important in pushing down mortgage rates than the flow of actual purchases. Thus, our analysis only points to a modest rise in mortgage rates of around 10bp when the Fed stops buying MBS in a few weeks. Together with the subdued outlook for MBS origination volumes in a weak housing market environment (see “The GSE at a Crossroads”, Fixed Income Monthly, February 2010), this suggests that nominal mortgage rates will remain low. However, an announcement to sell MBS – which we believe will not occur for some time to come – would likely result in a much bigger rise in mortgage rates of up to 80bp. Again, however, we emphasize that it is difficult to have a great deal of confidence in our regression results given the inherent difficulty of estimating the impact of an unprecedented policy in an environment of nearly unparalleled swings in the mortgage and broader asset markets.

Sven Jari Stehn

An early glimpse at the detailed "Volcker Rule", which is expected to be released this afternoon, indicates that not just bank holding companies are going to be targeted by the prop trading ban. The WSJ reports that "the White House's push to limit, or in some cases ban, certain risky trading activities at financial companies also would affect companies that don't own bank subsidiaries, according to a summary of proposed legislative language prepared by the administration." This probably means that life for those pesky hedge fund scapegoatees is about to get even more unpleasant. And as for trading sovereign CDS, we suggest you novate all positions promptly.

From the Wall Street Journal:

The White House initially offered few details for how the "Volcker Rule" would work. And Senate lawmakers, locked in discussions about how to rewrite financial rules, are expected to water down the Volcker Rule by giving more discretion to regulators on how best to enforce size and risk limits at banks. This would stop short of the White House's outright ban on certain activities.


The White House's detailed proposal, which is expected to be released Wednesday afternoon, suggests the administration is likely to push for tougher rules as negotiations intensify.


A summary of the White House's language details for the first time plans to bring more federal scrutiny to any "major" financial firm, even those that aren't banks, which engage in proprietary trading. These companies would face tougher capital and liquidity rules and also be forced to "provide more information to the market about their risks."


"Moreover, any financial firm that is identified for heightened supervision under the Administration's regulatory reform proposal would be subject to additional capital and quantitative limits on these activities," the White House's summary said.


This is significant because it means even if companies such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. shed their commercial banking subsidiaries, they will likely face more regulatory scrutiny.

Something tells us Wells Fargo ain't going to be doing much prop trading any time soon.

Volcker seems pretty set on preventing the continued expansion of Too Big To Fail into Too Biggest To Fail:

The White House's proposal also would ban financial companies from controlling more than 10% of the liabilities of the financial system after an acquisition. This updates an older law that restricts banks from controlling more than 10% of U.S. deposits after an acquisition. The White House's new proposal could make it much more difficult for large banks and other financial firms to grow.

And this concluding observation:

"Investors in private funds advised by banking firms must have no expectation that the banking firm would bail out the funds in times of stress," a summary of the White House's proposal said

Since all private funds are advised by banking firms in some capacity, does this mean that the fight with the hedge fund (aka prop trading) world just entered its second offensive? We will bring you the detailed Volcker plan as soon as it is available.

It's official - Goldman Sachs is the new American Idol. The firm has taken over American public interest and its airwaves (both metaphorically and soon, if Canada is any example, literally... we jest - it is well known that Goldman has very little control over CanWest programming) - after serving as ground zero for the financial system bailout, after facilitating the fudging of EU entrants' books over the past decade, after going after iconic soccer clubs, and after actually rebranding marine wildlife, the firm is now implicated as the key lender, and, after pulling liquidity at the last moment, soon to be owner, of the Sawgrass Marriott Gold Resort & Spa, which has just filed for bankruptcy. The resort, which is home to the associated TPC Sawgrass golf course (which has not filed for chapter 11, at least not yet, and also happens to be the headquarters of the PGA Tour), is where Tiger Woods decided to apologize on February 19 for having sex with "those women." We are positive that the latest reality series to come out of Hollywood brain trust "Who wants to marry a Goldmanaire" is just months away. 

More from Bloomberg:

The course is known for its iconic 17th hole. Architect Peter Dye, a member of the World Golf Hall of Fame, placed the green on an island in a small lake. It has since become a magnet for pro and weekend golfers, who hit some 120,000 balls each year into the surrounding water.


The course was ranked ninth on Golf Digest’s list of America’s 100 Greatest Public Courses for 2009-2010.


RQB Resort is the owner of the hotel and cabana club. RQB Development is the owner of the golf villas, the spa and related development rights.


“The current economic recession and associated disruption in the debt and equity capital markets have been extremely challenging for the debtors,” RQB said in court papers.

And here is the Goldman connection, which these days seems to be everywhere:

In July 2006, Goldman Sachs Commercial Mortgage Capital LP helped finance the $220.5 million purchase of the 65-acre resort in Ponte Vedra Beach by RBQ Resort and RBQ Development.


The new owners spent $30 million upgrading the resort, according to court filings. Sales rose 10 percent in the first full year. Then the economic decline reduced the number of conferences, which account for 65 percent of sales. The resort’s revenue for 2009 was $42.6 million down from $56.7 million the previous year, according to court papers.


In the third quarter of 2008, the owners announced a plan to cut costs by $4.5 million. Sales fell 25 percent in 2009, “resulting in a lack of liquidity for the resort and the inability of the debtors to pay,” the company said in court papers.


Goldman, which is owed about $192.5 million as of Jan. 10, hasn’t been paid since August. RBQ met Goldman last March and told the bankers then that they might have “liquidity issues” by August.

In June, the owners hired Perella Weinberg Partners LP to broker a solution with Goldman. In October, Goldman told the owners it wanted to foreclose.

Some more from the actual Chapter 11 filing (attached below) discussing the relationship between Sawgrass and lender Goldman, whereby it turns out the squid led the soon to be banrkrupt course along, only to screw it over in the 11th hour.

The Debtors have been open and transparent with Goldman Sachs since the Loan Agreement was executed. As part of a proactive approach, the Debtors entered into discussions with the Goldman Sachs to restructure the loan with a meeting in New York on March 16th 2009. The Debtors informed Goldman Sachs that with the economic outlook at the time and the trends in business bookings the Debtors would have liquidity issues by July/August 2009. The Debtors and Goldman Sachs discussed stabilizing the loan with an extension of the payout term by 3 to 4 years and a reduced interest rate to allow the loan to be serviced by the Resort’s operating cash flow. In reliance on Goldman Sachs’ apparent willingness to restructure the loan, the Debtors did not seek alternative financing. The Debtors were compliant with their loan obligations at the time ofthe first restructuring meeting with Goldman Sachs on March 16, 2009 and continued to be compliant until August 2009.


In order to facilitate these discussions, the Debtors asked Perella Weinberg Partners (“PWP”), a leading New York restructuring bank, to assist in the negotiations in late June. Over the course of almost three months of Goldman Sachs negotiation and over twenty turns of a very detailed four page agreement, the Debtors believed that PWP had reached agreement with Goldman Sachs on a restructuring with the exception of an intercreditor issue comprising $2 million of an unsecured swap claim. This term sheet involved no write down in the par value of Goldman Sachs’ outstanding debt, and provided Goldman Sachs with 30% of the equity of the Debtors.


In October, Goldman Sachs informed the Debtors that it instead intended to foreclose on the Resort. When asked in early  November why the restructuring was no longer an alternative, Goldman Sachs stated that its management had changed its mind and preferred to own the Resort. At this meeting the Debtors asked Goldman Sachs for an additional four months to find an alternative capital solution, which Goldman Sachs was prepared to give only in the event the Debtor gave up their rights to file Chapter 11, among other restrictions. At the time, Goldman Sachs told the Debtors that the only other solution would be the introduction of equity in the form of cash to the transaction but that they did not believe that the Debtors were capable of raising additional equity.

Congratulations Goldman, you are now the proud owner of yet another sporting trophy, which ironically was in the same boat as you, needing liquidity, and yet you decided to screw it over. Please remember this next time you come begging at the taxpayer trough. We hope golf players in the South are a little more accommodative and do not mind playing at the course, which will soon need to dig a deep moat around its circumference to protect it from the morts, who will likely not be at all happy that Goldman is the now in charge. Below is an artist's rendering of the type of creatures that will be introduced in the moat.

Full bankruptcy filing (attached).

 

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Sawgrass Ch 11 filing.pdf45.83 KB

When Goldman Sachs writes extended treatises on the impact of snowfall and makes regression analyses of NESIS snowfall scores with payroll impacts, you know Goldman economists i) take their cure from Larry Summers' public caveats, ii) have an extended sense of humor, and iii) have way too much free time on their hands. We share the following GS essay on the second derivative impact of snowfall on the economy, but here is the punchline: "Our models suggest a small decline in payrolls without incorporating the special impact of the snowstorms, or the boost from temporary Census hiring.  Adding approximately 30,000 Census hires suggests unchanged or slightly positive payrolls; subtracting the snowstorm effects suggests a payroll number in the -50,000 to -100,000 range. Our forecast of a decline of 100,000 payroll jobs assumes an impact at the higher end of this range.  Despite this, we are inclined to think the risk remains on the side of a still bigger impact from the snowstorm itself, for two reasons:  1) the larger effects observed in as-first-reported data suggest that lags in reporting itself could be part of a snowstorm’s effect, 2) both the high-impact January 1996 snowstorm and the February 2010 storm hit slightly earlier in the month than others, and this difference in timing might be important in terms of the impact on new hires added to payrolls in the survey week." Since Larry Summers, who one may venture has a pretty good advance look at the NFP #, has warned snowfall will not be "additive" to the NFP per se, any substantial downside surprise will merely be attributed to the vagaries of mother nature, which has put global warming on hold for the time being.

From Goldman Sachs:

The Snowstorms' Impact on February Payrolls (Tilton)

February was an unusually wintry month in the eastern United States, with three significant snowstorms, two of which ranked among the highest-impact storms of the last half-century.  Financial markets are focused on how this may affect the upcoming economic numbers, particularly Friday’s payroll report.

Teasing out the impact of snowstorms on the employment news is a complex endeavor, because no two storms are the same in timing or magnitude.  Both extensive snow and colder-than-usual weather can delay hiring enough to have substantial impact on payrolls, more than a hundred thousand jobs on a few occasions.   Our forecast of a decline of 100,000 payroll jobs assumes the February snowstorms will delay at least this many net hires.  Assuming a return to more normal weather, March payrolls should post a substantial rebound. 

February was an unusually wintry month in the eastern United States.  Three significant snowstorms affected a large part of the East Coast population, with the main snow periods on February 4-7, 9-11, and 25-26. The first two of these each ranked among the 25 highest-impact Northeastern snowstorms of the last half-century, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Weather has the potential to affect a wide variety of economic variables, including retail sales, housing activity, and even industrial production, as we have shown in prior research (see “What’s With the Weather?”, GS US Economics Analyst 07/02, January 12, 2007.)  However, the main focus of financial markets in the near term is Friday’s employment report—the nonfarm payroll number in particular.  Numerous journalists and economists have offered up estimates of the likely impact of the storms.  In the comment that follows, we explain the basis for a snowstorm effect on payrolls and gauge how large it might be this time.

In theory, the main impact of a snowstorm should be a delay in hiring (and possibly firing) activity.  Suppose business shuts down during a period (call it month 1) when payrolls would normally be expanding, and this shutdown delays some hiring into month 2.  If employment would otherwise have been on some steady underlying trend, the effect of the snowstorm will be to push payroll growth below that trend in month 1, with a sharp rebound above trend growth likely in month 2 as employers complete unfinished hiring from the month before.

A quick back-of-the envelope calculation illustrates that the impact could in theory amount to several hundred thousand jobs.  In recent expansions the typical February non-seasonally adjusted net job gain has been around 700,000-800,000 jobs; monthly gross job gains are probably around three times this amount (although the exact number is unclear as the data are only available quarterly).  If a major snowstorm shut down half of United States businesses’ hiring and firing activity for half of the payroll period (i.e roughly two weeks), then the impact would presumably be ½ x ½ x 700-800k, or 175,000-200,000.  If for any reason the hiring process was more susceptible to disruption or delays than firing, then the impact could be as much as three times as large.  Of course, the assumption of a total shutdown in hiring for half the country seems too extreme, but these calculations give a sense of the potential upper bound of impact.

Of course, bad weather might also keep existing employees from making it to work.  This would cause a reduction in hours worked and, for employees paid hourly, a reduction in earnings as well.  Some employees conceivably might not work at all during the payroll period.  However, the absence of these workers should not have any impact on the payroll number reported by the Labor Department.  As we understand it, all individuals listed on company payrolls are counted as employed regardless of how many hours (even zero) they worked during the payroll period.  So, difficulty in commuting or inability to work due to the weather should not have a direct impact on the payroll count.

Therefore, to gauge the impact of the storms on employment we need to focus on how much of an impact they have on net hiring.  The most straightforward way to go about this is simply to look at what happened after major snowstorms in the past.  Not including February’s storms, the NOAA reports eight “major” snowstorms within the past two decades.  (See http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/nesis.php?sort=nesis_desc#rankings for a list.)  As luck would have it, most occurred during or just before the payroll survey week (the week containing the 12th day of the month), and therefore might have had an impact on payrolls.  We exclude two storms that occurred shortly after the payroll survey week; in each case, there were at least three weeks to go before the next payroll survey, so it seems likely that employers would have had time to make up most delays by that point.

The remaining six episodes happen to include the three highest-impact snow events as calculated by the NOAA’s Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS): the “storm of the century” in March 1993, and the severe storms of January 1996 and February 2003.  The NESIS is a population-weighted metric of snowfall designed to “give an indication of a storm’s societal impacts,” so it is a very useful metric for our purposes.

As a rough first estimate of the impact of a storm, we simply take the change in payrolls during the month of the storm versus the average change over the previous three months.  We can then plot this payroll impact versus the NESIS score of the storm to gauge the relationship between storm intensity and employment impact.  In the exhibit below, the points plot the storms and their respective impact; the dotted line is the regression line through these points.  The storms range from “major” storms with a NESIS scale of 4-6 to the 13.2 figure of the March 1993 storm.  The deviation of payrolls from their prior three-month trend (we use as-first-reported changes here) ranges from about +75,000 to -325,000. 

Exhibit 1: Major Snowstorms and Payroll Deviations from Trend

 

The shaded area indicates the likely NESIS score of the combined storms on February 4-7 and February 9-11.  The preliminary scores of these storms are 4.3 and 3.9 respectively, or 8.2 together.  However, the construction of the NESIS scale is nonlinear; if the underlying data from the two storms were processed together the result could be somewhat higher (we have no way of doing the calculation ourselves).  One might also—but probably less plausibly—argue the joint score should be lower than the sum given the brief respite for cleanup between them.  The dotted regression line between the points suggests an impact of 120,000-200,000 on February payrolls.  Note, however, that the three major storms all had an apparent impact at or above the high side of this range, suggesting the potential for an even larger hit in February.

To cross-check this result, we added a historical “dummy variable” for snowstorms to a basic payroll forecasting model including other weather-related variables, estimated over the past two decades.  The dummy variable is significant (with a t-statistic of 2.8) and the fit of the overall model is reasonable, with a standard error of about 100,000.  Two interesting results emerge.  First, including a variable for snowstorms does not meaningfully diminish the impact of temperature variations on payroll growth; these remain highly significant in all formulations.  (For those unfamiliar with our prior work on the topic, warmer-than-usual winter temperatures provide a boost to seasonally adjusted payrolls, so a month-to-month change in temperatures that exceeds normal seasonal changes tends to temporarily increase payroll growth.  The corresponding relationship holds for cooler than normal temperatures.)  

Second, some experimentation shows that essentially all of the explanatory power of the snowstorm variable comes from the January 1996 episode.  When using as-first-reported payroll data, a simple dummy variable for this snowstorm by itself provides more explanatory variable than an indicator incorporating all six episodes.  Other indicators corroborate the outsized impact of the 1996 storm; for example, the number of people who missed work for weather-related reasons that month was nearly three times as large as in any other month in the past quarter-century.  The payroll impact of this episode is (slightly) less of an outlier in fully revised rather than as-first-reported data, suggesting that lags in reporting might themselves have been an issue.

Exhibit 2 below incorporates the knowledge from our model, assessing the snowstorm impact on payrolls with fully revised data, after removing the estimated impact of temperature changes.  The logic here is that snowstorms sometimes—but not always, and not this February—come along with much colder than usual weather, which can intensify their impact on employment.  The pattern, shown by the solid diamonds, is now quite striking—a tightly clustered group of points around a line that suggests a substantially smaller impact from the snow itself, perhaps 50,000 to 100,000 on the payroll report.

Exhibit 2: Snowstorm Impact on Revised Payrolls, Excluding Temperature Effects

 

So, what does this mean for our payroll forecast?  Our models suggest a small decline in payrolls without incorporating the special impact of the snowstorms, or the boost from temporary Census hiring.  (Our standard models do include the effects of temperature changes, which actually should help offset rather than intensify the snowstorm impact.  Since it was substantially colder than usual in the weeks before the January payroll survey, and roughly normal in the weeks up to the February payroll survey, we think January payrolls probably already incorporated a negative weather effect—albeit from temperature rather than snow—which otherwise would have seen a positive “payback” in February.)  Adding approximately 30,000 Census hires suggests unchanged or slightly positive payrolls; subtracting the snowstorm effects suggests a payroll number in the -50,000 to -100,000 range. 

Our forecast of a decline of 100,000 payroll jobs assumes an impact at the higher end of this range.  Despite this, we are inclined to think the risk remains on the side of a still bigger impact from the snowstorm itself, for two reasons:  1) the larger effects observed in as-first-reported data suggest that lags in reporting itself could be part of a snowstorm’s effect, 2) both the high-impact January 1996 snowstorm and the February 2010 storm hit slightly earlier in the month than others, and this difference in timing might be important in terms of the impact on new hires added to payrolls in the survey week.

Wednesday’s ADP Employment Report may provide a useful clue as to the weather effect on February payrolls.  We normally give it little weight because of its spotty track record in forecasting real-time payroll changes.  However, a simple model incorporating temperature effects and the ADP variable suggests that the ADP data are affected by unseasonal variation in temperature, so it’s not a stretch to think they would be affected by other forms of inclement weather.  If the storm did have an exceptionally large impact on hiring, the ADP report should at least hint in that direction.

Andrew Tilton

Jim O'Neill must be in hog, er PIIG, er BRIC heaven: it appears his employer, Goldman Sachs, is about to become the proud owner of O'Neill's all time favorite Manchester United. At least that way the reason for an AIG brand still advertised on the front of all ManU players' shirts will finally make sense: call it bailout advertising, in which AIG (indirectly) paid about $160 billion in taxpayer money to Goldman and a few others so its name would grace the uniforms of Goldman's latest acquisition. According to Sky News, a consortium of investors, which includes Goldman Sachs and law firm Freshfields, affectionately called the Red Knights, is preparing to acquire the soccer team from the much hated Glazer family, which in the span of several years has gotten ManU's debt/GDP ratio (or some other BS metric) to be almost as bad as that of the United States. Alternatively, it is oddly ironic that the bank that does God's work will soon be the owner of the Red Devils. The question: will Lloyd soon be sitting in satan's box at Old Trafford?

Sky's city editor Mark Kleinman, who broke the story, told Sky's Jeff Randall: "I should caveat all this by saying that the Red Knights campaign is at a very early stage, and while it has the support of influential fan bodies such as the Manchester United Supporters’ Trust (MUST), it’s possible that those involved may conclude it’s not ultimately viable."


He added: "Having said that, the summit - the first formal gathering under the Red Knights banner - is the most significant evidence so far of the seriousness of the campaign to win back control of United."

Any serious offer would need to raise around £1bn, Kleinman said.


A statement from the Glazer family said the Old Trafford club was not for sale.


Many Utd fans are bitterly opposed to the Glazer family, staging weekly protests at home games while dressed in green and gold shirts and scarves.


They are angry that the club has been allowed to accrue debts of around £700m. The Glazers' recent £500m bond issue has crystallised opposition among fans to their continued ownership of the club, Kleinman said.


They claim the the debts have prevented manager Sir Alex Ferguson dipping into the transfer market.

With the bulk of England's other soccer teams directly and indirectly owned by the Russian mob, it only seems fitting that Goldman would find its next natural calling to be an involvement in this particular sport.

We look forward to all English soccer referees soon having direct access to Redi, Sonar, Sigma X, and any other "advance" look facilitation systems, which will make team appearances on the pitch irrelevant, as refs will soon know (with at least a 90 minute window) just how the game will end, thus making it a moot affair. This will be doubly true if Fidelity or Putnam are coming to the game.

 

Ron Paul provides a follow up to his last week Q&A with Ben Bernanke, from the weekly column on his congressional website.

Bizarre Spending Habits

Last week I had the opportunity to bring up spending and transparency in two important hearings.  On Wednesday I questioned Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on some highly questionable uses of funds at the Federal Reserve, and on Thursday I asked Secretary of State Hillary Clinton about exorbitant spending at the State Department.

It is extremely important to continue bringing these issues up, especially in light of our difficult economic times, when so many are out of work, as I saw up close in my district at the Oceans of Opportunity Job Fair in Galveston two weeks ago.  Those who are working live with the fear of losing their jobs as they struggle to pay bills.  Meanwhile, Washington is talking of increasing their taxes, something voters were promised, clearly and adamantly, would not happen in this administration.

Government also struggles with money, but the struggle centers on how to get more of your money into government coffers.  Rather than expanding the Federal budget in the face of economic downturn, we should be focusing on eliminating waste and being the very best stewards of public funds that we can possibly be.  Most businesses have had to streamline and cut back in order to survive, and so it is only fair for our government to do the same.

Instead, the State Department is building a $1 billion embassy in London, the most expensive ever built.  The plans even include surrounding it with a moat!  I asked the Secretary of State about this massive expenditure, and she claimed the funds for this were coming from the sale of other properties.  If money can be saved, then save it!  Don’t spend it on such an extravagant structure overseas when people back home can’t find jobs or pay bills.  Not only that, but the administration has committed to doubling foreign aid.  That is one promise that is likely to be kept, despite our economic crisis.

I asked Chairman Bernanke about Federal Reserve agreements with foreign central banks and if he had had any conversations about bailing out Greece, which he flatly denied.  However, he recently announced that the Federal Reserve will be looking into Goldman Sachs’ derivative agreements with Greece.  Goldman Sachs, as we know, has “too big to fail” status with the Fed, so it is conceivable that any Greece-related catastrophic losses at Goldman Sachs will once again be passed on to taxpayers.

Perhaps most sinister are the revelations in Robert Auerbach’s book “Deception and Abuse at the Fed” that $5.5 billion was sent to Saddam Hussein in the 80’s - money that allowed Iraq to build up its military machine to fight Iran prior to the first Gulf War, the very machine turned against our brave men and women within just a few years!  I agree with Bernanke’s characterization of this – it is indeed “bizarre” to think that Americans at the Federal Reserve could engage in this type of behavior, which a some have called “criminal”.  However, Professor Auerbach served as a banking committee investigator, and as an economist at the Treasury Department and at the Federal Reserve.  His claims are hardly without merit.  In fact, they are solidly backed by court rulings and other evidence.

The lack of accountability and transparency in our leaders on government spending is appalling.  We simply must keep pressing these issues and voicing our objections if we are ever to reverse our failed policies.

h/t Bund Vigilante

It is not often that one finds smoking gun reports which refute all claims, such as those by EuroStat and Angela Merkel, in which the offended parties plead ignorance of the fiscal inferno raging around them, kindled by lies, deceit, and blatant mutually-endorsed fraud, and instead, now facing themselves in the spotlight of public fury, put the blame solely on related party participants, such as, in a recent case, Greece and Goldman Sachs. Yet a 2001 report prepared by Gustavo Piga, in collaboration with the Council on Foreign Relations and the International Securities Market Association, not only fits that particular smoking gun description, but the report itself was damning enough of another country, a country which used precisely the same off-market swap arrangement to end up with an interest expense of LIBOR minus 16.77% (in essence the counteparty was paying Italy 16.77% of notional each year as a function of the swap mechanics), in that long ago year of 1995. The country - Italy (for confidentiality reasons referred to in the report as Country M), was at the time panned as the Enron of the European Union due to precisely this kind of off-balance sheet arrangement by the Counsel of Foreign Relations. The counterparty bank: unknown (at least in theory, since the swap was highly confidential, and was referred to as Counterpart N), but considering the critical similarities in the structuring of the swap contract to that used by Greece in 2001, and that ISMA cancelled Piga's press conference discussing his findings out of fear for the academic's life, we can easily venture some guesses as to which banks value their recurring counterparty arrangements more than human life.

And only an idiot (here's looking at you, EuroStat) would miss this striking revelation in the ISMA report made almost 10 years ago, envisioning not only Italy but Greece, which joined the euro on January 1, 2001: "Piga has unearthed some rather striking documentary evidence: an actual swap contract, indicating that one EMU entrant (who, owing to an agreement with the source of the documentation, will remain anonymous) used swaps to mislead other EU governments and institutions as to the size of its budget deficit, so as to falsely suggest compliance with the Maastricht Treaty." Once all is said and done, and both the euro and the eurozone are forgotten history, it will be amusing to observe just how prevalent lies and deceit were in the Eurozone, where apparently it was a daily and thoroughly accepted occurrence to lie, both to others and to oneself, about the real state of financial affairs. Oh, and the "US-zone" which is doing precisely the same complete cover up of its true economic state, is certainly not too far behind.

Disclosures made in this report forced the Council on Foreign Relations to make an explicit comparison between Italy and the greatest corporate fraud of the early 2000's: Enron.

The parallel with the Enron transactions is uncanny. Like Enron, Italy took on debt but chose to represent it as a hedge for a yen bond it had issued in May 1995, which matured in September 1998. As with Enron, the hedge explanation was clearly misleading. If it had been a hedge, the exchange rate used would simply have been the market rate at the time the swap transaction was entered into. Off-market rate swaps were clearly selected for the purpose of producing interest revenue in 1997, with euro entry as the goal.


The Treasury does not deny this. It justifies it, however, using an explanation that is in part irrelevant and that in part implicates it clearly.


The irrelevant part of the explanation is that the Treasury was concerned that a yen appreciation could increase Italy's debt, thus jeopardising the country's hopes of entering the eurozone. So the swaps were structured to protect against its debt rising over the course of 1997. But Italy's debt was 110 per cent of gross domestic product in 1997, well beyond the 60 per cent Maastricht barrier. The European Union never intended to enforce the debt limitation, only the annual deficit limitation. Italy's deficit was forecast to be within striking distance of the 3 per cent barrier and the swaps legally affected only the deficit. The debt argument is a red herring.


The damning part of the explanation is the admission that Italy was taking a cash advance in 1997 against an expected foreign exchange profit in 1998. Under accounting rules, this is simply impermissible. Borrowers cannot use loans to anticipate capital gains on a bond.

In other words, cooking the public debt books in the EU started not with Greece and Goldman in 2001, but with Italy and Counteparty N in 1995; we are fully confident that many more examples will emerge shortly.

How widespread is this sort of financial chicanery among sovereign borrowers? It is very difficult to know, since these deals are done over the counter with no public paper trail. Gustavo Piga, author of the ISMA/ CFR report, uncovered the Italian transaction quite accidentally. But there are powerful reasons for concern.


First, governments have clear incentives to cook the books. The EU continues to impose fiscal expenditure restrictions on eurozone governments, violation of which can result in censure and fines. The International Monetary Fund imposes fiscal conditionality on its client governments, which naturally have a strong incentive to keep the Fund from closing the money spigot. Derivatives can be used to shuffle cash flows through time in ways that current accounting rules do not prevent.


Second, banks are only too willing to market derivatives tricks to their big client governments, particularly when it puts them at the front of the queue for future bond issues and privatisations.


Third, if the integrity of government financial data is fatally undermined, the damage to stock and bond markets will dwarf the "Enron effect" that has recently pummelled the Dow.

We urge everyone to reread the last sentence as many times as needed, until the truth sinks in.

Before we get into the implications, here are the "revelations" (even though these have been part of the public record for nearly ten years) about Italy, which is now certain to attract everyone's attention as the source of potential near-term eurozone destabilization.

Below we present the critical section from Piga's report, a must read for all those who are still unsure how governments used banks such as Goldman Sachs to create borderline legal, off-balance sheet swaps to hide their debt:

Setting the stage


This sub-section provides a real-world example of how sovereign borrowers can use derivatives to window-dress public accounts as a means of achieving short-term political goals. It is by no means a theoretical example, but a real swap transaction undertaken by one of the sovereign borrowers cited in this book, which now belongs to the European monetary union.


In what follows we will call this sovereign borrower “M”. The author was given a copy of the swap contract by a public officer of M. This officer works in a public institution in charge of approving the accounting of derivative transactions entered into and recorded by sovereign borrower M. The public officer had no understanding of the nature of this contract and honestly believed he was giving the author a copy of a derivative contract that did not present accounting problems. This also indicates how officers in charge of verifying that sovereign borrowers implement proper accounting procedures sometimes lack the technical expertise to fulfill their duties optimally.


The swap transaction, translated into English and reproduced in the Appendix, was undertaken in 1996 by M solely to reduce the level of interest expenditure in years 1997 and 1998 - two critical years for the EMU process - so as to keep the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio within the 3% level required by the Stability and Growth Pact. As this transaction only helped postpone interest expenditure, one of its consequences was to raise unduly the level of interest expenditure in the years after 1998.


Had proper national accounting procedures been in place, this transaction would have been recorded without allowing window-dressing of public accounts in 1997 and 1998 at the expense of public account balances after 1998. We will demonstrate that M undertook such a swap transaction only to window-dress its accounts. To do so, we will first show in sub section 4.2.b that standard derivative contracts to achieve proper debt management goals were disregarded because they would not help in substantially decreasing interest expenditure in the years 1997 and 1998. Sub-section 4.2.c describes the swap transaction entered into by sovereign borrower M, reveals its window dressing nature, and documents its impact on the public accounts of sovereign borrower M.


Standard active debt management with derivatives


In 1995, M issued an international 3-year and 3-month yen-denominated bond maturing in 1998 with a face value of JPY 200 billion and a yearly coupon of 2.3%. This bond was sold at par. The net proceeds for sovereign borrower M were y unis, where the uni is the fictitious name we will give to the currency in M. The exchange rate on the day the bond was issued was 193.44 unis for JPY 1.


That same day, domestic (uni) interest rates for a similar maturity were higher than yen interest rates. By issuing the yen-denominated bond instead of a domestic bond in unis, the debt office would have paid less interest on its yen-denominated liability. However, any appreciation of the yen over the life of the bond, if realized, would have made yen-denominated payments more expensive once converted into unis. At issuance (barring superior knowledge on the part of sovereign borrower M as to future movements in the yen/uni exchange rate), issuing in yen or in unis would have looked equally costly to sovereign borrower M. Nevertheless sovereign borrower M decided to issue this yen-denominated bond rather than a domestic uni-denominated bond over the 3-year and 3-month maturity. It is likely that sovereign borrower M issued the yen-denominated bond primarily to achieve greater diversification of its bond portfolio.


In 1996, almost one year and six months after the issuance of the yen-denominated bond, the yen had instead substantially depreciated against the uni. The yen traded at 134.1 unis per yen. The yen-denominated bond had at that date a remaining life to maturity of approximately one year and nine months. Had the yen continued to trade at such low levels compared to those of 1995, the debt office in M would definitely have gained from having issued in 1995 in yen rather than in unis. However, at the date when the yen was trading at 134.1 unis per yen, the debt office in M was still exposed to exchange rate changes in the remaining one-year-and-nine-month’s life of the yen-denominated bond. Had the yen substantially appreciated in that remaining period, M’s debt office would have lost some or all of the earlier gains obtained through the initial depreciation of the yen.


It is at this point that active debt management through derivatives could have been used effectively to achieve a specific goal. Imagine that in 1996 when the yen-denominated bond had a one-year and nine-month residual life to maturity, the sovereign borrower M had entered into a standard oneyear and nine-month JPY 200 billion notional amount cross-currency swap. Such a theoretical standard cross-currency swap would have matured in 1998, on the same date the yen-denominated bond matured.


At maturity, the theoretical currency swap would have required M to pay an amount of unis equal to JPY 200 billion multiplied by the market exchange rate on the day the swap was transacted, 134.1 unis for one yen. In exchange, always at maturity, M would have received JPY 200 billion from its counterpart.


During the life of this theoretical cross currency swap, sovereign borrower M would have paid a short-term floating rate in unis to its counterpart while receiving a yen-denominated fixed swap rate. In 1996 the one-year and nine month yen swap-market rate was approximately 0.75%. To be perfectly hedged against exchange rate risk, sovereign borrower M would have received a 2.3% yen fixed rate, or a fixed payment 155 basis points higher, rather than the swap-market rate equal to 0.75%. In exchange for these extra fixed payments, M’s counterpart would clearly have asked to receive from M larger amounts on the floating-rate leg of the swap. M would have thus paid to its counterpart the uni’s Libor rate plus 155 basis points on a uni-notional amount of JPY 200 billion multiplied by the market exchange rate between the yen and the uni (134.1 unis per yen). Figure 4.1 illustrates this theoretical transaction.



After this theoretical transaction, by eliminating currency risk and turning a yendenominated liability at a low value of the yen into a uni-denominated liability, sovereign borrower M would have locked-in a capital gain by having issued, in 1995, in yen rather than in unis. What matters for our purposes is to show that this gain would have, by and large, not affected interest expenditure in 1997 and 1998, but only affected it from 1999 onwards. In this case, the theoretical transaction we are describing would have proved useless in reducing the budget deficit in 1997 and 1998. Where would the savings arising from this theoretical swap have appeared in the budget of M? Recall that after the theoretical cross-currency swap illustrated in Figure. 4.1, M’s liability would have become a synthetic uni-Libor liability on a notional amount in unis (JPY 200 billion converted at the market exchange rate of 134.1 unis for JPY 1). The lower the yen exchange rate established in the swap contract, the lower this liability would have been. M would therefore have had, through this theoretical currency swap, a lower net cash outflow at maturity than the one it would have had by issuing a domestic  uni-denominated bond in 1995.


Such lower cash outflow due to a lower reimbursement of principal would not have affected the interest expenditure of sovereign borrower M in the years when the crosscurrency swap would have been outstanding (i.e., 1996 to 1998). Instead, it would have decreased the public sector borrowing requirement of M in 1998, when the bond and the swap would have expired. Such a lower public sector borrowing requirement in 1998 would have implied a lower public debt in M in 1998, compared to the level of public debt that M would have had to roll over had it instead issued in unis in 1995. In turn, this lower public debt would have implied lower interest expenditure and lower deficits only from 1999 onwards.

Enter "Counterpart N" or, allegedly, Goldman Sachs

Using derivatives to window-dress public accounts


Had sovereign borrower M wanted to eliminate currency risk due to the issuance of a yen-denominated bond it could have made use of the standard cross-currency swap illustrated in Figure 4.1. By doing so, it would have also locked-in a substantial capital gain due to the yen depreciation that had occurred since the issuance of the yen-denominated bond.


However, such a transaction would have had an impact on M’s interest expenditure only after 1998. We showed in the previous sub-section that such a standard cross-currency swap would have allowed the sovereign borrower to decrease the value of public debt in 1998 and, therefore, to accrue savings in interest expenditure only after 1998.


However, countries like M aiming at entering into the euro area during the period considered were not concerned with the reduction of debt. Rather, they were pressed to limit interest expenditure, especially for 1997, so as to contain the value of the budget deficit. Perhaps political pressure was formidable on debt managers in M, which would have been hard to resist. Whatever the reason, M’s debt office did not enter into a standard cross-currency swap as described in the previous section. Instead, it implemented, through a complicated cross-currency swap, a scheme that transferred the gains described in the previous sub-section to the fiscal years 1997 and 1998. By so doing, M’s debt office lowered interest expenditure in those two years and raised interest expenditure in the years after 1998. It did so by taking advantage of a lack of expertise on the part of officials in charge of monitoring the accounting of such operations.


The cross-currency swap which sovereign borrower M transacted with counterpart “N” (a large market maker in the derivative market) was entered into in 1996 for one year and nine months and matured in 1998. This swap matured on the same day when the yen-denominated bond issued in 1995 expired. In this real swap transaction, counterpart N paid in 1997 and in 1998 a 2.3% yearly fixed interest on a JPY 200 billion notional to M, the sovereign borrower. Also in 1998, when the swap matured, N paid an amount of JPY 200 billion to its counterpart M. Notice that in this way, starting from the day the swap was negotiated, the debt manager in M was perfectly hedged on its original yen-denominated bond liability, just as the debt manager would have been with a standard cross-currency swap transaction (see Figure 4.1).


However the similarities with the previously described standard cross-currency swap contract end here. Indeed, the exchange rate used in the contract (on which the notional amount in unis of M’s paying leg of the swap was set) was not the exchange rate prevailing in the market the day the swap was transacted, 134.1 unis per yen. Rather, the exchange rate used was 193.44 unis per yen, a much higher level than the market level. This implied that at maturity sovereign borrower M paid to counterpart N a much larger amount, 38.668 trillion unis (200 times 193.44 billion), than what it would have paid in a regular cross-currency swap entered into at the market exchange rate.


Finally, the currency swap contract required sovereign borrower M to pay, semiannually starting in 1997, on a uni-notional amount of JPY 200 billion times the 193.44 agreed exchange rate, the uni’s Libor rate minus 1,677 basis points (16.77%). The transaction is synthesized in Figure 4.2 (below).



Sovereign borrowers like M could borrow, at the time when the transaction took place, at levels around Libor with no spread added. It is, therefore, very puzzling that in this case it borrowed at Libor minus 1,677 basis points, which implies a negative interest rate. Sovereign borrower M was therefore going to receive interest payments on both legs of the swap until maturity. Why did it enter into such a strange transaction?


By entering into a cross-currency swap at a higher yen exchange rate (193.44 unis per yen) than the one it could have fixed on the same day (the market exchange rate of 134.1 unis per yen) sovereign borrower M did in fact romise to pay to counterpart N at maturity a much larger amount of unis than it would have done had the swap been transacted at the market exchange rate. Actually, sovereign borrower M paid at maturity approximately 200 multiplied by (193.44-134.1) unis more that it would have paid under a standard cross currency swap.


Sovereign borrower M, in exchange for these extra cash outflows, received from N a series of extra cash inflows during the life of the swap. These cash inflows would not have been part of a standard cross-currency swap transaction. Indeed, counterpart N, instead of receiving uni-Libor rate plus 155 basis points from sovereign borrower M on the floating leg of the swap (as it would have in a standard transaction, see Figure 4.1), received a uni-Libor rate minus 1,688 basis points. This implies that counterpart N paid to sovereign borrower M, in four regular installments every six months starting from 1997 and until the maturity of the swap in 1998, approximately 1,843 basis points per annum more than what it would have had in a standard cross-currency swap transaction.


De facto, the sovereign borrower received four loans from counterpart N, every six months from 1997 to 1998. These loans were paid back at maturity in 1998 by disbursing a greater amount than would have been disbursed had the currency swap been constructed in a standard way.


It is a clever transaction that is initially difficult to comprehend and which hides a simple principle: advancing future cash flows to the present. The transaction in Figure 4.2 had nothing to do with hedging the currency risk in the cash flows related to the underlying yen-denominated liability. Nor did it have anything to do with locking-in with certainty the capital gain that derived from the yen depreciation. These goals could have easily been achieved with a standard cross-currency swap, such as the one shown in Figure 4.1. Rather, the type of transaction that sovereign borrower M entered into allowed the debt management office to receive in advance cash flows that were supposed to be received only in the distant future. The accounting for these cash flows was then implemented as if these represented reductions in interest payments. This accounting choice hid the true nature of the cash inflows, the one of a liability that should impact on the public debt rather than on the budget deficit.

As for the regulatory chaos endorsing or preventing such schemes, here is what Piga had to say about that:

In country A, the author was told: “Maastricht has no exact rule on this, and we would like a rule on it. In A, politicians do not know about these rules, but for us it is scary; if they knew about it they would press for these deals.” In country B, the author was told: “I would love the guidelines to prohibit up-front payments so as to remove any temptation.” In country C, the author was told: “We have a self-imposed, ethical unwritten rule not to use up-front payments. However, we would not like to bring it to the attention of politicians by asking to insert it into the guidelines: That would give them an incentive to put political pressures on us.” When the author asked a debt manager in country C whether politicians would notice such a change in the rules, she said: “Oh yes, they are very careful about these things.” Asked why the politicians would not exert pressure now, if they are so careful, the debt manager did not give an answer. It should be pointed out that not all of these debt managers were in state treasuries. ‘Independent’ agencies are also under pressure from politicians, albeit to a lesser extent. It is worth noting that these political pressures might be particularly intense also on the issue of when to terminate a contract, as positive value transactions would help the budget in a given year in almost all countries.

As to Goldman's culpability, aside from fears of retaliation against all those who report the truth, it seems the "Counterpart N" liability is limited. Goldman did not do anything that was not endorsed and allowed explicitly by host domiciles that benefited explicitly from masking their interest rates as they were entering the EMU. Yet the issue does not end there: when one grasps the extent and severity of such swap transactions, one realizes the massive opportunity for conflict of interest, of mutual blackmail, of the desire for secrecy, and of counterparty risk, which is why Goldman is and has always been the preferred party of interest - just how many other such deals is Goldman on the hook for? Were Hank Paulson to have allowed Goldman to implode, it is likely that most if not all European governments, which one guesses currently have numerous other comparable secret arrangements with "Counterpart N", would have all suffered massive and irreparable losses on existing swap arrangements. This is merely yet another way in which the Federal Reserve-Goldman Sachs complex bailed out the world, however this time using the threat of the unravelling of completely confidential swap arrangements, which were known to at most several high level bureaucrats, and of course Lloyd Blankfein (and Hank Paulson, and Jon Corzine prior).

The author did not expect to be told the whole truth, but hoped to acquire some understanding of the decision-making process in these cases. Two things were learned. First, market makers consult with their legal office, since ignorance of the reason for the sovereign’s request is not legally excusable. Second, while explaining the transaction to the sovereign, the market maker makes sure that all possible risks are presented to the government before signing the deal, so that the government cannot blame the market maker. Interestingly, a market maker told the author that the strategy outlined here is something the industry learned after Merrill Lynch and the Belgian government were engulfed in a conflict that turned out unfavorably for Merrill Lynch. Governments are large and powerful actors, and every precaution has to be taken by market makers to avoid a legal challenge: “My advice to a firm,” one market maker told the author, “is never present a positioning strategy as a hedged strategy. Define which asset you want to hedge against and, if it is a positioning strategy, always show the downside.” The same market maker said: “As for the ethics within our firm, we do look at it very seriously. We do try to see the client’s intention as well. If we do see a window-dressing intention, we discuss it at the highest level, with the chairman. I remember one case when we said no.” Why does this window-dressing per se constitute a reason to halt derivative operations? Governments and market makers (especially the large ones that dominate the derivative market) have a special kind of relationship that is ongoing and often wideranging, including privatizations, syndicated loans, securitizations, asset and liability management, risk management advice and software provision. If a market maker has provided a government with window-dressing advice, window-dressing operations or other inappropriate transactions, it links itself in a tight embrace with the sovereign. Both know something about the counterpart that might hurt them if this activity were to be made public. While it is obvious that it is in their mutual interest not to go on record about such activities, there is also the possibility that one of the two parties might be able to exert undue pressure on the other in future transactions. A market maker might obtain a privatization mandate that it would otherwise not have deserved, possibly damaging the taxpayer or the consumer. A government official might obtain additional advantages, either personal or for the office itself. Keep in mind that such a possibility was not deemed as being so farfetched as to prevent its consideration in the IMF and World Bank guidelines: “Staff involved in debt management should be subject to code-of-conduct and conflict-of-interest guidelines regarding the management of their personal financial affairs. This will help to allay concerns that staff’s personal financial interests may undermine sound debt management practices.”


More generally, concern might arise in counterpart risk management with those counterparts that have a ‘special relationship’ with debt managers for the wrong reasons. We have seen that credit-line ceilings often do not automatically lead to the reduction of exposure to the required level even under normal conditions. How easy would it be to reduce the exposure of a counterpart that has knowledge of a possible improper handling of contracts for accounting purposes by the sovereign borrower? Demonstrating their extreme candor, Danish authorities have underlined the risks of one-to-one relationships in their comprehensive 1998 annual report in a passage on credit-risk management that is worth quoting: “Since the [Danish] central government began to use swaps in debt management in 1983 it has not suffered any loss owing to counterparty default. Certain counterparties used by the central government have faced very serious economic problems, however. A few have ceased to exist or could only continue with the support of public funds or after being acquired by a competitor,” [emphasis added]. In other circumstances it might be tempting to establish a connection between public support for a failing counterpart and its special relationship with the government.

Nearly 8 years before the world was about to end following Lehman's bankruptcy, Piga classified precisely the moral hazard associated with Goldman's too big to fail status, courtesy of the Enron-style accounting treatment that made Goldman an inexorable link at the heart of the viability of the Euro and the European Union. Was Goldman kept alive just to make sure the eurozone did not collapse? We sincerely hope Congressmen and Senators ask Mr. Blankfein this question at the next possible opportunity. And if not that, perhaps it should finally be made public just how many such deals Goldman has underwritten over the past 20 years, what the full masking impact to domestic economies has been as a result, and how many of these deals are currently still outstanding?

As to the next logical question: how many such deals exist, Piga provides the following table of swaps outstanding shortly before the time of the paper's publication, or ~2000.

Following up on this same question, Euromoney made the following observation back when in 2001:

Italy's public debt was around 110% of GDP in 1997 - way over the 60% outlined by Maastricht. As it was so far over the limit, Italy was unlikely to worry about the negligible effect of a foreign exchange loss. Even a large appreciation of the yen was unlikely to have a significant impact on Italy's chances of joining the eurozone. However, the cash advance from the negative interest rate on the swap would have made some difference on  the budget deficit, which stood at 3.2% in 1997. All the political emphasis in the run-up to joining the single currency was on Italy meeting the deficit criteria and showing a move towards reducing its debt. In the end, it failed to do this - the country's debt grew to 120% of GDP in 1999, without causing Italy too many problems with the EU. But it did manage to reduce its deficit to meet the 3% target, though only just, with three months to spare, and this could have meant the difference between being able to join the eurozone or, like Greece, being forced to wait.


In 1997, when Italy's prime minister, Romano Prodi, was canvassing for Italy to be a founder member of the EMU charter, he pointed to the fall in budget deficit, where Italy was one of the stronger of the tested countries. This strengthened Prodi's hand enormously against Germany, which had doubts about Italy's ability to meet the criteria. Indeed, Germany itself had some difficulty in meeting the 3% deficit target.  Back in 1998, several countries' public debt was over the 60% mark - Austria's was 65% of GDP, Sweden's was 75%, Italy's was 121.9% and Belgium's was 121.3%. Greece, the only country to be refused entry to the eurozone in 1998, had a public debt ratio of 106.4%. The reason it was refused, while Belgium and Italy were allowed to join, was that it had a deficit of 4.2%, while those of Italy and Belgium were under the deficit target.

The stunning revelation: Goldman would come to the rescue again and again, likely extracting many pounds of flesh to wave its magice wand and allow countries to not only enter the EU, but to subsequently mooch billions of dollars off of its various structural funds. Without Goldman's assistance Italy would not have been let into the eurozone. And Goldman did some critical window dressing not just Italy and Greece, but very likely most of Europe! We, for one, can't wait for disclosure of all the heretofore confidential swap agreements underwritten by Goldman.

If Greece and Italy are any indication, it only took a phone call by any of these governments to former Goldman CEOs Jon Corzine (latter part of 90's) and Hank Paulson (Goldman CEO until 2006), to arrange the same kind of non-standard, off-market swaps as has now been evidenced were used by both Greece and Italy. After all, keep in mind, the whole purposes of these "Goldman" swaps is to merely reduce public debt interest payment to align with EU and EMU artificially low fiscal requirements, at the expense of debt notional, which is not as constrictive an economic barrier according to Maastricht and other supervisory requirements. When the truth finally comes out that all of Europe's finances over the past 10 years have been a sham, covered up and facilitated very legally by Goldman Sachs, the Euro was collapse under the weight of the decade of lies that have made it seem that the eurozone is an economically viable construct.

As for Mr. Piga's report, on second thought we may have been too harsh on EuroStat. In 2001, Euromoney reported that:

ISMA was concerned enough to cancel a press conference with Gustavo Piga, the author of the report, because it said his safety was not certain.

It is thus very likely that most if not all may have missed it. After all, it was caught by just a few publications at the time, the CFR, which went so far as to claim Italy is Europe's Enron, being, of course, one of them. Yet inquiring minds would be very curious to uncover whether the danger to Mr. Piga's life came from representatives of Country M or Countepart N. If in the distant 2001 disclosure of facts about shady involvements of countries such as Italy and their counterparties such as Goldman Sachs, raised the specter of a threat on a person's life, we dread to imagine just how much other recent facts have been "silenced" over the past 2 years.

Link for absolutely must read, and completely public for the past 8 years report from Gustavo Piga and ISMA.

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Submitted by Darrell Delamaide of OilPrice.com

Crude Oil Hits Ceiling in Week as Hedge Funds Attack Euro

Crude oil broke through the $80 a barrel ceiling repeatedly during the week but kept falling back as hedge funds placed big bets on the Euro’s decline.

The fiscal drama in Greece held global markets hostage much of the week as worries about the impact of the Greek crisis on the euro outweighed comments from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke about continued low interest rates in the U.S., pushing the euro down against the dollar and damping crude prices.

The euro recovered some ground on Friday amid new reports of European aid for Greece after falling to a nine-month low of $1.3440 on Thursday. Germany’s state-owned bank KfW may take part in a planned Greek bond offering next week, according to market reports.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that a small group of elite hedge fund traders have concluded that the euro could be headed to parity with the dollar and their bearish bets are increasing the downward pressure on the 16-nation currency.

The Journal compared the situation to the hedge fund attack on the dollar in 2008. However, the trades are not expected to lead to a collapse of the currency as the attacks of George Soros on the British pound did in 1992, the paper said.

Positive U.S. economic data on Friday, including a revised fourth-quarter GDP annual growth rate of 5.9%, help crude oil futures claw back some of Thursday’s losses and near the $80 threshold again. Nymex’s benchmark West Texas Intermediate settled at $79.66 on Friday, after topping $80 earlier in the week.

In spite of crude’s difficulties in staying above $80, some analysts issued bullish prognoses for energy futures. Goldman Sachs forecast a new trading range of $85 to $95, up from the $70 to $80 of the past several months, amid supply disruptions from the North Sea and Venezuela and the impact of the Total refinery strike, which was resolved earlier this week.

Other analysts, too, looked for fundamental supply and demand considerations to reassert themselves amid the currency turmoil and lift crude oil futures into a higher trading range. Oil futures prices gained more than 9% in February but remained below January’s highs.

Source: http://www.oilprice.com/article-crude-oil-hits-ceiling-in-week-as-hedge-funds-attack-euro.html

By  Darrell Delamaide of OilPrice.com who focus on, Fossil Fuels, Metals, Crude Oil Prices and Geopolitics To find out more visit their website at: http://www.oilprice.com

Many moons ago, July 15, 2009 to be specific, Zero Hedge asked a rather simple question: why does Goldman need a Fed exemption for VaR calculations even though it is a Bank Holding Company. That question, and some others, prompted several members of congress, among whom Alan Grayson and Ron Paul, to shortly thereafter pass our query on to Ben Bernanke.

Ben Bernanke
Chairman
Federal Reserve System
20th Street & Constitution Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20551

Dear Chairman Bernanke:

In the fall, Goldman Sachs secured access to government funding by converting from an investment bank into an ordinary bank.  Despite this shift, the CFO of the company, David Viniar, said last week that the company is continuing to operate as if it were still a high-risk investment bank: “Our model really never changed,” he noted in a quote to Bloomberg.  “We’ve said very consistently that our business model remained the same.” 

This statement seems accurate.  Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve granted a temporary exemption to Goldman Sachs from standard bank holding company Market Risk Rules, allowing the company to continue operating as if it were an investment bank.  The company and its employees have taken full advantage of its new government subsidies, and the retained ability to bet big.  In its most recent quarter, Goldman Sachs earned high profits of $2.7 billion on revenues of $13.76 billion, with 78 percent of this revenue derived from high-risk trading and principal investments.  It paid out much of this revenue in compensation, setting aside a record $772,858 for each employee at an annualized rate.  The company’s own measurement of risk, its Value-at-Risk model, recently showed potential trading losses at $245 million a day, up from $184 million last May. 

Despite its exemption from bank holding company regulations, Goldman Sachs has access to taxpayer subsidies, including FDIC-backed bonds, TARP money (since repaid), counterparty payments funneled through AIG, and an implicit backstop from the taxpayer that allowed a public equity offering in a queasy market.  The only difference between Goldman Sachs today and Goldman Sachs last year is that today, the company is officially gambling with government money.  This is the very definition of “heads we win, tails the taxpayers lose.” 

It is worth noting that there sometimes might be good reasons to grant temporary regulatory exemptions, considering that companies cannot instantly change their business model.  Still, given Goldman Sachs’s last quarter results and public statements that it is not changing its business model, we are worried that the company is using its regulatory freedom to evade capital requirements and take outsized risks with taxpayers on the hook for losses. 

With this in mind, our questions are as follows:

1)   In the letter granting a regulatory exemption to Goldman Sachs, you stated that the SEC-approved VaR models it is now using are sufficiently conservative for the transition period to bank holding company.  Please justify this statement. 

2)  If Goldman Sachs were required to adhere to standard Market Risk Rules imposed by the Federal Reserve on ordinary bank holding companies, how would its capital requirements differ from the current regulatory regime?

3)  What is the difference in exposure to the taxpayer between these two regulatory regimes?

4)  What is the difference in total risk to the portfolio between these two regulatory regimes?

5)  Goldman Sachs stated that “As of June 26, 2009, total capital was $254.05 billion, consisting of $62.81 billion in total shareholders’ equity (common shareholders’ equity of $55.86 billion and preferred stock of $6.96 billion) and $191.24 billion in unsecured long-term borrowings.”  As a percentage of capital, that’s a lot of long-term unsecured debt.  Is any of this coming from the Government?  In this last quarter, how much capital has Goldman Sachs received from the Federal Reserve and ot
her government facilities such as FDIC-guaranteed debt, either directly or indirectly?

6)  Many risk-management experts, most notably best-selling author Nassim Taleb, note that VaR models can dramatically understate risk.  What is your overall view of Taleb’s argument, and of the utility of Value-at-Risk models as regulatory tools?

As we work through legislative conversations regardling systemic risk, these questions are taking on increased significance.  We appreciate your time and the efforts you are making to explain the actions of the Federal Reserve to Congress, and to taxpayers. 

Sincerely,
Alan Grayson, Ron Paul, Walter Jones, Brad Miller, Dan Lipinski, Elijah Cummings, Tom Perriello, Maxine Waters, Jackie Speier, and Maurice Hinchey.

Today Ben Bernanke has responded. We present his response. We will share our commentary and views on this response shortly.

 

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Full expanded blow by blow of today's action from the CBOT via pitnoise.com.

Rumors Vs. Data

Well, well, well, today was an interesting day indeed.  It was a tug-of-war of sorts, with apathy pulling against very…VERY…bad data.  Luckily for the fearless apathetic lot amongst us who couldn’t care less about cascading sovereign debt defaults on the world’s doorstep and increasingly horrific job losses, a hero emerged.  Someone started a rumor that one company among the tens of thousands listed on the exchanges would be buying back shares – a stock split – and the market E X P L O D E D.

As an example, the March S&P futures gapped open much lower due to the poor economic data (coming later) and quickly put in a low at 1084.70.  From there the high frequency traders (HFT) took over and churned the markets back and forth slowly for the entire morning and early afternoon session, thus keeping fear at bay.  Additionally, when the market did swoon a bit, Golden Slacks supported the market by buying large size in the big S&P pit.

In the early afternoon it hit like a mad PPT trader masquerading as a legitimate agent of the NY Federal Reserve: MASSIVE BUYING!  Within minutes the S&P500 along with the other major markets took flight and quickly rallied 1%.  Had a rate cut followed the recent rate hike?  Was the recent horrific economic data revised by the BS artists at the BLS?  Nope – the market took off because it was rumored that AAPL would split its stock 4:1.  Yep.  A rumor.  A *^%$#!G rumor!  About 30-minutes after the short covering carnage started AAPL denied the story…and the market proceeded to ADD to its gains. 

When the S&P500 came upon the 3:15pm close, the market had settled negative, but hardly.  The rally was good for 17.50 points from the low equating to a 1.6% reversal.  And in case you didn’t know, a 1% market move equates to well over $100 billion in market capitalization.  Therefore, this amazing move tacked on ~ $180,000,000,000.00 to the US (non-rigged) market cap.  How nice.

Oh, did I mention this was based on a RUMOR…an UNFOUNDED RUMOR?  Not to worry though folks – you can bet your bottom dollar that the fellas on Fraud Street weren’t about to let a massive rally fade away to nothing.  After the initial period when AAPL denied the rumor and the market churned around 1097.00, then the market went even higher. 

Said another way, Fraud Street kept the gains based on a known FALSE rumor…and then…wait for it….wait for it…I G N O R E D the real news of the morning.  It was a well timed replay of the Greek bailout rumor of Feb. 9th.   How healthy is this market if its best moves are 100% fabricated bull$#it?

I have another question or two: Who benefited from this other than Goldman Sachs?  I wonder how many magical S&P500 at-the-money calls were purchased moments before the explosion?  I wonder if the SEC will investigate?  Would the Lame Stream Media ignore this if a false rumor triggered a 1.6% rout?  OK, I know the answer to the last two – and it’s no.

So what caused the market to fall apart before the open?  Oh, nothing really.  Hmm, let’s see here; we have Greece on the verge of bankruptcy due to a further credit downgrade, the guaranteed spread of this sovereign debt disease to other EU countries, the guaranteed disintegration of several large EU banks, political & social unrest, a fake durable goods data point, and another so-called surprisingly bad weekly jobless claims data point.

Who is surprised by any of this worse than expected bad news?  Oh yeah, only economists.  We covered that yesterday.  Way to go fellas – another EPIC FAIL at the guessing of the weekly data.  (I’m sure glad my Dr. doesn’t “guess” when he treats my ailments.)
“Equities slumped early as the cost of insuring against default on Greek government debt rose a fourth day on concern ratings downgrades will cut the nation’s access to European Central Bank funding.” You can bet on it.  “Greece has to repay more than 20 billion euros ($27 billion) of maturing bonds and bills by the end of May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A Moody’s downgrade may make it harder for the nation’s banks to fund themselves by making Greek government debt ineligible as collateral for European Central Bank loans.”  You can bet on that too.

The Durable Goods report got major headlines from the Lame Stream Media about how bullish the number was.  This is only the case for the headline number.  Responsible for the good headline number was a 126% increase in civilian aircraft orders (these orders can be cancelled, by the way).  Outside of transportation, orders fell 0.6%. Core capital equipment and machinery orders dropped 2.9% and 9.7%, respectively, which are the important ones that determine the direction of the economy.  For all of 2009, durable goods fell a record 20%.  But don’t worry, it “could have” been worse.

Later we find out that economists had expected weekly jobless claims to be 460,000.  It was a surprising 496,000.  Now I’m not a high-falutin’ economist, but I think the latter number is a lot worse than the former.  Let me grab a calculator here…YEP, sure enough – it’s worse.  But some market watchers only pay attention to the four-week moving average to get around the occasional problem of large weekly data.  Yeah, umm, no help here either: this number has risen by 30,000 to 473,750 in the last four-weeks.

But hold on to your hats – what’s this? A rumor you say?  To hell with the facts – buy, buY, bUY, BUY!!!!

With that said, you can see from the attached trading results today we follow the trend, not the news, and NEVER the so-called experts.  In the end we faired well.  However, everything printed here are unmitigated FACTS and you need to know them.  When the day comes that the markets cannot pump up an insane rally on pure nonsensical rumor, but rather sells off on the bad news, at least I can say I tried to warn you.  This market is sick.

To be sure, that day will come.  Its date, however, is unknown.

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”



via www.pitnoise.com

Dear Mr. Bernanke, dear idiots at the SEC (to paraphrase an extremely observant Harry Markopolos), and dear everyone else who is just an empty chatterbox and a mouthpiece for other conflicted interests, who claim baselessly that it is all the CDS traders' fault that Greece is about to be flushed down the toilet. We present to you the ratio of cash to synthetic (CDS) exposure. As Bloomberg points out, the "maximum amount on the line if 10 government defaulted, $108 billion, is 0.98% of their combined $11 trillion in sovereign debt." So these less than 1% marginal players are now blamed for the end of civilization? How about blaming sellers of cash bonds? Or, here's an idea, how about actually looking at the root cause, like for example governments, who with the assistance of Goldman Sachs, have lied for a decade about the true state of their finances, and have misrepresented on sovereign prospectuses all their economic exposure for years, which was subsequently signed off by countless auditors and lawyers. The corruption goes to the very top, and the SEC idiots are now investigating CDS traders? There will be no end to the insanity and lunacy, until there is a revolution in this country, or until CNBC allows a rational and objective person to talk on its network, whichever comes first.

Critical Q&A between Bernanke And Dodd earlier:

Bernanke:

     "Yes, Senator, I just want to say first of all we are looking into a number of questions relating to Goldman Sachs and other companies and their derivatives arrangements with Greece and this issue as well. As you know credit default swaps are properly used as hedging instruments."

Sen. Dodd:

     "Agreed."

Bernanke:

     "The SEC, of course, has been interested in this issue. Obviously using these instruments in a way that potentially destabilizes a company or a country is counterproductive. The SEC will be looking into that. We'll certainly be evaluating what we learn from the activities of the holding companies that we supervise here in the U.S."

Sen. Dodd:

     Well, let me make the request of you here and we'll make a similar request to the SEC. I'm sure all of us on the committee would like to
here very quickly what the response is going to be, if any, either from you or recommendations you would make as well as from the SEC. I'll make that formal request this morning. It's a critical issue for all of us.

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